Political risk and the politics of risk: perceptions and interferences by the rating agencies in Brazil and Argentina
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2023 |
Outros Autores: | |
Tipo de documento: | Tese |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da UERJ |
Texto Completo: | http://www.bdtd.uerj.br/handle/1/20680 |
Resumo: | This thesis examines the behavior of rating agencies in the face of political and economic events in developing countries. It starts from the diagnosis that Standard & Poor's (S&P), Moody's Investors Service (Moody's), and Fitch Ratings (Fitch) are relevant actors in the current financial order, being capable of interfering in the political and economic dynamics of rated countries, especially developing ones, which are more vulnerable to global financial dynamics. The central argument of this research posits that the credit rating agencies act to influence the political process and the execution of economic policy in developing countries through a coordinated issuance of sovereign ratings, reports, and press releases. This influence is made possible by the role played by S&P, Moody’s, and Fitch within the international order of financial globalization, which enables them to advance the financial market agenda while interacting with governments of developing countries. In pursuit of this objective, they frequently resort to forms of political activism that tend to mirror the political risk conditions they assess in the rated country. This argument is theoretically supported by the literature on the restrictions imposed by the context of financial globalization and financialization on the autonomy of national governments and by studies in the field of International Political Economy (IPE) on rating agencies’ behavior. The analysis is built on the case studies of Brazil and Argentina, over the first two decades of the 21st century, when both countries experienced the rise and fall of the “pink tide”, as well as relevant variations in the international environment. The research is based on sovereign ratings, reports, and press releases published by S&P, Moody's, and Fitch, as well as reactions from the governments of Brazil and Argentina to these actions, documented in newspapers, magazines, and official notes. Examining this interaction, in the light of the referred theoretical framework and the contextualization offered by the academic literature, allows for reaching conclusions aligned with the argument. Thereby, this study contributes to advancing the IPE research agenda on rating agencies, in particular, and the impacts of financial globalization and financialization on democracy, in general. |
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Paula, Luiz Fernando Rodrigues dehttp://lattes.cnpq.br/3378141737377054Santos, Fabiano Guilherme Mendeshttp://lattes.cnpq.br/3534868879163140Lima, Maria Regina Soares de Limahttp://lattes.cnpq.br/4161307140465507Fritz, BarbaraNölke, Andreashttp://lattes.cnpq.br/8284094783475236Machado, Pedro Lange Nettopedrolangenm@gmail.com2023-11-23T20:00:56Z2023-09-26MACHADO, Pedro Lange Netto. Political risk and the politics of risk: assessments and interferences of the rating agencies in Brazil and Argentina. Orientador: Luiz Fernando Rodrigues de Paula. 2023. 273 f. Tese (Doutorado em Ciência Política) – Instituto de Estudos Sociais e Políticos, Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, 2023.http://www.bdtd.uerj.br/handle/1/20680This thesis examines the behavior of rating agencies in the face of political and economic events in developing countries. It starts from the diagnosis that Standard & Poor's (S&P), Moody's Investors Service (Moody's), and Fitch Ratings (Fitch) are relevant actors in the current financial order, being capable of interfering in the political and economic dynamics of rated countries, especially developing ones, which are more vulnerable to global financial dynamics. The central argument of this research posits that the credit rating agencies act to influence the political process and the execution of economic policy in developing countries through a coordinated issuance of sovereign ratings, reports, and press releases. This influence is made possible by the role played by S&P, Moody’s, and Fitch within the international order of financial globalization, which enables them to advance the financial market agenda while interacting with governments of developing countries. In pursuit of this objective, they frequently resort to forms of political activism that tend to mirror the political risk conditions they assess in the rated country. This argument is theoretically supported by the literature on the restrictions imposed by the context of financial globalization and financialization on the autonomy of national governments and by studies in the field of International Political Economy (IPE) on rating agencies’ behavior. The analysis is built on the case studies of Brazil and Argentina, over the first two decades of the 21st century, when both countries experienced the rise and fall of the “pink tide”, as well as relevant variations in the international environment. The research is based on sovereign ratings, reports, and press releases published by S&P, Moody's, and Fitch, as well as reactions from the governments of Brazil and Argentina to these actions, documented in newspapers, magazines, and official notes. Examining this interaction, in the light of the referred theoretical framework and the contextualization offered by the academic literature, allows for reaching conclusions aligned with the argument. Thereby, this study contributes to advancing the IPE research agenda on rating agencies, in particular, and the impacts of financial globalization and financialization on democracy, in general.Esta pesquisa examina o comportamento das agências de rating frente a eventos políticos e