The Covid-19 recession in Germany : a macropidemiological analysis
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2023 |
Outros Autores: | , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
Texto Completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/28969 |
Resumo: | What are the drivers of output fluctuations in Germany during the COVID-19 pandemic? We develop a macro-epidemiological model based on the evidence that efficiency and labor wedges are the key distortions in the neoclassical growth model that account for the GDP dynamics during the period. We find that the consumption and laborsupply effects of containment policies and the endogenous responses of households to pandemic-associated health risks can account for almost all weekly dynamics of output in Germany between the first quarter of 2020 and the second quarter of 2021. The containment policies are found to be responsible for especially large output losses during the pandemic, but the endogenous household responses appear to play an important complementary role. We simulate a counterfactual, laissezfaire type of response to the pandemic and find that not only would it not have avoided a sizeable recession either, but it would also lead to substantially higher losses in human life and stress on the German health service. |
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The Covid-19 recession in Germany : a macropidemiological analysisCovid-19GermanySIR-MacroDynamic General Equilibrium ModelBusiness Cycle AccountingWhat are the drivers of output fluctuations in Germany during the COVID-19 pandemic? We develop a macro-epidemiological model based on the evidence that efficiency and labor wedges are the key distortions in the neoclassical growth model that account for the GDP dynamics during the period. We find that the consumption and laborsupply effects of containment policies and the endogenous responses of households to pandemic-associated health risks can account for almost all weekly dynamics of output in Germany between the first quarter of 2020 and the second quarter of 2021. The containment policies are found to be responsible for especially large output losses during the pandemic, but the endogenous household responses appear to play an important complementary role. We simulate a counterfactual, laissezfaire type of response to the pandemic and find that not only would it not have avoided a sizeable recession either, but it would also lead to substantially higher losses in human life and stress on the German health service.ISEG - REM - Research in Economics and MathematicsRepositório da Universidade de LisboaKrause, WilliCosta, LuísCosta Filho, João Ricardo2023-10-12T15:41:14Z2023-102023-10-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/28969engKrause, Willi, Luís Costa e João Ricardo Costa Filho (2023). "The Covid-19 recession in Germany : a macropidemiological analysis". REM Working paper series, nº 0290/20232184-108Xinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2023-10-15T01:33:47Zoai:www.repository.utl.pt:10400.5/28969Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T20:35:46.143115Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
The Covid-19 recession in Germany : a macropidemiological analysis |
title |
The Covid-19 recession in Germany : a macropidemiological analysis |
spellingShingle |
The Covid-19 recession in Germany : a macropidemiological analysis Krause, Willi Covid-19 Germany SIR-Macro Dynamic General Equilibrium Model Business Cycle Accounting |
title_short |
The Covid-19 recession in Germany : a macropidemiological analysis |
title_full |
The Covid-19 recession in Germany : a macropidemiological analysis |
title_fullStr |
The Covid-19 recession in Germany : a macropidemiological analysis |
title_full_unstemmed |
The Covid-19 recession in Germany : a macropidemiological analysis |
title_sort |
The Covid-19 recession in Germany : a macropidemiological analysis |
author |
Krause, Willi |
author_facet |
Krause, Willi Costa, Luís Costa Filho, João Ricardo |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Costa, Luís Costa Filho, João Ricardo |
author2_role |
author author |
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
Repositório da Universidade de Lisboa |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Krause, Willi Costa, Luís Costa Filho, João Ricardo |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Covid-19 Germany SIR-Macro Dynamic General Equilibrium Model Business Cycle Accounting |
topic |
Covid-19 Germany SIR-Macro Dynamic General Equilibrium Model Business Cycle Accounting |
description |
What are the drivers of output fluctuations in Germany during the COVID-19 pandemic? We develop a macro-epidemiological model based on the evidence that efficiency and labor wedges are the key distortions in the neoclassical growth model that account for the GDP dynamics during the period. We find that the consumption and laborsupply effects of containment policies and the endogenous responses of households to pandemic-associated health risks can account for almost all weekly dynamics of output in Germany between the first quarter of 2020 and the second quarter of 2021. The containment policies are found to be responsible for especially large output losses during the pandemic, but the endogenous household responses appear to play an important complementary role. We simulate a counterfactual, laissezfaire type of response to the pandemic and find that not only would it not have avoided a sizeable recession either, but it would also lead to substantially higher losses in human life and stress on the German health service. |
publishDate |
2023 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2023-10-12T15:41:14Z 2023-10 2023-10-01T00:00:00Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/28969 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/28969 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
Krause, Willi, Luís Costa e João Ricardo Costa Filho (2023). "The Covid-19 recession in Germany : a macropidemiological analysis". REM Working paper series, nº 0290/2023 2184-108X |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
ISEG - REM - Research in Economics and Mathematics |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
ISEG - REM - Research in Economics and Mathematics |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação instacron:RCAAP |
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Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
instacron_str |
RCAAP |
institution |
RCAAP |
reponame_str |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
collection |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
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1799133620612366336 |