Demand forecasting: proposal of a model for a glass tempering industry

• Autor(a) principal: Martins, Jéssica Arrais
• Data de Publicação: 2018
• Outros Autores: Cruz, Jeferson Auto da
• Tipo de documento: Artigo
• Idioma: eng
• Título da fonte: Independent Journal of Management & Production
• Texto Completo: http://www.ijmp.jor.br/index.php/ijmp/article/view/808
• topic: Demand Forecasting; Quantitative Models; Glass Tempering

The given article aims to evaluate different quantitative demand forecast methods through a case study on a glass tempering company. The analysis were held based on historical data series, which allowed the use of a part of this data for method application and another part for comparison and validation of the model`s results. The methods were compared based on obtaining the mean absolute error. In the studied company, the raw material request for the suppliers was made when new orders are ordered (pulled production). This method results in longer responsiveness, mainly due to the waiting time of raw material arrival. The application of those different demand forecasting models were analysed over three types of products on the tempered glass category, which represents a total volume of 65% of the company's costs. As a result, two methods were better adapted to the real data, providing absolute errors between 0.25 and 0.29. This given work showed that the application of the demand forecasting methods would reduce orders delivery time, what could lead to real gains to the analyzed company.