Predictions of the maximum number of confirmed cases and deaths of COVID-19 in Brazil

• Autor(a) principal: Maximiliano Dutra, Carlos
• Data de Publicação: 2021
• Tipo de documento: Artigo
• Idioma: por; eng
• Título da fonte: Vigilância Sanitária em Debate
• Texto Completo: https://visaemdebate.incqs.fiocruz.br/index.php/visaemdebate/article/view/1774
• topic: Previsão; Coronavírus; COVID-19; Gompertz; Prediction; Coronavirus; Covid-19; Gompertz

Introduction: COVID-19 started in December 2019 in China and in February 2020 in Brazil. As of August 29, 2020, Brazil had 3,717,156 confirmed cases (60.6% of the total in America and 15.0% of the total World) and 117,665 deaths (59.4% of the total in America and 14.0% of the World total), the second place in the world. Objective: To estimate maximum limits for the quantitative number of confirmed cases and deaths of COVID-19 in Brazil. Method: The maximum estimates of confirmed cases and deaths were estimated by applying nonlinear regression with adjustment of the Gompertz function to the COVID-19 data recorded until the end of August 2020. Results: As results were obtained a maximum of 7,189,300 confirmed cases, with 95.0% of the maximum reached in February 2021 and 164,810 deaths, with 95.0% of the maximum reached in December 2020. Conclusions: These forecasts express the trend of temporal evolution of COVID-19 reported data by Our World in Data. They do not consider underreporting in the number of contaminated people and deaths, taking into account the limited testing capacity of the population and the existence of unaccounted asymptomatic contaminated people. These factors added to the uncontrolled relaxation of individual preventive measures and social distancing may have a significant effect on the predictions of the mathematical model used in this work and on the understanding of the transmission of the virus in Brazil.