Regulação financeira internacional uma análise exploratória e impactos sociais da avaliação das agências

• Autor(a) principal: Amaral, Amaury de Souza
• Data de Publicação: 2015
• Tipo de documento: Tese
• Idioma: por
• Título da fonte: Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da PUC_SP
• Texto Completo: https://tede2.pucsp.br/handle/handle/3649
• topic: Modelo de Delli Gatti; Capital social; Avaliação de risco; Laços fortes e laços fracos; Delli Gatti model; Social capital; Risk assessment; Rating; Strong and weak ties; CNPQ::CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS

The effects of globalization are felt in all countries. Many have socioeconomic scenarios marked by inequality and by indebtedness. In order to liquidate its debts, they capture resources abroad with the issue of the so-called sovereign bonds. The rating agencies are companies that assess risks before the eventual entitling of these titles and issue opinions. Even that they disclose their methodology of evaluation, in fact there is a huge subjective field, which ultimately influence and, often, increasing the domestic interest rate. Although not everyone realizes the size of the social impact of this component, they effectively change the daily reality experienced by citizens. Because of it, we became interested in studying the effects of the impacts caused by risk factors that enter in the economy. For this reason, it was used as a basis a simplified model that simulates an artificial economy, designed to study a network of credit and the effects of fluctuations in interest rates. This model was chosen also for allowing us to capture amplitudes of economic fluctuations in responses to shocks promoted by the insertion of the interest in an evolutionary process. But it was necessary to go beyond. In this study, we propose an extended version of the simplified economic model by inserting a network of consumers with all its amplitude; this is because the previous model was based on the Say law, that starts from the assumptions that all offer generates its own demand. Thus, it does not permit us to investigate the impacts of the interest on the choices made by consumers in their buying process. The Complex System Theory, and all the development that is currently available for computing, among them the modern algorithms with their accuracy and speed, were fundamental to the achievement of the work. We have, also, progressed in the rupture of the traditional economic analyzes characterized by a top-down approach and, through agents models based, we could adopt a bottom-up approach. This was possible with the integration of macro-parameters associated with a micro level of processing. The main conclusion of this work is that the formation of agglomerates (clusters) between businesses, banks and families encourage economic agents. The agents connected by strong ties are benefited to the extent that the asymmetry in the distribution of wealth between firms and households is reduced. On the other hand, the increase in the interest rate leads to a fall in the connections between the agents, causing a dilution of the network and an increase in the asymmetry of the sharing of wealth