Dynamic bayesian statistical models for the estimation of the origin-destination matrix
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2015 |
Tipo de documento: | Tese |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da UFC |
Texto Completo: | http://www.teses.ufc.br/tde_busca/arquivo.php?codArquivo=14698 |
Resumo: | In transportation planning, one of the first steps is to estimate the travel demand. A product of the estimation process is the so-called origin-destination matrix (OD matrix), whose entries correspond to the number of trips between pairs of zones in a geographic region in a reference time period. Traditionally, the OD matrix has been estimated through direct methods, such as home-based surveys, road-side interviews and license plate automatic recognition. These direct methods require large samples to achieve a target statistical error, which may be technically or economically infeasible. Alternatively, one can use a statistical model to indirectly estimate the OD matrix from observed traffic volumes on links of the transportation network. The first estimation models proposed in the literature assume that traffic volumes in a sequence of days are independent and identically distributed samples of a static probability distribution. Moreover, static estimation models do not allow for variations in mean OD flows or non-constant variability over time. In contrast, day-to-day dynamic models are in theory more capable of capturing underlying changes of system parameters which are only indirectly observed through variations in traffic volumes. Even so, there is still a dearth of statistical models in the literature which account for the day-today dynamic evolution of transportation systems. In this thesis, our objective is to assess the potential gains and limitations of day-to-day dynamic models for the estimation of the OD matrix based on link volumes. First, we review the main static and dynamic models available in the literature. We then describe our proposed day-to-day dynamic Bayesian model based on the theory of linear dynamic models. The proposed model is tested by means of computational experiments and compared with a static estimation model and with the generalized least squares (GLS) model. The results show some advantage in favor of dynamic models in informative scenarios, while in non-informative scenarios the performance of the models were equivalent. The experiments also indicate a significant dependence of the estimation errors on the assignment matrices. |
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info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesisDynamic bayesian statistical models for the estimation of the origin-destination matrixDynamic bayesian statistical models for the estimation of the origin-destination matrixDynamic bayesian statistical models for the estimation of the origin-destination matrix2015-06-29Carlos Felipe Grangeiro Loureiro40835227391http://lattes.cnpq.br/5441748234108694 Bruno Vieira Bertoncini00828843902http://lattes.cnpq.br/3683357029229928Francisco Moraes de Oliveira Neto75536870300http://lattes.cnpq.br/7671802407202251ClÃudio Barbieri da Cunha06398816889http://lattes.cnpq.br/5689491238283383Luis Eduardo Ximenes Carvalhohttp://lattes.cnpq.br/965672593028788387689880363http://lattes.cnpq.br/5661587413564713Anselmo Ramalho Pitombeira NetoUniversidade Federal do CearÃPrograma de PÃs-GraduaÃÃo em Engenharia de Transportes-PETRANUFCBRTeoria Bayesiana de decisÃoOD matrix Estimation Bayesian statisticsENGENHARIA DE TRANSPORTESIn transportation planning, one of the first steps is to estimate the travel demand. A product of the estimation process is the so-called origin-destination matrix (OD matrix), whose entries correspond to the number of trips between pairs of zones in a geographic region in a reference time period. Traditionally, the OD matrix has been estimated through direct methods, such as home-based surveys, road-side interviews and license plate automatic recognition. These direct methods require large samples to achieve a target statistical error, which may be technically or economically infeasible. Alternatively, one can use a statistical model to indirectly estimate the OD matrix from observed traffic volumes on links of the transportation network. The first estimation models proposed in the literature assume that traffic volumes in a sequence of days are independent and identically distributed samples of a static probability distribution. Moreover, static estimation models do not allow for variations in mean OD flows or non-constant variability over time. In contrast, day-to-day dynamic models are in theory more capable of capturing underlying changes of system parameters which are only indirectly observed through variations in traffic volumes. Even so, there is still a dearth of statistical models in the literature which account for the day-today dynamic evolution of transportation systems. In this thesis, our objective is to assess the potential gains and limitations of day-to-day dynamic models for the estimation of the OD matrix based on link volumes. First, we review the main static and dynamic models available in the literature. We then describe our proposed day-to-day dynamic Bayesian model based on the theory of linear dynamic models. The proposed model is tested by means of computational experiments and compared with a static estimation model and with the generalized least squares (GLS) model. The results show some advantage in favor of dynamic models in informative scenarios, while in non-informative scenarios the performance of the models were equivalent. The experiments also indicate a significant dependence of the estimation errors on the assignment matrices.In transportation planning, one of the first steps is to estimate the travel demand. A product of the estimation process is the so-called origin-destination