Padrões epidemiológicos e distribuição espacial da dengue no estado do Ceará, 2001 a 2012

• Autor(a) principal: Verdiano, Verdiane de Araújo
• Data de Publicação: 2016
• Tipo de documento: Dissertação
• Idioma: por
• Título da fonte: Repositório Institucional da Universidade Federal do Ceará (UFC)
• Texto Completo: http://www.repositorio.ufc.br/handle/riufc/22425
• topic: Epidemiologia; Dengue; Análise Espacial; Análise de Regressão

Dengue has a worrying relevance for the state of Ceará, and therefore it is needed to understand the epidemiological situation in the state in order to raise knowledge for further forms of prevention. The aim of this study was to characterize a temporal tendency of dengue and identify clusters of major incidence of the disease. Ecological study was based on acquired data at DATASUS, Healthy Ministry system. The analyzed variables were the incidence of serious dengue in the general population and on persons under the age of 15. The analysis period was segmented in three groups of four years: 2001-2004, 2005-2008 and 2009-2012. A continuous linear regression was done with inflection points to characterize a temporal tendency and spatial analysis with map elaboration by Local Empirical Bayesian method, and also with spatial autocorrelation using local index of spatial association for MoranMap. Most of the municipalities of the state of Ceará has gross incidences between 0,1 and 206 cases of dengue per 100.000 inhabitants in the increased number of municipalities with major incidences from 2005 to 2008. An increasing incidence of dengue occurred, but in a gradual way. The years intersperse in low and high incidences. The years of major incidences are: 2001 with 672,27 cases of dengue per 100.000 inhabitants and 2012 with 607,29. The ones with the lowest incidences were 2004 with 48,39 and 2009 with 47,11. There is also an increasing tendency to serious cases of dengue for those under the age of 15. From 2001 to 2004 there was a cluster of high incidence and two of low incidence. In the period of 2005 to 2008, one cluster of high incidence and two of low one was verified. Still from 2009 to 2012 one cluster of high incidence and one of low was featured. Thus, the conclusion is that there is an ascending tendency for incidence of dengue on general population and serious dengue on those under the age of 15. There is no region to be told with clusters of high values or with low values statistically significant, except the southeastern region, mainly the municipality of Tauá, that holds high incidence of dengue and central eastern region with low incidence.