Assessing the risk zones of Chagas' disease in Chile, in a world marked by global climatic change
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2018 |
Outros Autores: | , , , , , , , , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz |
Texto Completo: | http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0074-02762018000100024 |
Resumo: | BACKGROUND Vector transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi appears to be interrupted in Chile; however, data show increasing incidence of Chagas' disease, raising concerns that there may be a reemerging problem. OBJECTIVE To estimate the actual risk in a changing world it is necessary to consider the historical vector distribution and correlate this distribution with the presence of cases and climate change. METHODS Potential distribution models of Triatoma infestans and Chagas disease were performed using Maxent, a machine-learning method. FINDINGS Climate change appears to play a major role in the reemergence of Chagas' disease and T. infestans in Chile. The distribution of both T. infestans and Chagas' disease correlated with maximum temperature, and the precipitation during the driest month. The overlap of Chagas' disease and T. infestans distribution areas was high. The distribution of T. infestans, under two global change scenarios, showed a minimal reduction tendency in suitable areas. MAIN CONCLUSION The impact of temperature and precipitation on the distribution of T. infestans, as shown by the models, indicates the need for aggressive control efforts; the current control measures, including T. infestans control campaigns, should be maintained with the same intensity as they have at present, avoiding sylvatic foci, intrusions, and recolonisation of human dwellings. |
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Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz |
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Assessing the risk zones of Chagas' disease in Chile, in a world marked by global climatic changeChagas' diseaseTriatoma infestansdistributionclimate changeChile BACKGROUND Vector transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi appears to be interrupted in Chile; however, data show increasing incidence of Chagas' disease, raising concerns that there may be a reemerging problem. OBJECTIVE To estimate the actual risk in a changing world it is necessary to consider the historical vector distribution and correlate this distribution with the presence of cases and climate change. METHODS Potential distribution models of Triatoma infestans and Chagas disease were performed using Maxent, a machine-learning method. FINDINGS Climate change appears to play a major role in the reemergence of Chagas' disease and T. infestans in Chile. The distribution of both T. infestans and Chagas' disease correlated with maximum temperature, and the precipitation during the driest month. The overlap of Chagas' disease and T. infestans distribution areas was high. The distribution of T. infestans, under two global change scenarios, showed a minimal reduction tendency in suitable areas. MAIN CONCLUSION The impact of temperature and precipitation on the distribution of T. infestans, as shown by the models, indicates the need for aggressive control efforts; the current control measures, including T. infestans control campaigns, should be maintained with the same intensity as they have at present, avoiding sylvatic foci, intrusions, and recolonisation of human dwellings.Instituto Oswaldo Cruz, Ministério da Saúde2018-01-01info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersiontext/htmlhttp://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0074-02762018000100024Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz v.113 n.1 2018reponame:Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruzinstname:Fundação Oswaldo Cruzinstacron:FIOCRUZ10.1590/0074-02760170172info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessTapia-Garay,ValentinaFigueroa,Daniela PMaldonado,AnaFrías-Laserre,DanielGonzalez,Christian RParra,AlonsoCanals,LuciaApt,WernerAlvarado,SergioCáceres,DanteCanals,Mauricioeng2020-04-25T17:52:43Zhttp://www.scielo.br/oai/scielo-oai.php0074-02761678-8060opendoar:null2020-04-26 02:22:02.366Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz - Fundação Oswaldo Cruztrue |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Assessing the risk zones of Chagas' disease in Chile, in a world marked by global climatic change |
title |
Assessing the risk zones of Chagas' disease in Chile, in a world marked by global climatic change |
spellingShingle |
Assessing the risk zones of Chagas' disease in Chile, in a world marked by global climatic change Tapia-Garay,Valentina Chagas' disease Triatoma infestans distribution climate change Chile |
title_short |
Assessing the risk zones of Chagas' disease in Chile, in a world marked by global climatic change |
title_full |
Assessing the risk zones of Chagas' disease in Chile, in a world marked by global climatic change |
title_fullStr |
Assessing the risk zones of Chagas' disease in Chile, in a world marked by global climatic change |
title_full_unstemmed |
Assessing the risk zones of Chagas' disease in Chile, in a world marked by global climatic change |
