Nonlinearities in the relationship between public debt and economic growth: an application to the Brazilian case

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Salomão Neto, Benito Adelmo
Data de Publicação: 2023
Outros Autores: Silva, Cleomar Gomes da
Tipo de documento: preprint
Idioma: por
Título da fonte: SciELO Preprints
Texto Completo: https://preprints.scielo.org/index.php/scielo/preprint/view/6346
Resumo: This article assesses the relationship between public debt and economic growth in Brazil between 2002Q4 and 2020Q4. The Autoregressive Threshold estimations suggest a tipping point for the country’s Gross Debt to GDP ratio of 84% of GDP, and for the Net Debt to GDP ratio of 59% of GDP, beyond which public indebtedness starts to put negative pressure on GDP growth. Non-linear effects of the debt to GDP ratio on output are also estimated, via Markov Switching Regime, for different levels of the Debt/GDP ratio. The results indicate that the transition from a low to a high debt to GDP ratio regime causes a reduction in the Brazilian GDP growth rate.
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spelling Nonlinearities in the relationship between public debt and economic growth: an application to the Brazilian caseNão linearidades na relação entre a dívida pública e o crescimento econômico: uma aplicação ao caso brasileiroLimiar AutorregressivoRegimes Markovianosdívida públicacrescimento do PIBThreshold AutoregressiveMarkov Switching Regimepublic debtGDP growthThis article assesses the relationship between public debt and economic growth in Brazil between 2002Q4 and 2020Q4. The Autoregressive Threshold estimations suggest a tipping point for the country’s Gross Debt to GDP ratio of 84% of GDP, and for the Net Debt to GDP ratio of 59% of GDP, beyond which public indebtedness starts to put negative pressure on GDP growth. Non-linear effects of the debt to GDP ratio on output are also estimated, via Markov Switching Regime, for different levels of the Debt/GDP ratio. The results indicate that the transition from a low to a high debt to GDP ratio regime causes a reduction in the Brazilian GDP growth rate.Este artigo avalia a relação entre dívida pública e crescimento econômico no Brasil entre os quartos trimestres de 2002 e de 2020. Primeiramente, são estimados Modelos Limiares Autorregressivos, cujos resultados sugerem um ponto de inflexão para uma relação dívida bruta/PIB de 84% do PIB e de 59% do PIB para a relação dívida líquida/PIB, para além dos quais o endividamento público passa a exercer pressão negativa sobre o crescimento econômico. Também são estimados os efeitos não lineares da relação dívida/PIB sobre o produto, por meio de Regressões de Mudanças de Regime Markoviano, para diferentes níveis da relação dívida/PIB. Os resultados indicam que a transição de regimes de baixa relação dívida/PIB para alta relação dívida/PIB provoca redução na taxa de crescimento econômico no Brasil.SciELO PreprintsSciELO PreprintsSciELO Preprints2023-06-30info:eu-repo/semantics/preprintinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttps://preprints.scielo.org/index.php/scielo/preprint/view/634610.1590/0103-6351/7461porhttps://preprints.scielo.org/index.php/scielo/article/view/6346/12115Copyright (c) 2023 Benito Adelmo Salomão Neto, Cleomar Gomes da Silvahttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessSalomão Neto, Benito AdelmoSilva, Cleomar Gomes dareponame:SciELO Preprintsinstname:Scientific Electronic Library Online (SCIELO)instacron:SCI2023-06-29T23:55:41Zoai:ops.preprints.scielo.org:preprint/6346Servidor de preprintshttps://preprints.scielo.org/index.php/scieloONGhttps://preprints.scielo.org/index.php/scielo/oaiscielo.submission@scielo.orgopendoar:2023-06-29T23:55:41SciELO Preprints - Scientific Electronic Library Online (SCIELO)false
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Nonlinearities in the relationship between public debt and economic growth: an application to the Brazilian case
Não linearidades na relação entre a dívida pública e o crescimento econômico: uma aplicação ao caso brasileiro
title Nonlinearities in the relationship between public debt and economic growth: an application to the Brazilian case
spellingShingle Nonlinearities in the relationship between public debt and economic growth: an application to the Brazilian case
Salomão Neto, Benito Adelmo
Limiar Autorregressivo
Regimes Markovianos
dívida pública
crescimento do PIB
Threshold Autoregressive
Markov Switching Regime
public debt
GDP growth
title_short Nonlinearities in the relationship between public debt and economic growth: an application to the Brazilian case
title_full Nonlinearities in the relationship between public debt and economic growth: an application to the Brazilian case
title_fullStr Nonlinearities in the relationship between public debt and economic growth: an application to the Brazilian case
title_full_unstemmed Nonlinearities in the relationship between public debt and economic growth: an application to the Brazilian case
title_sort Nonlinearities in the relationship between public debt and economic growth: an application to the Brazilian case
author Salomão Neto, Benito Adelmo
author_facet Salomão Neto, Benito Adelmo
Silva, Cleomar Gomes da
author_role author
author2 Silva, Cleomar Gomes da
author2_role author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Salomão Neto, Benito Adelmo
Silva, Cleomar Gomes da
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Limiar Autorregressivo
Regimes Markovianos
dívida pública
crescimento do PIB
Threshold Autoregressive
Markov Switching Regime
public debt
GDP growth
topic Limiar Autorregressivo
Regimes Markovianos
dívida pública
crescimento do PIB
Threshold Autoregressive
Markov Switching Regime
public debt
GDP growth
description This article assesses the relationship between public debt and economic growth in Brazil between 2002Q4 and 2020Q4. The Autoregressive Threshold estimations suggest a tipping point for the country’s Gross Debt to GDP ratio of 84% of GDP, and for the Net Debt to GDP ratio of 59% of GDP, beyond which public indebtedness starts to put negative pressure on GDP growth. Non-linear effects of the debt to GDP ratio on output are also estimated, via Markov Switching Regime, for different levels of the Debt/GDP ratio. The results indicate that the transition from a low to a high debt to GDP ratio regime causes a reduction in the Brazilian GDP growth rate.
publishDate 2023
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2023-06-30
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/preprint
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format preprint
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv https://preprints.scielo.org/index.php/scielo/preprint/view/6346
10.1590/0103-6351/7461
url https://preprints.scielo.org/index.php/scielo/preprint/view/6346
identifier_str_mv 10.1590/0103-6351/7461
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv por
language por
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv https://preprints.scielo.org/index.php/scielo/article/view/6346/12115
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv Copyright (c) 2023 Benito Adelmo Salomão Neto, Cleomar Gomes da Silva
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv Copyright (c) 2023 Benito Adelmo Salomão Neto, Cleomar Gomes da Silva
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv SciELO Preprints
SciELO Preprints
SciELO Preprints
publisher.none.fl_str_mv SciELO Preprints
SciELO Preprints
SciELO Preprints
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:SciELO Preprints
instname:Scientific Electronic Library Online (SCIELO)
instacron:SCI
instname_str Scientific Electronic Library Online (SCIELO)
instacron_str SCI
institution SCI
reponame_str SciELO Preprints
collection SciELO Preprints
repository.name.fl_str_mv SciELO Preprints - Scientific Electronic Library Online (SCIELO)
repository.mail.fl_str_mv scielo.submission@scielo.org
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