Project Risk Analysis: An Application of the Monte Carlo Method in a Company of the Furniture Sector

• Autor(a) principal: Amorim, Fernando Rodrigues de
• Data de Publicação: 2018
• Outros Autores: Abreu, Pedro Henrique Camargo de, Patino, Marco Tulio Ospina, Terra, Leonardo Augusto Amaral
• Tipo de documento: Artigo
• Idioma: por
• Título da fonte: Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies
• Texto Completo: https://www.revistafuture.org/FSRJ/article/view/314
• topic: Decision; Project management; Investment; Strategy; Viability; Decisão; Gerenciamento de projetos; Investimento; Estratégia; Viabilidade

Globalization is a phenomenon that is present in modern society and, with its expansion, it is essential that companies can meet the constant demands of the market, but for this, it is necessary to make the best decisions and deal with various adversities related to the economy, competition, management, among others. The success of investment projects is determined by a set of techniques that must be applied so as not to compromise the viability of the project. When this viability is surrounded by uncertainties, a useful alternative to knowing the risks is the use of the Monte Carlo method. The present work aims to address the risk factors in a company of the furniture sector, using the Monte Carlo simulation to analyze the viability of this project. The methodology adopted was developed from a case study, through an exploratory research. The results showed that the investment project is viable, estimating a return between the 4th and 5th year of the project, in addition, the balance after the 10 years of investment would be around R$ 4,128,211.63, a value that represents 161.25% of the initial investment.