matrix (OD matrix), whose entries correspond to the number of trips between pairs of zones in a geographic region in a reference time period. Traditionally, the OD matrix has been estimated through direct methods, such as home-based surveys, road-side interviews and license plate automatic recognition. These direct methods require large samples to achieve a target statistical error, which may be technically or economically infeasible. Alternatively, one can use a statistical model to indirectly estimate the OD matrix from observed traffic volumes on links of the transportation network. The first estimation models proposed in the literature assume that traffic volumes in a sequence of days are independent and identically distributed samples of a static probability distribution. Moreover, static estimation models do not allow for variations in mean OD flows or non-constant variability over time. In contrast, day-to-day dynamic models are in theory more capable of capturing underlying changes of system parameters which are only indirectly observed through variations in traffic volumes. Even so, there is still a dearth of statistical models in the literature which account for the day-today dynamic evolution of transportation systems. In this thesis, our objective is to assess the potential gains and limitations of day-to-day dynamic models for the estimation of the OD matrix based on link volumes. First, we review the main static and dynamic models available in the literature. We then describe our proposed day-to-day dynamic Bayesian model based on the theory of linear dynamic models. The proposed model is tested by means of computational experiments and compared with a static estimation model and with the generalized least squares (GLS) model. The results show some advantage in favor of dynamic models in informative scenarios, while in non-informative scenarios the performance of the models were equivalent. The experiments also indicate a significant dependence of the estimation errors on the assignment matrices.In transportation planning, one of the first steps is to estimate the travel demand. A product of the estimation process is the so-called origin-destination matrix (OD matrix), whose entries correspond to the number of trips between pairs of zones in a geographic region in a reference time period. Traditionally, the OD matrix has been estimated through direct methods, such as home-based surveys, road-side interviews and license plate automatic recognition. These direct methods require large samples to achieve a target statistical error, which may be technically or economically infeasible. Alternatively, one can use a statistical model to indirectly estimate the OD matrix from observed traffic volumes on links of the transportation network. The first estimation models proposed in the literature assume that traffic volumes in a sequence of days are independent and identically distributed samples of a static probability distribution. Moreover, static estimation models do not allow for variations in mean OD flows or non-constant variability over time. In contrast, day-to-day dynamic models are in theory more capable of capturing underlying changes of system parameters which are only indirectly observed through variations in traffic volumes. Even so, there is still a dearth of statistical models in the literature which account for the day-today dynamic evolution of transportation systems. In this thesis, our objective is to assess the potential gains and limitations of day-to-day dynamic models for the estimation of the OD matrix based on link volumes. First, we review the main static and dynamic models available in the literature. We then describe our proposed day-to-day dynamic Bayesian model based on the theory of linear dynamic models. The proposed model is tested by means of computational experiments and compared with a static estimation model and with the generalized least squares (GLS) model. The results show some advantage in favor of dynamic models in informative scenarios, while in non-informative scenarios the performance of the models were equivalent. The experiments also indicate a significant dependence of the estimation errors on the assignment matrices.http://www.teses.ufc.br/tde_busca/arquivo.php?codArquivo=14698application/pdfinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessengreponame:Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da UFCinstname:Universidade Federal do Cearáinstacron:UFC2019-01-21T11:27:58Zmail@mail.com - |
dc.title.en.fl_str_mv |
Dynamic bayesian statistical models for the estimation of the origin-destination matrix |
dc.title.alternative.en.fl_str_mv |
Dynamic bayesian statistical models for the estimation of the origin-destination matrix Dynamic bayesian statistical models for the estimation of the origin-destination matrix |
title |
Dynamic bayesian statistical models for the estimation of the origin-destination matrix |
spellingShingle |
Dynamic bayesian statistical models for the estimation of the origin-destination matrix Anselmo Ramalho Pitombeira Neto Teoria Bayesiana de decisÃo OD matrix Estimation Bayesian statistics ENGENHARIA DE TRANSPORTES |
title_short |
Dynamic bayesian statistical models for the estimation of the origin-destination matrix |
title_full |
Dynamic bayesian statistical models for the estimation of the origin-destination matrix |
title_fullStr |
Dynamic bayesian statistical models for the estimation of the origin-destination matrix |
title_full_unstemmed |
Dynamic bayesian statistical models for the estimation of the origin-destination matrix |
title_sort |
Dynamic bayesian statistical models for the estimation of the origin-destination matrix |
author |
Anselmo Ramalho Pitombeira Neto |
author_facet |
Anselmo Ramalho Pitombeira Neto |
author_role |
author |
dc.contributor.advisor1.fl_str_mv |
Carlos Felipe Grangeiro Loureiro |