econômicos de países em desenvolvimento. Parte-se do diagnóstico de que Standard & Poor’s (S&P), Moody’s Investors Service (Moody’s) e Fitch Ratings (Fitch) são atores relevantes na ordem financeira corrente, sendo capazes de interferir na dinâmica política e econômica dos países que avaliam, sobretudo países em desenvolvimento, que são mais vulneráveis à dinâmica financeira global. O argumento central é que as agências de rating atuam para influenciar o processo político e a implementação da política econômica de países em desenvolvimento por meio da emissão coordenada de ratings, relatórios e press releases. Essa influência é viabilizada pelo papel desempenhado por S&P, Moody’s e Fitch na ordem da globalização financeira, que as permite promover a agenda do mercado financeiro quando interagem com governos de países em desenvolvimento. Para tanto, as agências frequentemente recorrem a formas de ativismo político que tendem a refletir as condições de risco político que avaliam haver no país em questão. Tal argumento é sustentado teoricamente pela literatura sobre as restrições que o contexto de globalização financeira e financeirização do capitalismo impõe à autonomia de governos nacionais e por estudos do campo da Economia Política Internacional (EPI) sobre o comportamento das agências de rating. A análise se constrói sobre os estudos dos casos de Brasil e Argentina, ao longo das duas primeiras décadas do século XXI, quando ambos os países experimentam a ascensão e o declínio da “maré rosa”, bem como variações relevantes na conjuntura internacional. A pesquisa se baseia nos ratings soberanos, relatórios e press releases publicados por S&P, Moody’s e Fitch, bem como em reações dos respectivos governos de Brasil e Argentina a essas ações, documentadas em jornais, revistas e notas oficiais. O exame dessa interação, à luz do referido marco teórico e da contextualização oferecida pela literatura acadêmica, permite alcançar conclusões alinhadas ao argumento da pesquisa. Desse modo, o estudo contribui para avançar a agenda de pesquisa de EPI em torno das agências de rating, em particular, e dos impactos da globalização financeira e da financeirização do capitalismo sobre a democracia, de forma mais ampla.Submitted by Mikaellen de Souza Silva (mikaellensouza.silva@gmail.com) on 2023-11-23T20:00:56Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese - Pedro Lange Netto Machado - 2023 - Completa.pdf: 3001280 bytes, checksum: f5aee55c670c78fb1c17a5ab49a1bce1 (MD5)Made available in DSpace on 2023-11-23T20:00:56Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese - Pedro Lange Netto Machado - 2023 - Completa.pdf: 3001280 bytes, checksum: f5aee55c670c78fb1c17a5ab49a1bce1 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2023-09-26Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico - CNPqDeutscher Akademischer Austauschdienst (Alemanha) - DAADapplication/pdfengUniversidade do Estado do Rio de JaneiroPrograma de Pós-Graduação em Ciência PolíticaUERJBrasilCentro de Ciências Sociais::Instituto de Estudos Sociais e PolíticosInternational financial orderRating agenciesBrazilArgentinaOrdem financeira internacionalAgências de ratingBrasilArgentinaCIENCIAS HUMANAS::CIENCIA POLITICA::POLITICA INTERNACIONALPolitical risk and the politics of risk: perceptions and interferences by the rating agencies in Brazil and ArgentinaO risco político e a política do risco: percepções e ingerências das agências de rating no Brasil e na Argentinainfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesisinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da UERJinstname:Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (UERJ)instacron:UERJORIGINALTese - Pedro Lange Netto Machado - 2023 - Completa.pdfTese - Pedro Lange Netto Machado - 2023 - Completa.pdfapplication/pdf3001280http://www.bdtd.uerj.br/bitstream/1/20680/2/Tese+-+Pedro+Lange+Netto+Machado+-+2023+-+Completa.pdff5aee55c670c78fb1c17a5ab49a1bce1MD52LICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-82123http://www.bdtd.uerj.br/bitstream/1/20680/1/license.txte5502652da718045d7fcd832b79fca29MD511/206802024-02-26 11:40:35.523oai:www.bdtd.uerj.br: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Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertaçõeshttp://www.bdtd.uerj.br/PUBhttps://www.bdtd.uerj.br:8443/oai/requestbdtd.suporte@uerj.bropendoar:29032024-02-26T14:40:35Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da UERJ - Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (UERJ)false |
dc.title.por.fl_str_mv |
Political risk and the politics of risk: perceptions and interferences by the rating agencies in Brazil and Argentina |
dc.title.alternative.por.fl_str_mv |
O risco político e a política do risco: percepções e ingerências das agências de rating no Brasil e na Argentina |
title |
Political risk and the politics of risk: perceptions and interferences by the rating agencies in Brazil and Argentina |
spellingShingle |
Political risk and the politics of risk: perceptions and interferences by the rating agencies in Brazil and Argentina Machado, Pedro Lange Netto International financial order Rating agencies Brazil Argentina Ordem financeira internacional Agências de rating Brasil Argentina CIENCIAS HUMANAS::CIENCIA POLITICA::POLITICA INTERNACIONAL |
title_short |
Political risk and the politics of risk: perceptions and interferences by the rating agencies in Brazil and Argentina |
title_full |
Political risk and the politics of risk: perceptions and interferences by the rating agencies in Brazil and Argentina |
title_fullStr |
Political risk and the politics of risk: perceptions and interferences by the rating agencies in Brazil and Argentina |
title_full_unstemmed |
Political risk and the politics of risk: perceptions and interferences by the rating agencies in Brazil and Argentina |
title_sort |
