Electric power load in Brazil: view on the long-term forecasting models

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Resende,Larissa
Data de Publicação: 2018
Outros Autores: Soares,Murilo, Ferreira,Pedro
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Production
Texto Completo: http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0103-65132018000100215
Resumo: Abstract Paper aims This paper aims to discuss how the energy load forecasts used by the System Operator and the main agents of the sector are made, and for what purposes, besides discuss the forecast deviations of the ONS’s and EPE’s models and their consequences and costs to the agents involved. Originality Fill a gap in the Brazilian literature when dealing with the Electric Power Load formally, and the consequences of forecast deviation used by the operator of system. Research method Simulations are carried out to estimate the cost of deviation, in order to assess the impact of the load forecast on the system. Main findings As a result, there is an urgent need to clarify forecasting methods and strategies; to avoid, by the sector agents, justifications that optimistic forecasts are necessary as security measures. Implications for theory and practice There are evidence that small improvements in forecasting models imply significant cost reductions.
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spelling Electric power load in Brazil: view on the long-term forecasting modelsElectric power loadForecastOperations planningBrazilian Interconnected Power System (SIN)Forecast deviationAbstract Paper aims This paper aims to discuss how the energy load forecasts used by the System Operator and the main agents of the sector are made, and for what purposes, besides discuss the forecast deviations of the ONS’s and EPE’s models and their consequences and costs to the agents involved. Originality Fill a gap in the Brazilian literature when dealing with the Electric Power Load formally, and the consequences of forecast deviation used by the operator of system. Research method Simulations are carried out to estimate the cost of deviation, in order to assess the impact of the load forecast on the system. Main findings As a result, there is an urgent need to clarify forecasting methods and strategies; to avoid, by the sector agents, justifications that optimistic forecasts are necessary as security measures. Implications for theory and practice There are evidence that small improvements in forecasting models imply significant cost reductions.Associação Brasileira de Engenharia de Produção2018-01-01info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersiontext/htmlhttp://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0103-65132018000100215Production v.28 2018reponame:Productioninstname:Associação Brasileira de Engenharia de Produção (ABEPRO)instacron:ABEPRO10.1590/0103-6513.170081info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessResende,LarissaSoares,MuriloFerreira,Pedroeng2018-10-05T00:00:00Zoai:scielo:S0103-65132018000100215Revistahttps://www.scielo.br/j/prod/https://old.scielo.br/oai/scielo-oai.php||production@editoracubo.com.br1980-54110103-6513opendoar:2018-10-05T00:00Production - Associação Brasileira de Engenharia de Produção (ABEPRO)false
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Electric power load in Brazil: view on the long-term forecasting models
title Electric power load in Brazil: view on the long-term forecasting models
spellingShingle Electric power load in Brazil: view on the long-term forecasting models
Resende,Larissa
Electric power load
Forecast
Operations planning
Brazilian Interconnected Power System (SIN)
Forecast deviation
title_short Electric power load in Brazil: view on the long-term forecasting models
title_full Electric power load in Brazil: view on the long-term forecasting models
title_fullStr Electric power load in Brazil: view on the long-term forecasting models
title_full_unstemmed Electric power load in Brazil: view on the long-term forecasting models
title_sort Electric power load in Brazil: view on the long-term forecasting models
author Resende,Larissa
author_facet Resende,Larissa
Soares,Murilo
Ferreira,Pedro
author_role author
author2 Soares,Murilo
Ferreira,Pedro
author2_role author
author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Resende,Larissa
Soares,Murilo
Ferreira,Pedro
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Electric power load
Forecast
Operations planning
Brazilian Interconnected Power System (SIN)
Forecast deviation
topic Electric power load
Forecast
Operations planning
Brazilian Interconnected Power System (SIN)
Forecast deviation
description Abstract Paper aims This paper aims to discuss how the energy load forecasts used by the System Operator and the main agents of the sector are made, and for what purposes, besides discuss the forecast deviations of the ONS’s and EPE’s models and their consequences and costs to the agents involved. Originality Fill a gap in the Brazilian literature when dealing with the Electric Power Load formally, and the consequences of forecast deviation used by the operator of system. Research method Simulations are carried out to estimate the cost of deviation, in order to assess the impact of the load forecast on the system. Main findings As a result, there is an urgent need to clarify forecasting methods and strategies; to avoid, by the sector agents, justifications that optimistic forecasts are necessary as security measures. Implications for theory and practice There are evidence that small improvements in forecasting models imply significant cost reductions.
publishDate 2018
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2018-01-01
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0103-65132018000100215
url http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0103-65132018000100215
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv 10.1590/0103-6513.170081
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv text/html
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Associação Brasileira de Engenharia de Produção
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Associação Brasileira de Engenharia de Produção
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Production v.28 2018
reponame:Production
instname:Associação Brasileira de Engenharia de Produção (ABEPRO)
instacron:ABEPRO
instname_str Associação Brasileira de Engenharia de Produção (ABEPRO)
instacron_str ABEPRO
institution ABEPRO
reponame_str Production
collection Production
repository.name.fl_str_mv Production - Associação Brasileira de Engenharia de Produção (ABEPRO)
repository.mail.fl_str_mv ||production@editoracubo.com.br
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