dc.contributor.advisor1ID.fl_str_mv |
40835227391 |
dc.contributor.advisor1Lattes.fl_str_mv |
http://lattes.cnpq.br/5441748234108694 |
dc.contributor.referee1.fl_str_mv |
Bruno Vieira Bertoncini |
dc.contributor.referee1ID.fl_str_mv |
00828843902 |
dc.contributor.referee1Lattes.fl_str_mv |
http://lattes.cnpq.br/3683357029229928 |
dc.contributor.referee2.fl_str_mv |
Francisco Moraes de Oliveira Neto |
dc.contributor.referee2ID.fl_str_mv |
75536870300 |
dc.contributor.referee2Lattes.fl_str_mv |
http://lattes.cnpq.br/7671802407202251 |
dc.contributor.referee3.fl_str_mv |
ClÃudio Barbieri da Cunha |
dc.contributor.referee3ID.fl_str_mv |
06398816889 |
dc.contributor.referee3Lattes.fl_str_mv |
http://lattes.cnpq.br/5689491238283383 |
dc.contributor.referee4.fl_str_mv |
Luis Eduardo Ximenes Carvalho |
dc.contributor.referee4Lattes.fl_str_mv |
http://lattes.cnpq.br/9656725930287883 |
dc.contributor.authorID.fl_str_mv |
87689880363 |
dc.contributor.authorLattes.fl_str_mv |
http://lattes.cnpq.br/5661587413564713 |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Anselmo Ramalho Pitombeira Neto |
contributor_str_mv |
Carlos Felipe Grangeiro Loureiro Bruno Vieira Bertoncini Francisco Moraes de Oliveira Neto ClÃudio Barbieri da Cunha Luis Eduardo Ximenes Carvalho |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Teoria Bayesiana de decisÃo |
topic |
Teoria Bayesiana de decisÃo OD matrix Estimation Bayesian statistics ENGENHARIA DE TRANSPORTES |
dc.subject.eng.fl_str_mv |
OD matrix Estimation Bayesian statistics |
dc.subject.cnpq.fl_str_mv |
ENGENHARIA DE TRANSPORTES |
dc.description.abstract.por.fl_txt_mv |
In transportation planning, one of the first steps is to estimate the travel demand. A product of the estimation process is the so-called origin-destination matrix (OD matrix), whose entries correspond to the number of trips between pairs of zones in a geographic region in a reference time period. Traditionally, the OD matrix has been estimated through direct methods, such as home-based surveys, road-side interviews and license plate automatic recognition. These direct methods require large samples to achieve a target statistical error, which may be technically or economically infeasible. Alternatively, one can use a statistical model to indirectly estimate the OD matrix from observed traffic volumes on links of the transportation network. The first estimation models proposed in the literature assume that traffic volumes in a sequence of days are independent and identically distributed samples of a static probability distribution. Moreover, static estimation models do not allow for variations in mean OD flows or non-constant variability over time. In contrast, day-to-day dynamic models are in theory more capable of capturing underlying changes of system parameters which are only indirectly observed through variations in traffic volumes. Even so, there is still a dearth of statistical models in the literature which account for the day-today dynamic evolution of transportation systems. In this thesis, our objective is to assess the potential gains and limitations of day-to-day dynamic models for the estimation of the OD matrix based on link volumes. First, we review the main static and dynamic models available in the literature. We then describe our proposed day-to-day dynamic Bayesian model based on the theory of linear dynamic models. The proposed model is tested by means of computational experiments and compared with a static estimation model and with the generalized least squares (GLS) model. The results show some advantage in favor of dynamic models in informative scenarios, while in non-informative scenarios the performance of the models were equivalent. The experiments also indicate a significant dependence of the estimation errors on the assignment matrices. |
dc.description.abstract.eng.fl_txt_mv |
In transportation planning, one of the first steps is to estimate the travel demand. A product of the estimation process is the so-called origin-destination matrix (OD matrix), whose entries correspond to the number of trips between pairs of zones in a geographic region in a reference time period. Traditionally, the OD matrix has been estimated through direct methods, such as home-based surveys, road-side interviews and license plate automatic recognition. These direct methods require large samples to achieve a target statistical error, which may be technically or economically infeasible. Alternatively, one can use a statistical model to indirectly estimate the OD matrix from observed traffic volumes on links of the transportation network. The first estimation models proposed in the literature assume that traffic volumes in a sequence of days are independent and identically distributed samples of a static probability distribution. Moreover, static estimation models do not allow for variations in mean OD flows or non-constant variability over time. In contrast, day-to-day dynamic models are in theory more capable of capturing underlying changes of system parameters which are only indirectly observed through variations in traffic volumes. Even so, there is still a dearth of statistical models in the literature which account for the day-today dynamic evolution of transportation systems. In this thesis, our objective is to assess the potential gains and limitations of day-to-day dynamic models for the estimation of the OD matrix based on link volumes. First, we review the main static and dynamic models available in the literature. We then describe our proposed day-to-day dynamic Bayesian model based on the theory of linear dynamic models. The proposed model is tested by means of computational experiments and compared with a static estimation model and with the generalized least squares (GLS) model. The results show some advantage in favor of dynamic models in informative scenarios, while in non-informative