The relationship between the general government debt and the gross domestic product: a case for Portugal
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2018 |
Tipo de documento: | Dissertação |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
Texto Completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/10071/17452 |
Resumo: | This dissertation analysis empirically the relationship between PIB, public debt and the current account balance in Portugal. In this study were used 37 yearly observations for the between comprehended between 1980 and 2016. During the financial crisis of 2008, the levels of public debt raised sharply being considered one of the main factors for the slow growth or even decrease of GDP. Recently, these effects were proven to be close to nil in advanced economies. However, the increase in public debt should not be stimulated, since it would lead to a higher volatility, which could be one of the reasons for slower GDP growth rates. In a VECM model, it was possible to conclude the presence of a long-term relationship between the variables. Additionally, we had no evidence of Granger causality. Therefore, neither the public debt nor the current account balance could cause slow GDP growth rates in the short-run. |
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The relationship between the general government debt and the gross domestic product: a case for PortugalGross domestic productPublic debtPortugalVARDívida públicaPIB Produto Interno BrutoThis dissertation analysis empirically the relationship between PIB, public debt and the current account balance in Portugal. In this study were used 37 yearly observations for the between comprehended between 1980 and 2016. During the financial crisis of 2008, the levels of public debt raised sharply being considered one of the main factors for the slow growth or even decrease of GDP. Recently, these effects were proven to be close to nil in advanced economies. However, the increase in public debt should not be stimulated, since it would lead to a higher volatility, which could be one of the reasons for slower GDP growth rates. In a VECM model, it was possible to conclude the presence of a long-term relationship between the variables. Additionally, we had no evidence of Granger causality. Therefore, neither the public debt nor the current account balance could cause slow GDP growth rates in the short-run.Esta dissertação analisa empiricamente a relação entre o PIB, a dívida pública e o saldo da balança corrente em Portugal. Para este estudo foram usadas 37 observações anuais para um período compreendido entre 1980 e 2016. Durante a crise financeira do ano de 2008 os níveis de dívida pública aumentaram de forma abrupta, tendo sido estes encarados como uma possível causa do abrandamento e a partir de certo nível decréscimo do PIB. Recentemente, demonstrou-se que este efeito não existia em economias mais desenvolvidas. Contudo, o aumento dos níveis de dívida pública não deve ser fomentado, visto que proporciona uma maior volatilidade, sendo essa a razão pelo abrandamento do crescimento do PIB. Através de um modelo VECM foi possível verificar a existência de uma relação de longo prazo entre as variáveis. Adicionalmente, os resultados do teste de causalidade à Granger provaram não haver evidência de uma relação de curto prazo entre as variáveis.2019-02-27T15:46:42Z2018-11-28T00:00:00Z2018-11-282018-09info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesisapplication/pdfapplication/octet-streamhttp://hdl.handle.net/10071/17452TID:202053490engAlmeida, João Carlos Francisco deinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2023-11-09T17:30:27Zoai:repositorio.iscte-iul.pt:10071/17452Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T22:13:40.689245Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
The relationship between the general government debt and the gross domestic product: a case for Portugal |
title |
The relationship between the general government debt and the gross domestic product: a case for Portugal |
spellingShingle |
The relationship between the general government debt and the gross domestic product: a case for Portugal Almeida, João Carlos Francisco de Gross domestic product Public debt Portugal VAR Dívida pública PIB Produto Interno Bruto |
title_short |
The relationship between the general government debt and the gross domestic product: a case for Portugal |
title_full |
The relationship between the general government debt and the gross domestic product: a case for Portugal |
title_fullStr |
The relationship between the general government debt and the gross domestic product: a case for Portugal |
title_full_unstemmed |
The relationship between the general government debt and the gross domestic product: a case for Portugal |
title_sort |
The relationship between the general government debt and the gross domestic product: a case for Portugal |
author |
Almeida, João Carlos Francisco de |
author_facet |
Almeida, João Carlos Francisco de |
author_role |
author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Almeida, João Carlos Francisco de |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Gross domestic product Public debt Portugal VAR Dívida pública PIB Produto Interno Bruto |
topic |
Gross domestic product Public debt Portugal VAR Dívida pública PIB Produto Interno Bruto |
description |
This dissertation analysis empirically the relationship between PIB, public debt and the current account balance in Portugal. In this study were used 37 yearly observations for the between comprehended between 1980 and 2016. During the financial crisis of 2008, the levels of public debt raised sharply being considered one of the main factors for the slow growth or even decrease of GDP. Recently, these effects were proven to be close to nil in advanced economies. However, the increase in public debt should not be stimulated, since it would lead to a higher volatility, which could be one of the reasons for slower GDP growth rates. In a VECM model, it was possible to conclude the presence of a long-term relationship between the variables. Additionally, we had no evidence of Granger causality. Therefore, neither the public debt nor the current account balance could cause slow GDP growth rates in the short-run. |
publishDate |
2018 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2018-11-28T00:00:00Z 2018-11-28 2018-09 2019-02-27T15:46:42Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis |
format |
masterThesis |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/10071/17452 TID:202053490 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10071/17452 |
identifier_str_mv |
TID:202053490 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
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openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf application/octet-stream |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
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Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
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RCAAP |
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RCAAP |
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Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
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Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
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Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
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