Prediction of visceral leishmaniasis incidence using the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model (SARIMA) in the state of Maranhão, Brazil
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2023 |
Outros Autores: | , , , , , , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Digital do Instituto Evandro Chagas (Patuá) |
Texto Completo: | https://patua.iec.gov.br/handle/iec/6734 |
Resumo: | Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is an infectious disease predominant in countries located in the tropics. The prediction of occurrence of infectious diseases through epidemiologic modeling has revealed to be an important tool in the understanding of its occurrence dynamic. The objective of this study was to develop a forecasting model for the incidence of VL in Maranhão using the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model (SARIMA). We collected monthly data regarding VL cases from the National Disease Notification System (SINAN) corresponding to the period between 2001 and 2018. The Box‑Jenkins method was applied in order to adjust a SARIMA prediction model for VL general incidence and by sex (male or female) for the period between January 2019 and December 2013. For 216 months of this time series, 10,431 cases of VL were notified in Maranhão, with an average of 579 cases per year. With regard to age range, there was a higher incidence among the pediatric public (0 to 14 years of age). There was a predominance in male cases, 6437 (61.71%). The Box‑Pierce test figures for overall, male and female genders supported by the results of the Ljung‑Box test suggest that the autocorrelations of residual values act as white noise. Regarding monthly occurrences in general and by gender, the SARIMA models (2,0,0) (2,0,0), (0,1,1) (0,1,1) and (0,1,1) (2, 0, 0) were the ones that mostly adjusted to the data respectively. The model SARIMA has proven to be an adequate tool for predicting and analyzing the trends in VL incidence in Maranhão. The time variation determination and its prediction are decisive in providing guidance in health measure intervention. |
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Pimentel, K. B. AOliveira, R. SAragão, Carine FortesAquino Júnior, JoséMoura, M. E. SSilva, A. S. Guimarães ePinheiro, Valeria Cristina SGonçalves, E. G. RSilva, A. R2023-03-10T18:14:40Z2023-03-10T18:14:40Z2023PIMENTEL, K. B. A. et al. Prediction of visceral leishmaniasis incidence using the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model (SARIMA) in the state of Maranhão, Brazil. Brazilian Journal of Biology, v. 84, n. e257402, p. 1-8, 2023. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1590/1519‑6984.257402. Disponível em: https://www.scielo.br/j/bjb/a/L7MLfhDgJkSykjQzgBHhL5N/?format=pdf&lang=en1678-4375https://patua.iec.gov.br/handle/iec/673410.1590/1519‑6984.257402Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is an infectious disease predominant in countries located in the tropics. The prediction of occurrence of infectious diseases through epidemiologic modeling has revealed to be an important tool in the understanding of its occurrence dynamic. The objective of this study was to develop a forecasting model for the incidence of VL in Maranhão using the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model (SARIMA). We collected monthly data regarding VL cases from the National Disease Notification System (SINAN) corresponding to the period between 2001 and 2018. The Box‑Jenkins method was applied in order to adjust a SARIMA prediction model for VL general incidence and by sex (male or female) for the period between January 2019 and December 2013. For 216 months of this time series, 10,431 cases of VL were notified in Maranhão, with an average of 579 cases per year. With regard to age range, there was a higher incidence among the pediatric public (0 to 14 years of age). There was a predominance in male cases, 6437 (61.71%). The Box‑Pierce test figures for overall, male and female genders supported by the results of the Ljung‑Box test suggest that the autocorrelations of residual values act as white noise. Regarding monthly occurrences in general and by gender, the SARIMA models (2,0,0) (2,0,0), (0,1,1) (0,1,1) and (0,1,1) (2, 0, 0) were the ones that mostly adjusted to the data respectively. The model SARIMA has proven to be an adequate tool for predicting and analyzing the trends in VL incidence in Maranhão. The time variation determination and its prediction are decisive in providing guidance in health measure