scenarios the performance of the models were equivalent. The experiments also indicate a significant dependence of the estimation errors on the assignment matrices. In transportation planning, one of the first steps is to estimate the travel demand. A product of the estimation process is the so-called origin-destination matrix (OD matrix), whose entries correspond to the number of trips between pairs of zones in a geographic region in a reference time period. Traditionally, the OD matrix has been estimated through direct methods, such as home-based surveys, road-side interviews and license plate automatic recognition. These direct methods require large samples to achieve a target statistical error, which may be technically or economically infeasible. Alternatively, one can use a statistical model to indirectly estimate the OD matrix from observed traffic volumes on links of the transportation network. The first estimation models proposed in the literature assume that traffic volumes in a sequence of days are independent and identically distributed samples of a static probability distribution. Moreover, static estimation models do not allow for variations in mean OD flows or non-constant variability over time. In contrast, day-to-day dynamic models are in theory more capable of capturing underlying changes of system parameters which are only indirectly observed through variations in traffic volumes. Even so, there is still a dearth of statistical models in the literature which account for the day-today dynamic evolution of transportation systems. In this thesis, our objective is to assess the potential gains and limitations of day-to-day dynamic models for the estimation of the OD matrix based on link volumes. First, we review the main static and dynamic models available in the literature. We then describe our proposed day-to-day dynamic Bayesian model based on the theory of linear dynamic models. The proposed model is tested by means of computational experiments and compared with a static estimation model and with the generalized least squares (GLS) model. The results show some advantage in favor of dynamic models in informative scenarios, while in non-informative scenarios the performance of the models were equivalent. The experiments also indicate a significant dependence of the estimation errors on the assignment matrices. |
description |
In transportation planning, one of the first steps is to estimate the travel demand. A product of the estimation process is the so-called origin-destination matrix (OD matrix), whose entries correspond to the number of trips between pairs of zones in a geographic region in a reference time period. Traditionally, the OD matrix has been estimated through direct methods, such as home-based surveys, road-side interviews and license plate automatic recognition. These direct methods require large samples to achieve a target statistical error, which may be technically or economically infeasible. Alternatively, one can use a statistical model to indirectly estimate the OD matrix from observed traffic volumes on links of the transportation network. The first estimation models proposed in the literature assume that traffic volumes in a sequence of days are independent and identically distributed samples of a static probability distribution. Moreover, static estimation models do not allow for variations in mean OD flows or non-constant variability over time. In contrast, day-to-day dynamic models are in theory more capable of capturing underlying changes of system parameters which are only indirectly observed through variations in traffic volumes. Even so, there is still a dearth of statistical models in the literature which account for the day-today dynamic evolution of transportation systems. In this thesis, our objective is to assess the potential gains and limitations of day-to-day dynamic models for the estimation of the OD matrix based on link volumes. First, we review the main static and dynamic models available in the literature. We then describe our proposed day-to-day dynamic Bayesian model based on the theory of linear dynamic models. The proposed model is tested by means of computational experiments and compared with a static estimation model and with the generalized least squares (GLS) model. The results show some advantage in favor of dynamic models in informative scenarios, while in non-informative scenarios the performance of the models were equivalent. The experiments also indicate a significant dependence of the estimation errors on the assignment matrices. |
publishDate |
2015 |
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv |
2015-06-29 |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesis |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
format |
doctoralThesis |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://www.teses.ufc.br/tde_busca/arquivo.php?codArquivo=14698 |
url |
http://www.teses.ufc.br/tde_busca/arquivo.php?codArquivo=14698 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade Federal do Cearà |
dc.publisher.program.fl_str_mv |
Programa de PÃs-GraduaÃÃo em Engenharia de Transportes-PETRAN |
dc.publisher.initials.fl_str_mv |
UFC |
dc.publisher.country.fl_str_mv |
BR |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade Federal do Cearà |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da UFC instname:Universidade Federal do Ceará instacron:UFC |
reponame_str |
Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da UFC |
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Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da UFC |
instname_str |
Universidade Federal do Ceará |
instacron_str |
UFC |
institution |
UFC |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
-
|
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
mail@mail.com |
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1643295206508855296 |