What do mathematical models say about the effect of the non-pharmaceutical interventions due the COVID-19 pandemic on other respiratory diseases?

• Autor(a) principal: Bergero, Paula
• Data de Publicação: 2022
• Outros Autores: Guisoni, Nara Cristina
• Tipo de documento: preprint
• Idioma: spa
• Título da fonte: SciELO Preprints
• Texto Completo: https://preprints.scielo.org/index.php/scielo/preprint/view/3963
• topic: GRIPE; VSR; COVID-19; MODELAGEM MATEMATICA; INFLUENZA; VSR; COVID-19; MATHEMATICAL MODELING; INFLUENZA; VSR; COVID-19; MODELADO MATEMATICO

Introduction: Mathematical models of infectious diseases have been used to study the effect of different mechanism in the transmission, such as vaccination, restrictions on the mobility of people or preventive policies. Models shows modifications in the epidemiology of a disease under abrupt changes in the transmissibility, both in the magnitude and periodicity of the outbreaks and in the age profile of the affected population. In this work, we analysed possible effects of the pandemic on other infectious diseases due to the decrease in transmissibility, as a result of the measures of personal care adopted to reduce circulation of COVID-19. Method: We used a deterministic SIRS (susceptible-infected-recovered-susceptible) mathematical model with seasonal modulation to represent diseases with short duration immunity and annual cycle. Two scenarios of parameters were used, one of them for an influenza-like disease, and another for the respiratory syncytial virus (RSV)-type disease. Different transmissibility scenarios were analysed. Results: Changes found in the dynamic of the disease are sustained in the following years: pronounced epidemic events with lengthening of the inter-outbreak interval, and even loss of behaviour typical seasonal. The effect of reducing transmissibility results dominant over the seasonal behaviour. The scenario with a 40% initial reduction in transmissibility is compatible with the influenza and RSV data currently reported for Argentina. Discussion: The general model proposed, under conditions of reduced transmissibility, exhibits an epidemiology compatible with recently reported data of influenza and RSV. This result illustrates the mathematical modeling of infectious diseases as a useful tool to understanding possible non-intuitive effects.