Panicum maximum cv. Tanzânia: climate trends and regional pasture production in Brazil.

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: PEZZOPANE, J. R. M.
Data de Publicação: 2016
Outros Autores: SANTOS, P. M., EVANGELISTA, S. R. M., BOSI, C., CAVALCANTE, A. C. R., BETTIOL, G. M., GOMIDE, C. A. de M., PELLEGRINO, G. Q.
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Institucional da EMBRAPA (Repository Open Access to Scientific Information from EMBRAPA - Alice)
Texto Completo: http://www.alice.cnptia.embrapa.br/alice/handle/doc/1059630
https://doi.org/10.1111/gfs.12229
Resumo: Projected change in forage production under a range of climate scenarios is important for the evaluation of the impacts of global climate change on pasture-based livestock production systems in Brazil. We evaluated the effects of regional climate trends on Panicum maximum cv. Tanzânia production, predicted by agro-meteorological model considering the sum of degree days and corrected by a water availa bility index. Data from Brazilian weather stations (1963?2009) were considered as the current climate (baseline), and future scenarios, based on contrasting scenarios interms of increased temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentrations (high and low increases), were determined for 2013?2040 (2025 scenario) and for 2043?2070 (2055 scenario). Predicted baseline scenarios indicated that there are regional and seasonal variations in P. maximum production related to variation intemperature and water availability during the year. Production was lower in the Northeast region and higher in the rainforest area. Total annual productionunder future climate scenarios was predicted toincrease by up to 20% for most of the Brazilian area, mainly due to temperature increase, according to each climate model and scenario evaluated. The highest increase in forage production is expected to be in the South, Southeast and Central-west areas of Brazil. In these regions, future climate scenarios will not lead to changes in the seasonal production, with largerincreases in productivity during the summer. Climate risk is expected to decrease, as the probability of occurrence of low forage productions will be lower. Due to the predicted increase in temperature and decrease in rainfall in the Northeast area, P. maximum production is expected to decrease, mainly when considering scenarios based on the PRECIS model for the 2055 scenario.
id EMBR_d5c33c945b3ee3250fe93edfe1713f57
oai_identifier_str oai:www.alice.cnptia.embrapa.br:doc/1059630
network_acronym_str EMBR
network_name_str Repositório Institucional da EMBRAPA (Repository Open Access to Scientific Information from EMBRAPA - Alice)
repository_id_str 2154
spelling Panicum maximum cv. Tanzânia: climate trends and regional pasture production in Brazil.ETA modelGlobal climate changesGrowing degree daysPRECIS modelPlanta forrageirawater balanceProjected change in forage production under a range of climate scenarios is important for the evaluation of the impacts of global climate change on pasture-based livestock production systems in Brazil. We evaluated the effects of regional climate trends on Panicum maximum cv. Tanzânia production, predicted by agro-meteorological model considering the sum of degree days and corrected by a water availa bility index. Data from Brazilian weather stations (1963?2009) were considered as the current climate (baseline), and future scenarios, based on contrasting scenarios interms of increased temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentrations (high and low increases), were determined for 2013?2040 (2025 scenario) and for 2043?2070 (2055 scenario). Predicted baseline scenarios indicated that there are regional and seasonal variations in P. maximum production related to variation intemperature and water availability during the year. Production was lower in the Northeast region and higher in the rainforest area. Total annual productionunder future climate scenarios was predicted toincrease by up to 20% for most of the Brazilian area, mainly due to temperature increase, according to each climate model and scenario evaluated. The highest increase in forage production is expected to be in the South, Southeast and Central-west areas of Brazil. In these regions, future climate scenarios will not lead to changes in the seasonal production, with largerincreases in productivity during the summer. Climate risk is expected to decrease, as the probability of occurrence of low forage productions will be lower. Due to the predicted increase in temperature and decrease in rainfall in the Northeast area, P. maximum production is expected to decrease, mainly when considering scenarios based on the PRECIS model for the 2055 scenario.CARLOS AUGUSTO DE MIRANDA GOMIDE, CNPGL.PEZZOPANE, J. R. M.SANTOS, P. M.EVANGELISTA, S. R. M.BOSI, C.CAVALCANTE, A. C. R.BETTIOL, G. M.GOMIDE, C. A. de M.PELLEGRINO, G. Q.2022-09-29T20:09:30Z2022-09-29T20:09:30Z2016-12-292016info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleGrass and forage science, v. 72, n. 1, p. 104-117, 2016.http://www.alice.cnptia.embrapa.br/alice/handle/doc/1059630https://doi.org/10.1111/gfs.12229enginfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Institucional da EMBRAPA (Repository Open Access to Scientific Information from EMBRAPA - Alice)instname:Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária (Embrapa)instacron:EMBRAPA2022-09-29T20:09:39Zoai:www.alice.cnptia.embrapa.br:doc/1059630Repositório InstitucionalPUBhttps://www.alice.cnptia.embrapa.br/oai/requestopendoar:21542022-09-29T20:09:39falseRepositório InstitucionalPUBhttps://www.alice.cnptia.embrapa.br/oai/requestcg-riaa@embrapa.bropendoar:21542022-09-29T20:09:39Repositório Institucional da EMBRAPA (Repository Open Access to Scientific Information from EMBRAPA - Alice) - Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária (Embrapa)false
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Panicum maximum cv. Tanzânia: climate trends and regional pasture production in Brazil.
title Panicum maximum cv. Tanzânia: climate trends and regional pasture production in Brazil.
spellingShingle Panicum maximum cv. Tanzânia: climate trends and regional pasture production in Brazil.