intervention.Universidade Federal do Maranhão. Programa de Pós‑graduação Strictu Sensu em Saúde e Ambiente. São Luís, MA, Brasil.Universidade Estadual do Maranhão - Campus Caxias. Programa de Pós‑graduação Strictu Sensu em Biodiversidade, Ambiente e Saúde. Caxias, MA, Brasil.Ministério da Saúde. Secretaria de Vigilância em Saúde e Ambiente. Instituto Evandro Chagas. Ananindeua, PA, Brasil.Universidade Federal do Maranhão. Programa de Pós‑graduação Strictu Sensu em Saúde e Ambiente. São Luís, MA, Brasil.Universidade Estadual do Maranhão - Campus Caxias. Programa de Pós‑graduação Strictu Sensu em Biodiversidade, Ambiente e Saúde. Caxias, MA, Brasil.Universidade Estadual do Maranhão - Campus Caxias. Programa de Pós‑graduação Strictu Sensu em Biodiversidade, Ambiente e Saúde. Caxias, MA, Brasil.Universidade Estadual do Maranhão - Campus Caxias. Programa de Pós‑graduação Strictu Sensu em Biodiversidade, Ambiente e Saúde. Caxias, MA, Brasil.Universidade Federal do Maranhão. Programa de Pós‑graduação Strictu Sensu em Saúde e Ambiente. São Luís, MA, Brasil.Universidade Federal do Maranhão. Programa de Pós‑graduação Strictu Sensu em Saúde e Ambiente. São Luís, MA, Brasil.engInstituto Internacional de EcologiaPrediction of visceral leishmaniasis incidence using the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model (SARIMA) in the state of Maranhão, BrazilPrevisão da incidência da leishmaniose visceral usando o modelo de média móvel integrado autorregressivo sazonal (SARIMA) no Maranhão, Brasilinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleLeishmaniose Visceral / parasitologiaIncidênciaMédia Móvel Integrada Autocorrelacionada Sazonal / métodosEstudos de Séries TemporaisMaranhão (MA)info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Digital do Instituto Evandro Chagas (Patuá)instname:Instituto Evandro Chagas (IEC)instacron:IECORIGINALPrediction of visceral leishmaniasis incidence using the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model (SARIMA) in the state of Maranhão, Brazil.pdfPrediction of visceral leishmaniasis incidence using the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model (SARIMA) in the state of Maranhão, Brazil.pdfapplication/pdf764312https://patua.iec.gov.br/bitstreams/3f4a9690-c0e3-4e2d-8bd2-a52e5c6e88cd/download429def2ab33afede53e511a3a4268e4eMD51LICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; 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dc.title.pt_BR.fl_str_mv |
Prediction of visceral leishmaniasis incidence using the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model (SARIMA) in the state of Maranhão, Brazil |
dc.title.alternative.pt_BR.fl_str_mv |
Previsão da incidência da leishmaniose visceral usando o modelo de média móvel integrado autorregressivo sazonal (SARIMA) no Maranhão, Brasil |
title |
Prediction of visceral leishmaniasis incidence using the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model (SARIMA) in the state of Maranhão, Brazil |
spellingShingle |
Prediction of visceral leishmaniasis incidence using the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model (SARIMA) in the state of Maranhão, Brazil Pimentel, K. B. A Leishmaniose Visceral / parasitologia Incidência Média Móvel Integrada Autocorrelacionada Sazonal / métodos Estudos de Séries Temporais Maranhão (MA) |
title_short |
Prediction of visceral leishmaniasis incidence using the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model (SARIMA) in the state of Maranhão, Brazil |
title_full |
Prediction of visceral leishmaniasis incidence using the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model (SARIMA) in the state of Maranhão, Brazil |
title_fullStr |
Prediction of visceral leishmaniasis incidence using the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model (SARIMA) in the state of Maranhão, Brazil |
title_full_unstemmed |
Prediction of visceral leishmaniasis incidence using the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model (SARIMA) in the state of Maranhão, Brazil |
title_sort |
Prediction of visceral leishmaniasis incidence using the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model (SARIMA) in the state of Maranhão, Brazil |
author |
Pimentel, K. B. A |
author_facet |
Pimentel, K. B. A Oliveira, R. S Aragão, Carine Fortes Aquino Júnior, José Moura, M. E. S Silva, A. S. Guimarães e Pinheiro, Valeria Cristina S Gonçalves, E. G. R Silva, A. R |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Oliveira, R. S Aragão, Carine Fortes Aquino Júnior, José Moura, M. E. S Silva, A. S. Guimarães e Pinheiro, Valeria Cristina S Gonçalves, E. G. R Silva, A. R |