Political risk and the politics of risk: perceptions and interferences by the rating agencies in Brazil and Argentina |
author |
Machado, Pedro Lange Netto |
author_facet |
Machado, Pedro Lange Netto pedrolangenm@gmail.com |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
pedrolangenm@gmail.com |
author2_role |
author |
dc.contributor.advisor1.fl_str_mv |
Paula, Luiz Fernando Rodrigues de |
dc.contributor.advisor1Lattes.fl_str_mv |
http://lattes.cnpq.br/3378141737377054 |
dc.contributor.referee1.fl_str_mv |
Santos, Fabiano Guilherme Mendes |
dc.contributor.referee1Lattes.fl_str_mv |
http://lattes.cnpq.br/3534868879163140 |
dc.contributor.referee2.fl_str_mv |
Lima, Maria Regina Soares de Lima |
dc.contributor.referee2Lattes.fl_str_mv |
http://lattes.cnpq.br/4161307140465507 |
dc.contributor.referee3.fl_str_mv |
Fritz, Barbara |
dc.contributor.referee4.fl_str_mv |
Nölke, Andreas |
dc.contributor.authorLattes.fl_str_mv |
http://lattes.cnpq.br/8284094783475236 |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Machado, Pedro Lange Netto pedrolangenm@gmail.com |
contributor_str_mv |
Paula, Luiz Fernando Rodrigues de Santos, Fabiano Guilherme Mendes Lima, Maria Regina Soares de Lima Fritz, Barbara Nölke, Andreas |
dc.subject.eng.fl_str_mv |
International financial order Rating agencies Brazil Argentina |
topic |
International financial order Rating agencies Brazil Argentina Ordem financeira internacional Agências de rating Brasil Argentina CIENCIAS HUMANAS::CIENCIA POLITICA::POLITICA INTERNACIONAL |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Ordem financeira internacional Agências de rating Brasil Argentina |
dc.subject.cnpq.fl_str_mv |
CIENCIAS HUMANAS::CIENCIA POLITICA::POLITICA INTERNACIONAL |
description |
This thesis examines the behavior of rating agencies in the face of political and economic events in developing countries. It starts from the diagnosis that Standard & Poor's (S&P), Moody's Investors Service (Moody's), and Fitch Ratings (Fitch) are relevant actors in the current financial order, being capable of interfering in the political and economic dynamics of rated countries, especially developing ones, which are more vulnerable to global financial dynamics. The central argument of this research posits that the credit rating agencies act to influence the political process and the execution of economic policy in developing countries through a coordinated issuance of sovereign ratings, reports, and press releases. This influence is made possible by the role played by S&P, Moody’s, and Fitch within the international order of financial globalization, which enables them to advance the financial market agenda while interacting with governments of developing countries. In pursuit of this objective, they frequently resort to forms of political activism that tend to mirror the political risk conditions they assess in the rated country. This argument is theoretically supported by the literature on the restrictions imposed by the context of financial globalization and financialization on the autonomy of national governments and by studies in the field of International Political Economy (IPE) on rating agencies’ behavior. The analysis is built on the case studies of Brazil and Argentina, over the first two decades of the 21st century, when both countries experienced the rise and fall of the “pink tide”, as well as relevant variations in the international environment. The research is based on sovereign ratings, reports, and press releases published by S&P, Moody's, and Fitch, as well as reactions from the governments of Brazil and Argentina to these actions, documented in newspapers, magazines, and official notes. Examining this interaction, in the light of the referred theoretical framework and the contextualization offered by the academic literature, allows for reaching conclusions aligned with the argument. Thereby, this study contributes to advancing the IPE research agenda on rating agencies, in particular, and the impacts of financial globalization and financialization on democracy, in general. |
publishDate |
2023 |
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv |
2023-11-23T20:00:56Z |
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv |
2023-09-26 |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesis |
format |
doctoralThesis |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.citation.fl_str_mv |
MACHADO, Pedro Lange Netto. Political risk and the politics of risk: assessments and interferences of the rating agencies in Brazil and Argentina. Orientador: Luiz Fernando Rodrigues de Paula. 2023. 273 f. Tese (Doutorado em Ciência Política) – Instituto de Estudos Sociais e Políticos, Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, 2023. |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://www.bdtd.uerj.br/handle/1/20680 |
identifier_str_mv |
MACHADO, Pedro Lange Netto. Political risk and the politics of risk: assessments and interferences of the rating agencies in Brazil and Argentina. Orientador: Luiz Fernando Rodrigues de Paula. 2023. 273 f. Tese (Doutorado em Ciência Política) – Instituto de Estudos Sociais e Políticos, Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, 2023. |
url |
http://www.bdtd.uerj.br/handle/1/20680 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
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eng |
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openAccess |
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Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro |
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UERJ |
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Brasil |
dc.publisher.department.fl_str_mv |
Centro de Ciências Sociais::Instituto de Estudos Sociais e Políticos |
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Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro |
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