Detecção Automática de Ondas de Elliott em Mercado Acionário

• Autor(a) principal: CALAÇA, Raul Wonsjuk
• Data de Publicação: 2008
• Tipo de documento: Dissertação
• Idioma: por
• Título da fonte: Repositório Institucional da UFG
• Texto Completo: http://repositorio.bc.ufg.br/tede/handle/tde/962
• topic: Algoritmos Genéticos; Inteligência Artificial; Ondas de Elliott; Mercado Acionário; Bolsa de Valores; BM&FBOVESPA; Análise Técnica de Ações; Deteção de Ondas; Genetic Algorithm; Artificial Inteligence; Elliott Waves; Stock Market; BM&FBOVESPA; Stock Technical Analisys; Wave Detection; CNPQ::ENGENHARIAS

The Elliott Wave analysis is a technique developed for the prediction of prices of financial assets (stocks, exchange rates etc.). This work introduces the basic concepts of the financial market, focusing mainly on the Elliott Wave principle, which differs from other techniques for providing direction and intensity of changes in shares / stocks prices in the financial market. The Elliott Wave detection usually employs manual methods, since automated systems present high costs and are apparently based on trial and error method associated with Statistics. Manual methods assess, following some rules, the waves prospected by trial and error, and requires specialized training and experience. To automatically detect the waves of Elliott, this work suggests, develops and tests a computational system based on Genetic Algorithms, an Artificial Intelligence technique inspired on Biology. Genetic Algorithms are used to evolve answers to problems by assessing candidates, which are coded as chromosomes. Tests of the system were performed based on BM&FBOVESPA stocks with high daily liquidity. Simulations have indicated that the detected waves are satisfactory, with error rate below 3% in each inflection point.