Economic development and inflation: a theoretical and empirical analysis
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2018 |
Outros Autores: | , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Institucional da UFMG |
Texto Completo: | https://doi.org/10.1080/02692171.2017.1351531 http://hdl.handle.net/1843/46605 |
Resumo: | This paper studies the relation between inflation and economic development. The literature is largely silent regarding both the theoretical and empirical perspectives that undeveloped countries endure higher average inflation than developed economies. We present a simple theoretical model linking the inflation phenomenon to the tradition of development economics. Empirical evidence is garnered to test the hypothesis that economic development engenders a downward bias to inflation rates. Through the feasible-GLS estimator in a panel of 65 countries from 2001 to 2011, we aim at listing a number of variables most commonly used to explain differences in the stage of economic development across countries and identifying the most statistically relevant ones to account for differences in inflationary patterns. While our results show that inflation is inversely correlated with the level of the technological content of the economy (measured by share of high-tech exports), human capital and cyclical unemployment, it is directly related to the degree of inflation persistence and terms of trade growth. However, our findings still present an inverse and low correlation between inflation persistence and economic development, implying that development-sensitive variables allowed into the model can only partially account for the differences in inflation at different levels of economic development. |
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2022-10-25T18:52:51Z2022-10-25T18:52:51Z2018324546565https://doi.org/10.1080/02692171.2017.13515311465-3486http://hdl.handle.net/1843/46605This paper studies the relation between inflation and economic development. The literature is largely silent regarding both the theoretical and empirical perspectives that undeveloped countries endure higher average inflation than developed economies. We present a simple theoretical model linking the inflation phenomenon to the tradition of development economics. Empirical evidence is garnered to test the hypothesis that economic development engenders a downward bias to inflation rates. Through the feasible-GLS estimator in a panel of 65 countries from 2001 to 2011, we aim at listing a number of variables most commonly used to explain differences in the stage of economic development across countries and identifying the most statistically relevant ones to account for differences in inflationary patterns. While our results show that inflation is inversely correlated with the level of the technological content of the economy (measured by share of high-tech exports), human capital and cyclical unemployment, it is directly related to the degree of inflation persistence and terms of trade growth. However, our findings still present an inverse and low correlation between inflation persistence and economic development, implying that development-sensitive variables allowed into the model can only partially account for the differences in inflation at different levels of economic development.Este artigo estuda a relação entre inflação e desenvolvimento econômico. A literatura é bastante silenciosa em relação às perspectivas teóricas e empíricas de que os países subdesenvolvidos sofrem inflação média mais alta do que as economias desenvolvidas. Apresentamos um modelo teórico simples ligando o fenômeno da inflação à tradição da economia do desenvolvimento. São reunidas evidências empíricas para testar a hipótese de que o desenvolvimento econômico gera um viés de baixa nas taxas de inflação. Por meio do estimador viável-GLS em um painel de 65 países de 2001 a 2011, pretendemos listar uma série de variáveis mais comumente usadas para explicar as diferenças no estágio de desenvolvimento econômico entre os países e identificar as mais estatisticamente relevantes para explicar as diferenças em padrões inflacionários. Enquanto nossos resultados mostram que a inflação está inversamente correlacionada com o nível de conteúdo tecnológico da economia (medido pela participação das exportações de alta tecnologia), capital humano e desemprego cíclico, ela está diretamente relacionada ao grau de persistência da inflação e termos de troca crescimento. No entanto, nossos resultados ainda apresentam uma correlação inversa e baixa entre a persistência da inflação e o desenvolvimento econômico, o que implica que as variáveis sensíveis ao desenvolvimento permitidas no modelo podem explicar apenas parcialmente as diferenças de inflação em diferentes níveis de desenvolvimento econômico.engUniversidade Federal de Minas GeraisUFMGBrasilFCE - DEPARTAMENTO DE CIÊNCIAS ECONÔMICASInternational Review of Applied EconomicsDesenvolvimento econômicoInflaçãoeconomic developmentinflationFGLS estimatorEconomic development and inflation: a theoretical and empirical analysisDesenvolvimento econômico e inflação: uma teoria e análise empíricainfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articlehttps://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/02692171.2017.1351531André Roncaglia de CarvalhoRafael