An analysis of the risk of cocoa moniliasis occurrence in Brazil as the result of climate change
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2012 |
Outros Autores: | , , , , , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Summa phytopathologica (Online) |
Texto Completo: | http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0100-54052012000100005 |
Resumo: | The aim of this study was to evaluate the potential risk of moniliasis occurrence and the impacts of climate change on this disease in the coming decades, should this pathogen be introduced in Brazil. To this end, climate favorability maps were devised for the occurrence of moniliasis, both for the present and future time. The future scenarios (A2 and B2) focused on the decades of 2020, 2050 and 2080. These scenarios were obtained from six global climate models (GCMs) made available by the third assessment report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Currently, there are large areas with favorable climate conditions for moniliasis in Brazil, especially in regions at high risk of introduction of that pathogen. Considering the global warming scenarios provided by the IPCC, the potential risk of moniliasis occurrence in Brazil will be reduced. This decrease is predicted for both future scenarios, but will occur more sharply in scenario A2. However, there will still be areas with favorable climate conditions for the development of the disease, particularly in Brazil's main producing regions. Moreover, pathogen and host alike may undergo alterations due to climate change, which will affect the extent of their impacts on this pathosystem. |
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An analysis of the risk of cocoa moniliasis occurrence in Brazil as the result of climate changeMoniliophthora roreriTheobroma cacaoglobal warminggeographic information systemThe aim of this study was to evaluate the potential risk of moniliasis occurrence and the impacts of climate change on this disease in the coming decades, should this pathogen be introduced in Brazil. To this end, climate favorability maps were devised for the occurrence of moniliasis, both for the present and future time. The future scenarios (A2 and B2) focused on the decades of 2020, 2050 and 2080. These scenarios were obtained from six global climate models (GCMs) made available by the third assessment report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Currently, there are large areas with favorable climate conditions for moniliasis in Brazil, especially in regions at high risk of introduction of that pathogen. Considering the global warming scenarios provided by the IPCC, the potential risk of moniliasis occurrence in Brazil will be reduced. This decrease is predicted for both future scenarios, but will occur more sharply in scenario A2. However, there will still be areas with favorable climate conditions for the development of the disease, particularly in Brazil's main producing regions. Moreover, pathogen and host alike may undergo alterations due to climate change, which will affect the extent of their impacts on this pathosystem.Grupo Paulista de Fitopatologia2012-03-01info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersiontext/htmlhttp://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0100-54052012000100005Summa Phytopathologica v.38 n.1 2012reponame:Summa phytopathologica (Online)instname:Grupo Paulista de Fitopatologiainstacron:GPF10.1590/S0100-54052012000100005info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessMoraes,Wanderson BuckerJesus Júnior,Waldir Cintra dePeixoto,Leonardo de AzevedoMoraes,Willian BuckerFurtado,Edson LuizSilva,Lilianne Gomes daCecílio,Roberto AvelinoAlves,Fábio Ramoseng2012-04-05T00:00:00Zoai:scielo:S0100-54052012000100005Revistahttp://www.scielo.br/sphttps://old.scielo.br/oai/scielo-oai.phpsumma@fca.unesp.br1980-54540100-5405opendoar:2012-04-05T00:00Summa phytopathologica (Online) - Grupo Paulista de Fitopatologiafalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
An analysis of the risk of cocoa moniliasis occurrence in Brazil as the result of climate change |
title |
An analysis of the risk of cocoa moniliasis occurrence in Brazil as the result of climate change |
spellingShingle |
An analysis of the risk of cocoa moniliasis occurrence in Brazil as the result of climate change Moraes,Wanderson Bucker Moniliophthora roreri Theobroma cacao global warming geographic information system |
title_short |
An analysis of the risk of cocoa moniliasis occurrence in Brazil as the result of climate change |
title_full |
An analysis of the risk of cocoa moniliasis occurrence in Brazil as the result of climate change |
title_fullStr |
An analysis of the risk of cocoa moniliasis occurrence in Brazil as the result of climate change |
title_full_unstemmed |
An analysis of the risk of cocoa moniliasis occurrence in Brazil as the result of climate change |
title_sort |
An analysis of the risk of cocoa moniliasis occurrence in Brazil as the result of climate change |
author |
Moraes,Wanderson Bucker |
author_facet |
Moraes,Wanderson Bucker Jesus Júnior,Waldir Cintra de Peixoto,Leonardo de Azevedo Moraes,Willian Bucker Furtado,Edson Luiz Silva,Lilianne Gomes da Cecílio,Roberto Avelino Alves,Fábio Ramos |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Jesus Júnior,Waldir Cintra de Peixoto,Leonardo de Azevedo Moraes,Willian Bucker Furtado,Edson Luiz Silva,Lilianne Gomes da Cecílio,Roberto Avelino Alves,Fábio Ramos |
author2_role |
author author author author author author author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Moraes,Wanderson Bucker Jesus Júnior,Waldir Cintra de Peixoto,Leonardo de Azevedo Moraes,Willian Bucker Furtado,Edson Luiz Silva,Lilianne Gomes da Cecílio,Roberto Avelino Alves,Fábio Ramos |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Moniliophthora roreri Theobroma cacao global warming geographic information system |
topic |
Moniliophthora roreri Theobroma cacao global warming geographic information system |
description |
The aim of this study was to evaluate the potential risk of moniliasis occurrence and the impacts of climate change on this disease in the coming decades, should this pathogen be introduced in Brazil. To this end, climate favorability maps were devised for the occurrence of moniliasis, both for the present and future time. The future scenarios (A2 and B2) focused on the decades of 2020, 2050 and 2080. These scenarios were obtained from six global climate models (GCMs) made available by the third assessment report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Currently, there are large areas with favorable climate conditions for moniliasis in Brazil, especially in regions at high risk of introduction of that pathogen. Considering the global warming scenarios provided by the IPCC, the potential risk of moniliasis occurrence in Brazil will be reduced. This decrease is predicted for both future scenarios, but will occur more sharply in scenario A2. However, there will still be areas with favorable climate conditions for the development of the disease, particularly in Brazil's main producing regions. Moreover, pathogen and host alike may undergo alterations due to climate change, which will affect the extent of their impacts on this pathosystem. |
publishDate |
2012 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2012-03-01 |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0100-54052012000100005 |
url |
http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0100-54052012000100005 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
10.1590/S0100-54052012000100005 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
text/html |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Grupo Paulista de Fitopatologia |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Grupo Paulista de Fitopatologia |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Summa Phytopathologica v.38 n.1 2012 reponame:Summa phytopathologica (Online) instname:Grupo Paulista de Fitopatologia instacron:GPF |
instname_str |
Grupo Paulista de Fitopatologia |
instacron_str |
GPF |
institution |
GPF |
reponame_str |
Summa phytopathologica (Online) |
collection |
Summa phytopathologica (Online) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Summa phytopathologica (Online) - Grupo Paulista de Fitopatologia |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
summa@fca.unesp.br |
_version_ |
1754193416980267008 |