Increase in the number of explosive low‒level cyclones around King George Island in the last three decades
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2022 |
Outros Autores: | , , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciências (Online) |
Texto Completo: | http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0001-37652022000201116 |
Resumo: | Abstract This paper documents an increase in the number of observed explosive cyclones (EC) at King George Island, South Shetland Islands, Antarctica, over the 1989‒2020 period. In ECs at 60o latitudes the surface atmospheric pressure drops ≥24 hPA in 24 hours. The annual EC frequency time series shows a significant positive trend of ~2.7 cyclones/decade, with a break in 2003 and average numbers of 7.3 and 11.8 events before and after that break, respectively. The increase follows closely earlier documented global sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly trends for the 1981‒2018 period, partially attributed to global warming and to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Connections between EC frequency and SST might occur through variations in SST in the southeastern Pacific and southwestern Atlantic, with anomalous cold conditions favoring an increase in ECs. We also found close relations between the number of ECs with simultaneous occurrences of PDO and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation in opposite phases, so that after 2003 they were in the cold and warm phases, respectively, and vice-versa before 2003. Both low-frequency modes seem to modulate the number of ECs. As per the authors knowledge these results have not been discussed before and may help climate modeling studies and weather forecasts. |
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Increase in the number of explosive low‒level cyclones around King George Island in the last three decadesexplosive cyclonesclimate variabilitysea surface temperaturetrendslow-frequency variabilityAbstract This paper documents an increase in the number of observed explosive cyclones (EC) at King George Island, South Shetland Islands, Antarctica, over the 1989‒2020 period. In ECs at 60o latitudes the surface atmospheric pressure drops ≥24 hPA in 24 hours. The annual EC frequency time series shows a significant positive trend of ~2.7 cyclones/decade, with a break in 2003 and average numbers of 7.3 and 11.8 events before and after that break, respectively. The increase follows closely earlier documented global sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly trends for the 1981‒2018 period, partially attributed to global warming and to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Connections between EC frequency and SST might occur through variations in SST in the southeastern Pacific and southwestern Atlantic, with anomalous cold conditions favoring an increase in ECs. We also found close relations between the number of ECs with simultaneous occurrences of PDO and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation in opposite phases, so that after 2003 they were in the cold and warm phases, respectively, and vice-versa before 2003. Both low-frequency modes seem to modulate the number of ECs. As per the authors knowledge these results have not been discussed before and may help climate modeling studies and weather forecasts.Academia Brasileira de Ciências2022-01-01info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersiontext/htmlhttp://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0001-37652022000201116Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciências v.94 suppl.1 2022reponame:Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciências (Online)instname:Academia Brasileira de Ciências (ABC)instacron:ABC10.1590/0001-3765202220210633info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessSETZER,ALBERTO W.KAYANO,MARY T.OLIVEIRA,MARCELO R.CERÓN,WILMAR L.ROSA,MARCELO B.eng2022-04-25T00:00:00Zoai:scielo:S0001-37652022000201116Revistahttp://www.scielo.br/aabchttps://old.scielo.br/oai/scielo-oai.php||aabc@abc.org.br1678-26900001-3765opendoar:2022-04-25T00:00Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciências (Online) - Academia Brasileira de Ciências (ABC)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Increase in the number of explosive low‒level cyclones around King George Island in the last three decades |
title |
Increase in the number of explosive low‒level cyclones around King George Island in the last three decades |
spellingShingle |
Increase in the number of explosive low‒level cyclones around King George Island in the last three decades SETZER,ALBERTO W. explosive cyclones climate variability sea surface temperature trends low-frequency variability |
title_short |
Increase in the number of explosive low‒level cyclones around King George Island in the last three decades |
title_full |
Increase in the number of explosive low‒level cyclones around King George Island in the last three decades |
title_fullStr |
Increase in the number of explosive low‒level cyclones around King George Island in the last three decades |
title_full_unstemmed |
Increase in the number of explosive low‒level cyclones around King George Island in the last three decades |
title_sort |
Increase in the number of explosive low‒level cyclones around King George Island in the last three decades |
author |
SETZER,ALBERTO W. |
author_facet |
SETZER,ALBERTO W. KAYANO,MARY T. OLIVEIRA,MARCELO R. CERÓN,WILMAR L. ROSA,MARCELO B. |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
KAYANO,MARY T. OLIVEIRA,MARCELO R. CERÓN,WILMAR L. ROSA,MARCELO B. |
author2_role |
author author author author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
SETZER,ALBERTO W. KAYANO,MARY T. OLIVEIRA,MARCELO R. CERÓN,WILMAR L. ROSA,MARCELO B. |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
explosive cyclones climate variability sea surface temperature trends low-frequency variability |
topic |
explosive cyclones climate variability sea surface temperature trends low-frequency variability |
description |
Abstract This paper documents an increase in the number of observed explosive cyclones (EC) at King George Island, South Shetland Islands, Antarctica, over the 1989‒2020 period. In ECs at 60o latitudes the surface atmospheric pressure drops ≥24 hPA in 24 hours. The annual EC frequency time series shows a significant positive trend of ~2.7 cyclones/decade, with a break in 2003 and average numbers of 7.3 and 11.8 events before and after that break, respectively. The increase follows closely earlier documented global sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly trends for the 1981‒2018 period, partially attributed to global warming and to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Connections between EC frequency and SST might occur through variations in SST in the southeastern Pacific and southwestern Atlantic, with anomalous cold conditions favoring an increase in ECs. We also found close relations between the number of ECs with simultaneous occurrences of PDO and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation in opposite phases, so that after 2003 they were in the cold and warm phases, respectively, and vice-versa before 2003. Both low-frequency modes seem to modulate the number of ECs. As per the authors knowledge these results have not been discussed before and may help climate modeling studies and weather forecasts. |
publishDate |
2022 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2022-01-01 |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0001-37652022000201116 |
url |
http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0001-37652022000201116 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
10.1590/0001-3765202220210633 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
text/html |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Academia Brasileira de Ciências |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Academia Brasileira de Ciências |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciências v.94 suppl.1 2022 reponame:Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciências (Online) instname:Academia Brasileira de Ciências (ABC) instacron:ABC |
instname_str |
Academia Brasileira de Ciências (ABC) |
instacron_str |
ABC |
institution |
ABC |
reponame_str |
Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciências (Online) |
collection |
Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciências (Online) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciências (Online) - Academia Brasileira de Ciências (ABC) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
||aabc@abc.org.br |
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1754302871691591680 |