Extreme wave value analysis under uncertainty of climate change scenarios off Iberian Peninsula coast
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2021 |
Outros Autores: | , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
Texto Completo: | https://hdl.handle.net/1822/72298 |
Resumo: | Extreme wave value analysis under uncertainty scenarios was developed to estimate wave climate characteristics at 17 stations in southwestern European coast off the Iberian Peninsula. A comprehensive wave dataset downscaled with the Wave Watch III (WWIII) model by Meteogalicia under MarRisk Project was used considering results of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5). Descriptive statistics for significant wave height (Hs), peak wave period (Tp), and mean and peak wave direction were performed for historical data (1960−2005), and for projected data in two twenty-year time periods under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (2026−2045 and 2081−2100). Hs and Tp extreme values for the study area were obtained using the Gumbel, Fréchet and Weibull probability distributions for the 10-, 50-, and 100-year return period. Obtained results showed that: historical Hs values decrease from North to South and are higher than those calculated in any of the RCPs future scenarios; mean Tp values appear to be constant in all stations; and means for peak and mean direction have higher frequency of occurrence in Q4 (270°−360°). This study also allowed the computation of Hs and Tp values for 100-year return period, which can be used as design criteria for structural analyses in maritime works |
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Extreme wave value analysis under uncertainty of climate change scenarios off Iberian Peninsula coastExtreme eventsProbability distributionSignificant wave heightUncertaintyWave climate projectionsRCP scenariosEngenharia e Tecnologia::Engenharia CivilScience & TechnologyExtreme wave value analysis under uncertainty scenarios was developed to estimate wave climate characteristics at 17 stations in southwestern European coast off the Iberian Peninsula. A comprehensive wave dataset downscaled with the Wave Watch III (WWIII) model by Meteogalicia under MarRisk Project was used considering results of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5). Descriptive statistics for significant wave height (Hs), peak wave period (Tp), and mean and peak wave direction were performed for historical data (1960−2005), and for projected data in two twenty-year time periods under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (2026−2045 and 2081−2100). Hs and Tp extreme values for the study area were obtained using the Gumbel, Fréchet and Weibull probability distributions for the 10-, 50-, and 100-year return period. Obtained results showed that: historical Hs values decrease from North to South and are higher than those calculated in any of the RCPs future scenarios; mean Tp values appear to be constant in all stations; and means for peak and mean direction have higher frequency of occurrence in Q4 (270°−360°). This study also allowed the computation of Hs and Tp values for 100-year return period, which can be used as design criteria for structural analyses in maritime worksThe authors acknowledge the financial support provided by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT), PhD grant number SFRH/BD/141381/2018. This research was also partially supported by the 0262_MarRISK_1_E project funded by Interreg V-A SpainPortugal Program (POCTEP).ElsevierUniversidade do MinhoVieira, Bárbara Filipa VasquezPinho, José L. S.Barros, Joaquim A. O.20212021-01-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttps://hdl.handle.net/1822/72298engVieira, B.F.V.; Pinho, J.L.S.; and Barros, J.A.O. (2021). Extreme wave value analysis under uncertainty of climate change scenarios off Iberian Peninsula coast. Ocean Engineering, 229, 109018. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2021.1090180029-801810.1016/j.oceaneng.2021.109018https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0029801821004534info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2023-11-04T01:17:00Zoai:repositorium.sdum.uminho.pt:1822/72298Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T18:56:56.473743Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Extreme wave value analysis under uncertainty of climate change scenarios off Iberian Peninsula coast |
title |
Extreme wave value analysis under uncertainty of climate change scenarios off Iberian Peninsula coast |
spellingShingle |
Extreme wave value analysis under uncertainty of climate change scenarios off Iberian Peninsula coast Vieira, Bárbara Filipa Vasquez Extreme events Probability distribution Significant wave height Uncertainty Wave climate projections RCP scenarios Engenharia e Tecnologia::Engenharia Civil Science & Technology |
title_short |
Extreme wave value analysis under uncertainty of climate change scenarios off Iberian Peninsula coast |
title_full |
Extreme wave value analysis under uncertainty of climate change scenarios off Iberian Peninsula coast |
title_fullStr |
Extreme wave value analysis under uncertainty of climate change scenarios off Iberian Peninsula coast |
title_full_unstemmed |
Extreme wave value analysis under uncertainty of climate change scenarios off Iberian Peninsula coast |
title_sort |
Extreme wave value analysis under uncertainty of climate change scenarios off Iberian Peninsula coast |
author |
Vieira, Bárbara Filipa Vasquez |
author_facet |
Vieira, Bárbara Filipa Vasquez Pinho, José L. S. Barros, Joaquim A. O. |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Pinho, José L. S. Barros, Joaquim A. O. |
author2_role |
author author |
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade do Minho |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Vieira, Bárbara Filipa Vasquez Pinho, José L. S. Barros, Joaquim A. O. |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Extreme events Probability distribution Significant wave height Uncertainty Wave climate projections RCP scenarios Engenharia e Tecnologia::Engenharia Civil Science & Technology |
topic |
Extreme events Probability distribution Significant wave height Uncertainty Wave climate projections RCP scenarios Engenharia e Tecnologia::Engenharia Civil Science & Technology |
description |
Extreme wave value analysis under uncertainty scenarios was developed to estimate wave climate characteristics at 17 stations in southwestern European coast off the Iberian Peninsula. A comprehensive wave dataset downscaled with the Wave Watch III (WWIII) model by Meteogalicia under MarRisk Project was used considering results of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5). Descriptive statistics for significant wave height (Hs), peak wave period (Tp), and mean and peak wave direction were performed for historical data (1960−2005), and for projected data in two twenty-year time periods under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (2026−2045 and 2081−2100). Hs and Tp extreme values for the study area were obtained using the Gumbel, Fréchet and Weibull probability distributions for the 10-, 50-, and 100-year return period. Obtained results showed that: historical Hs values decrease from North to South and are higher than those calculated in any of the RCPs future scenarios; mean Tp values appear to be constant in all stations; and means for peak and mean direction have higher frequency of occurrence in Q4 (270°−360°). This study also allowed the computation of Hs and Tp values for 100-year return period, which can be used as design criteria for structural analyses in maritime works |
publishDate |
2021 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2021 2021-01-01T00:00:00Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://hdl.handle.net/1822/72298 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/1822/72298 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
Vieira, B.F.V.; Pinho, J.L.S.; and Barros, J.A.O. (2021). Extreme wave value analysis under uncertainty of climate change scenarios off Iberian Peninsula coast. Ocean Engineering, 229, 109018. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2021.109018 0029-8018 10.1016/j.oceaneng.2021.109018 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0029801821004534 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Elsevier |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Elsevier |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação instacron:RCAAP |
instname_str |
Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
instacron_str |
RCAAP |
institution |
RCAAP |
reponame_str |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
collection |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
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1799132357622497280 |