PEZZOPANE, J. R. M.
ETA model
Global climate changes
Growing degree days
PRECIS model
Planta forrageira
water balance
title_short Panicum maximum cv. Tanzânia: climate trends and regional pasture production in Brazil.
title_full Panicum maximum cv. Tanzânia: climate trends and regional pasture production in Brazil.
title_fullStr Panicum maximum cv. Tanzânia: climate trends and regional pasture production in Brazil.
title_full_unstemmed Panicum maximum cv. Tanzânia: climate trends and regional pasture production in Brazil.
title_sort Panicum maximum cv. Tanzânia: climate trends and regional pasture production in Brazil.
author PEZZOPANE, J. R. M.
author_facet PEZZOPANE, J. R. M.
SANTOS, P. M.
EVANGELISTA, S. R. M.
BOSI, C.
CAVALCANTE, A. C. R.
BETTIOL, G. M.
GOMIDE, C. A. de M.
PELLEGRINO, G. Q.
author_role author
author2 SANTOS, P. M.
EVANGELISTA, S. R. M.
BOSI, C.
CAVALCANTE, A. C. R.
BETTIOL, G. M.
GOMIDE, C. A. de M.
PELLEGRINO, G. Q.
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv CARLOS AUGUSTO DE MIRANDA GOMIDE, CNPGL.
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv PEZZOPANE, J. R. M.
SANTOS, P. M.
EVANGELISTA, S. R. M.
BOSI, C.
CAVALCANTE, A. C. R.
BETTIOL, G. M.
GOMIDE, C. A. de M.
PELLEGRINO, G. Q.
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv ETA model
Global climate changes
Growing degree days
PRECIS model
Planta forrageira
water balance
topic ETA model
Global climate changes
Growing degree days
PRECIS model
Planta forrageira
water balance
description Projected change in forage production under a range of climate scenarios is important for the evaluation of the impacts of global climate change on pasture-based livestock production systems in Brazil. We evaluated the effects of regional climate trends on Panicum maximum cv. Tanzânia production, predicted by agro-meteorological model considering the sum of degree days and corrected by a water availa bility index. Data from Brazilian weather stations (1963?2009) were considered as the current climate (baseline), and future scenarios, based on contrasting scenarios interms of increased temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentrations (high and low increases), were determined for 2013?2040 (2025 scenario) and for 2043?2070 (2055 scenario). Predicted baseline scenarios indicated that there are regional and seasonal variations in P. maximum production related to variation intemperature and water availability during the year. Production was lower in the Northeast region and higher in the rainforest area. Total annual productionunder future climate scenarios was predicted toincrease by up to 20% for most of the Brazilian area, mainly due to temperature increase, according to each climate model and scenario evaluated. The highest increase in forage production is expected to be in the South, Southeast and Central-west areas of Brazil. In these regions, future climate scenarios will not lead to changes in the seasonal production, with largerincreases in productivity during the summer. Climate risk is expected to decrease, as the probability of occurrence of low forage productions will be lower. Due to the predicted increase in temperature and decrease in rainfall in the Northeast area, P. maximum production is expected to decrease, mainly when considering scenarios based on the PRECIS model for the 2055 scenario.
publishDate 2016
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2016-12-29
2016
2022-09-29T20:09:30Z
2022-09-29T20:09:30Z
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv Grass and forage science, v. 72, n. 1, p. 104-117, 2016.
http://www.alice.cnptia.embrapa.br/alice/handle/doc/1059630
https://doi.org/10.1111/gfs.12229
identifier_str_mv Grass and forage science, v. 72, n. 1, p. 104-117, 2016.
url http://www.alice.cnptia.embrapa.br/alice/handle/doc/1059630
https://doi.org/10.1111/gfs.12229
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositório Institucional da EMBRAPA (Repository Open Access to Scientific Information from EMBRAPA - Alice)
instname:Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária (Embrapa)
instacron:EMBRAPA
instname_str Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária (Embrapa)
instacron_str EMBRAPA
institution EMBRAPA
reponame_str Repositório Institucional da EMBRAPA (Repository Open Access to Scientific Information from EMBRAPA - Alice)
collection Repositório Institucional da EMBRAPA (Repository Open Access to Scientific Information from EMBRAPA - Alice)
repository.name.fl_str_mv Repositório Institucional da EMBRAPA (Repository Open Access to Scientific Information from EMBRAPA - Alice) - Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária (Embrapa)
repository.mail.fl_str_mv cg-riaa@embrapa.br
_version_ 1794503532426035200