Forecasting electoral results for the Parliament of the Portuguese Republic

• Autor(a) principal: Azevedo, Diamantino
• Data de Publicação: 2018
• Outros Autores: Correia, Luís, Gaspar, Graça
• Tipo de documento: Artigo
• Idioma: por
• Título da fonte: Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
• Texto Completo: https://doi.org/10.34627/rcc.v7i0.90

In earlier work, Data Mining techniques using a large number of public available socioeconomic variables about Portugal were used to predict election results between 1974 and 2009 (thirteen elections) for the Parliament of the Portuguese Republic. However, the political spectrum considered in that work does not cover 100% of the votes cast, but only the four parties with regular parliamentary seat since 1975, whose voting reaches about 84%. In the approach previously adopted, each of the four traditional parties was treated separately resulting in independent forecasts. In this paper we analyse the extension of that work to the forecasting of the remaining interval of the election results and its use to ensure the restriction that the total percentage of votes cast adds up to 100%. The results showed that the methods previously applied allow making predictions with similar quality for the remaining partisan forces.