title_sort |
Assessing the risk zones of Chagas' disease in Chile, in a world marked by global climatic change |
author |
Tapia-Garay,Valentina |
author_facet |
Tapia-Garay,Valentina Figueroa,Daniela P Maldonado,Ana Frías-Laserre,Daniel Gonzalez,Christian R Parra,Alonso Canals,Lucia Apt,Werner Alvarado,Sergio Cáceres,Dante Canals,Mauricio |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Figueroa,Daniela P Maldonado,Ana Frías-Laserre,Daniel Gonzalez,Christian R Parra,Alonso Canals,Lucia Apt,Werner Alvarado,Sergio Cáceres,Dante Canals,Mauricio |
author2_role |
author author author author author author author author author author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Tapia-Garay,Valentina Figueroa,Daniela P Maldonado,Ana Frías-Laserre,Daniel Gonzalez,Christian R Parra,Alonso Canals,Lucia Apt,Werner Alvarado,Sergio Cáceres,Dante Canals,Mauricio |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Chagas' disease Triatoma infestans distribution climate change Chile |
topic |
Chagas' disease Triatoma infestans distribution climate change Chile |
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv |
BACKGROUND Vector transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi appears to be interrupted in Chile; however, data show increasing incidence of Chagas' disease, raising concerns that there may be a reemerging problem. OBJECTIVE To estimate the actual risk in a changing world it is necessary to consider the historical vector distribution and correlate this distribution with the presence of cases and climate change. METHODS Potential distribution models of Triatoma infestans and Chagas disease were performed using Maxent, a machine-learning method. FINDINGS Climate change appears to play a major role in the reemergence of Chagas' disease and T. infestans in Chile. The distribution of both T. infestans and Chagas' disease correlated with maximum temperature, and the precipitation during the driest month. The overlap of Chagas' disease and T. infestans distribution areas was high. The distribution of T. infestans, under two global change scenarios, showed a minimal reduction tendency in suitable areas. MAIN CONCLUSION The impact of temperature and precipitation on the distribution of T. infestans, as shown by the models, indicates the need for aggressive control efforts; the current control measures, including T. infestans control campaigns, should be maintained with the same intensity as they have at present, avoiding sylvatic foci, intrusions, and recolonisation of human dwellings. |
description |
BACKGROUND Vector transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi appears to be interrupted in Chile; however, data show increasing incidence of Chagas' disease, raising concerns that there may be a reemerging problem. OBJECTIVE To estimate the actual risk in a changing world it is necessary to consider the historical vector distribution and correlate this distribution with the presence of cases and climate change. METHODS Potential distribution models of Triatoma infestans and Chagas disease were performed using Maxent, a machine-learning method. FINDINGS Climate change appears to play a major role in the reemergence of Chagas' disease and T. infestans in Chile. The distribution of both T. infestans and Chagas' disease correlated with maximum temperature, and the precipitation during the driest month. The overlap of Chagas' disease and T. infestans distribution areas was high. The distribution of T. infestans, under two global change scenarios, showed a minimal reduction tendency in suitable areas. MAIN CONCLUSION The impact of temperature and precipitation on the distribution of T. infestans, as shown by the models, indicates the need for aggressive control efforts; the current control measures, including T. infestans control campaigns, should be maintained with the same intensity as they have at present, avoiding sylvatic foci, intrusions, and recolonisation of human dwellings. |
publishDate |
2018 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2018-01-01 |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0074-02762018000100024 |
url |
http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0074-02762018000100024 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
10.1590/0074-02760170172 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
text/html |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Instituto Oswaldo Cruz, Ministério da Saúde |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Instituto Oswaldo Cruz, Ministério da Saúde |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz v.113 n.1 2018 reponame:Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz instname:Fundação Oswaldo Cruz instacron:FIOCRUZ |
reponame_str |
Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz |
collection |
Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz |
instname_str |
Fundação Oswaldo Cruz |
instacron_str |
FIOCRUZ |
institution |
FIOCRUZ |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz - Fundação Oswaldo Cruz |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
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1669937724213166080 |