author2_role |
author author author author author author author author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Pimentel, K. B. A Oliveira, R. S Aragão, Carine Fortes Aquino Júnior, José Moura, M. E. S Silva, A. S. Guimarães e Pinheiro, Valeria Cristina S Gonçalves, E. G. R Silva, A. R |
dc.subject.decsPrimary.pt_BR.fl_str_mv |
Leishmaniose Visceral / parasitologia Incidência Média Móvel Integrada Autocorrelacionada Sazonal / métodos Estudos de Séries Temporais Maranhão (MA) |
topic |
Leishmaniose Visceral / parasitologia Incidência Média Móvel Integrada Autocorrelacionada Sazonal / métodos Estudos de Séries Temporais Maranhão (MA) |
description |
Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is an infectious disease predominant in countries located in the tropics. The prediction of occurrence of infectious diseases through epidemiologic modeling has revealed to be an important tool in the understanding of its occurrence dynamic. The objective of this study was to develop a forecasting model for the incidence of VL in Maranhão using the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model (SARIMA). We collected monthly data regarding VL cases from the National Disease Notification System (SINAN) corresponding to the period between 2001 and 2018. The Box‑Jenkins method was applied in order to adjust a SARIMA prediction model for VL general incidence and by sex (male or female) for the period between January 2019 and December 2013. For 216 months of this time series, 10,431 cases of VL were notified in Maranhão, with an average of 579 cases per year. With regard to age range, there was a higher incidence among the pediatric public (0 to 14 years of age). There was a predominance in male cases, 6437 (61.71%). The Box‑Pierce test figures for overall, male and female genders supported by the results of the Ljung‑Box test suggest that the autocorrelations of residual values act as white noise. Regarding monthly occurrences in general and by gender, the SARIMA models (2,0,0) (2,0,0), (0,1,1) (0,1,1) and (0,1,1) (2, 0, 0) were the ones that mostly adjusted to the data respectively. The model SARIMA has proven to be an adequate tool for predicting and analyzing the trends in VL incidence in Maranhão. The time variation determination and its prediction are decisive in providing guidance in health measure intervention. |
publishDate |
2023 |
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv |
2023-03-10T18:14:40Z |
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv |
2023-03-10T18:14:40Z |
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv |
2023 |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
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article |
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publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.citation.fl_str_mv |
PIMENTEL, K. B. A. et al. Prediction of visceral leishmaniasis incidence using the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model (SARIMA) in the state of Maranhão, Brazil. Brazilian Journal of Biology, v. 84, n. e257402, p. 1-8, 2023. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1590/1519‑6984.257402. Disponível em: https://www.scielo.br/j/bjb/a/L7MLfhDgJkSykjQzgBHhL5N/?format=pdf&lang=en |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://patua.iec.gov.br/handle/iec/6734 |
dc.identifier.issn.-.fl_str_mv |
1678-4375 |
dc.identifier.doi.pt_BR.fl_str_mv |
10.1590/1519‑6984.257402 |
identifier_str_mv |
PIMENTEL, K. B. A. et al. Prediction of visceral leishmaniasis incidence using the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model (SARIMA) in the state of Maranhão, Brazil. Brazilian Journal of Biology, v. 84, n. e257402, p. 1-8, 2023. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1590/1519‑6984.257402. Disponível em: https://www.scielo.br/j/bjb/a/L7MLfhDgJkSykjQzgBHhL5N/?format=pdf&lang=en 1678-4375 10.1590/1519‑6984.257402 |
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https://patua.iec.gov.br/handle/iec/6734 |
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eng |
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eng |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
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openAccess |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Instituto Internacional de Ecologia |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Instituto Internacional de Ecologia |
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