Multi-generational SIR modeling: Determination of parameters, epidemiological forecasting and age-dependent vaccination policies
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2021 |
Outros Autores: | , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital) |
Texto Completo: | https://hdl.handle.net/10438/32285 |
Resumo: | We use an age-dependent SIR system of equations to model the evolution of the COVID-19. Parameters that measure the amount of interaction in different locations (home, work, school, other) are approximated from in-sample data using a random optimization scheme, and indicate changes in social distancing along the course of the pandemic. That allows the estimation of the time evolution of classical and age-dependent reproduction numbers. With those parameters we predict the disease dynamics, and compare our results with out-of-sample data from the City of Rio de Janeiro. Finally, we provide a numerical investigation regarding age-based vaccination policies, shedding some light on whether is preferable to vaccinate those at most risk (the elderly) or those who spread the disease the most (the youngest). There is no clear upshot, as the results depend on the age of those immunized, contagious parameters, vaccination schedules and efficiency. |
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Campos, Eduardo LimaCysne, Rubens PenhaMadureira, Alexandre L.Mendes, Gélcio L. Q.Escolas::EPGE2022-07-29T15:03:59Z2022-07-29T15:03:59Z2021Infectious Disease Modelling 6 (2021) 751-765https://hdl.handle.net/10438/32285We use an age-dependent SIR system of equations to model the evolution of the COVID-19. Parameters that measure the amount of interaction in different locations (home, work, school, other) are approximated from in-sample data using a random optimization scheme, and indicate changes in social distancing along the course of the pandemic. That allows the estimation of the time evolution of classical and age-dependent reproduction numbers. With those parameters we predict the disease dynamics, and compare our results with out-of-sample data from the City of Rio de Janeiro. Finally, we provide a numerical investigation regarding age-based vaccination policies, shedding some light on whether is preferable to vaccinate those at most risk (the elderly) or those who spread the disease the most (the youngest). There is no clear upshot, as the results depend on the age of those immunized, contagious parameters, vaccination schedules and efficiency.engKeAiCovid 19EpidemiologyVaccinationCompartmental modelingEpidemiologiaVacinaçãoEconomiaCOVID-19 Pandemia, 2020-EpidemiologiaMulti-generational SIR modeling: Determination of parameters, epidemiological forecasting and age-dependent vaccination policiesinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articlereponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital)instname:Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV)instacron:FGVinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessORIGINALmulti.pdfmulti.pdfapplication/pdf937882https://repositorio.fgv.br/bitstreams/d03a1cb8-e92f-497c-9ae2-bb4d8b564e31/download213d9cfda9d08d64c7dbe49c5d444e6fMD51LICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-84707https://repositorio.fgv.br/bitstreams/81e5c3ad-6c34-4684-99a4-1395163c1504/downloaddfb340242cced38a6cca06c627998fa1MD52TEXTmulti.pdf.txtmulti.pdf.txtExtracted 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dc.title.por.fl_str_mv |
Multi-generational SIR modeling: Determination of parameters, epidemiological forecasting and age-dependent vaccination policies |
title |
Multi-generational SIR modeling: Determination of parameters, epidemiological forecasting and age-dependent vaccination policies |
spellingShingle |
Multi-generational SIR modeling: Determination of parameters, epidemiological forecasting and age-dependent vaccination policies Campos, Eduardo Lima Covid 19 Epidemiology Vaccination Compartmental modeling Epidemiologia Vacinação Economia COVID-19 Pandemia, 2020- Epidemiologia |
title_short |
Multi-generational SIR modeling: Determination of parameters, epidemiological forecasting and age-dependent vaccination policies |
title_full |
Multi-generational SIR modeling: Determination of parameters, epidemiological forecasting and age-dependent vaccination policies |
title_fullStr |
Multi-generational SIR modeling: Determination of parameters, epidemiological forecasting and age-dependent vaccination policies |
title_full_unstemmed |
Multi-generational SIR modeling: Determination of parameters, epidemiological forecasting and age-dependent vaccination policies |
title_sort |
Multi-generational SIR modeling: Determination of parameters, epidemiological forecasting and age-dependent vaccination policies |
author |
Campos, Eduardo Lima |
author_facet |
Campos, Eduardo Lima Cysne, Rubens Penha Madureira, Alexandre L. Mendes, Gélcio L. Q. |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Cysne, Rubens Penha Madureira, Alexandre L. Mendes, Gélcio L. Q. |
author2_role |
author author author |
dc.contributor.unidadefgv.por.fl_str_mv |
Escolas::EPGE |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Campos, Eduardo Lima Cysne, Rubens Penha Madureira, Alexandre L. Mendes, Gélcio L. Q. |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Covid 19 Epidemiology Vaccination Compartmental modeling Epidemiologia Vacinação |
topic |
Covid 19 Epidemiology Vaccination Compartmental modeling Epidemiologia Vacinação Economia COVID-19 Pandemia, 2020- Epidemiologia |
dc.subject.area.por.fl_str_mv |
Economia |
dc.subject.bibliodata.por.fl_str_mv |
COVID-19 Pandemia, 2020- Epidemiologia |
description |
We use an age-dependent SIR system of equations to model the evolution of the COVID-19. Parameters that measure the amount of interaction in different locations (home, work, school, other) are approximated from in-sample data using a random optimization scheme, and indicate changes in social distancing along the course of the pandemic. That allows the estimation of the time evolution of classical and age-dependent reproduction numbers. With those parameters we predict the disease dynamics, and compare our results with out-of-sample data from the City of Rio de Janeiro. Finally, we provide a numerical investigation regarding age-based vaccination policies, shedding some light on whether is preferable to vaccinate those at most risk (the elderly) or those who spread the disease the most (the youngest). There is no clear upshot, as the results depend on the age of those immunized, contagious parameters, vaccination schedules and efficiency. |
publishDate |
2021 |
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv |
2021 |
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv |
2022-07-29T15:03:59Z |
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv |
2022-07-29T15:03:59Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
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article |
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publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.citation.fl_str_mv |
Infectious Disease Modelling 6 (2021) 751-765 |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://hdl.handle.net/10438/32285 |
identifier_str_mv |
Infectious Disease Modelling 6 (2021) 751-765 |
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https://hdl.handle.net/10438/32285 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
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eng |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
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openAccess |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
KeAi |
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KeAi |
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reponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital) instname:Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV) instacron:FGV |
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