Saulo Marques RibeiroAndré M. Marquesapplication/pdfinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Institucional da UFMGinstname:Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG)instacron:UFMGLICENSELicense.txtLicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-82042https://repositorio.ufmg.br/bitstream/1843/46605/1/License.txtfa505098d172de0bc8864fc1287ffe22MD51ORIGINALEconomic development and inflation a theoretical and empirical analysis.pdfEconomic development and inflation a theoretical and empirical analysis.pdfapplication/pdf1897938https://repositorio.ufmg.br/bitstream/1843/46605/2/Economic%20development%20and%20inflation%20a%20theoretical%20and%20empirical%20analysis.pdfa16f91f34564e4cb24512c5764d6ed87MD521843/466052022-10-25 15:52:52.141oai:repositorio.ufmg.br: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Repositório de PublicaçõesPUBhttps://repositorio.ufmg.br/oaiopendoar:2022-10-25T18:52:52Repositório Institucional da UFMG - Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG)false |
dc.title.pt_BR.fl_str_mv |
Economic development and inflation: a theoretical and empirical analysis |
dc.title.alternative.pt_BR.fl_str_mv |
Desenvolvimento econômico e inflação: uma teoria e análise empírica |
title |
Economic development and inflation: a theoretical and empirical analysis |
spellingShingle |
Economic development and inflation: a theoretical and empirical analysis André Roncaglia de Carvalho economic development inflation FGLS estimator Desenvolvimento econômico Inflação |
title_short |
Economic development and inflation: a theoretical and empirical analysis |
title_full |
Economic development and inflation: a theoretical and empirical analysis |
title_fullStr |
Economic development and inflation: a theoretical and empirical analysis |
title_full_unstemmed |
Economic development and inflation: a theoretical and empirical analysis |
title_sort |
Economic development and inflation: a theoretical and empirical analysis |
author |
André Roncaglia de Carvalho |
author_facet |
André Roncaglia de Carvalho Rafael Saulo Marques Ribeiro André M. Marques |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Rafael Saulo Marques Ribeiro André M. Marques |
author2_role |
author author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
André Roncaglia de Carvalho Rafael Saulo Marques Ribeiro André M. Marques |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
economic development inflation FGLS estimator |
topic |
economic development inflation FGLS estimator Desenvolvimento econômico Inflação |
dc.subject.other.pt_BR.fl_str_mv |
Desenvolvimento econômico Inflação |
description |
This paper studies the relation between inflation and economic development. The literature is largely silent regarding both the theoretical and empirical perspectives that undeveloped countries endure higher average inflation than developed economies. We present a simple theoretical model linking the inflation phenomenon to the tradition of development economics. Empirical evidence is garnered to test the hypothesis that economic development engenders a downward bias to inflation rates. Through the feasible-GLS estimator in a panel of 65 countries from 2001 to 2011, we aim at listing a number of variables most commonly used to explain differences in the stage of economic development across countries and identifying the most statistically relevant ones to account for differences in inflationary patterns. While our results show that inflation is inversely correlated with the level of the technological content of the economy (measured by share of high-tech exports), human capital and cyclical unemployment, it is directly related to the degree of inflation persistence and terms of trade growth. However, our findings still present an inverse and low correlation between inflation persistence and economic development, implying that development-sensitive variables allowed into the model can only partially account for the differences in inflation at different levels of economic development. |
publishDate |
2018 |
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv |
2018 |
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv |
2022-10-25T18:52:51Z |
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv |
2022-10-25T18:52:51Z |
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article |
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dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/1843/46605 |
dc.identifier.doi.pt_BR.fl_str_mv |
https://doi.org/10.1080/02692171.2017.1351531 |
dc.identifier.issn.pt_BR.fl_str_mv |
1465-3486 |
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https://doi.org/10.1080/02692171.2017.1351531 http://hdl.handle.net/1843/46605 |
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International Review of Applied Economics |
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openAccess |
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Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais |
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Brasil |
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FCE - DEPARTAMENTO DE CIÊNCIAS ECONÔMICAS |
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Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais |
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