Avaliação de modelos de estimativa de produtividade da cana-de- açúcar irrigada em Jaíba-MG

• Autor(a) principal: Oliveira, Henrique Faria de
• Data de Publicação: 2010
• Tipo de documento: Dissertação
• Idioma: por
• Título da fonte: LOCUS Repositório Institucional da UFV
• Texto Completo: http://locus.ufv.br/handle/123456789/5240
• topic: Função de produção; Evapotranspiração; Irrigação; Cana-de-açúcar; Production function; Evapotranspiration; Irrigation; Sugarcane; CNPQ::CIENCIAS AGRARIAS::AGRONOMIA::AGROMETEOROLOGIA

The sugarcane crop is subjected during their growth to different environmental conditions, and agricultural yield directly affected by these conditions. Yield models become important tools in order to supply estimates of crop yield along to characterize management alternatives, increasing the efficiency of management and strategic decisions. Information technology is an important tool in this process and has been increasingly used for collecting and analyzing data that are used as the basis of their decisions. The objective of this work was included in the software Irriplus estimated yield of crops models, using the Stewart and Mantovani models to estimate the real productivity and Method of Agroecological Zone (MAZ) to estimate the maximum productivity. Besides the models, a methodology of multiple linear regressions was developed to explain the factors that are influencing the yield crop and generate yield models from historical data. To evaluate the models, was used descriptive analysis and analysis tests comparing the real and estimated yield. Statistical tests were paired t-test, relative error percentage (REP) and mean absolute error (MAE). Was used real yield data of irrigated sugarcane RB 86-7515, crops xiv 2007/2008 and 2008/2009, in the Jaíba city of Minas Gerais state. The Stewart Model requires as input the maximum yield that was estimated by MAZ in two crops. In the 2007/2008 crop, the model estimated the average productivity at 113.58 t ha-1, while the real yield average was 113.47 t ha-1, the MAE was equal 10.10. In the 2008/2009 crop, the model estimated the average productivity at 121.81 t ha-1, while the real yield average was 121.81 t ha-1, the MAE was equal 8.02. In both crops the paired t-test showed no significant difference between the average yields. The Mantovani model used the same maximum yield of the model of Stewart, estimated by MAZ. In the 2007/2008 crop, the model estimated the average productivity at 198.13 t ha-1, while the real yield average was 113.47 t ha-1, the MAE was equal 84.66. In the 2008/2009 crop, the model estimated the average productivity at 154.81 t ha-1, while the real yield average was 121.81 t ha-1, the MAE was equal 32.72. In both crops the paired t-test showed significant difference between the average yields and the yield estimated overestimated the real yield. An equation was fitted by multiple linear regression using data from the 2007/2008 crop, related variables: total irrigation required, total capacity of the soil water, available soil water, reference evapotranspiration, crop evapotranspiration and maximum crop evapotranspiration. The equation was evaluated in the 2008/2009 crop for yield estimated. The equation estimated the average productivity at 122.41 t ha-1, while the real yield average was 121.81 t ha-1, the MAE was equal 7.07. The paired t-test showed no significant difference between the average yields.