Índice de exposição à ação das secas meteorológicas: NIFT (Number/Intensity/Frequency/Trend) Index
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2023 |
Tipo de documento: | Tese |
Idioma: | por |
Título da fonte: | Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da UFPB |
Texto Completo: | https://repositorio.ufpb.br/jspui/handle/123456789/30011 |
Resumo: | Drought is a natural phenomenon, originated from the absence of precipitation over a certain period, capable of causing damage to different sectors of society. Thus, monitoring the spatiotemporal behavior and the level of exposure to the action of this phenomenon is a task of extreme importance for water resource management. In this sense, the objective of this work is to develop an index to quantify the level of exposure to the action of meteorological droughts: the NIFT (Number/Intensity/Frequency/Trend) Index. For its creation, ten parameters were used, which include information related to the quantity, intensity, frequency, and trends of droughts (behavior, duration, and severity) computed based on the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Three thousand and ninety precipitation series from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) distributed throughout Brazil over 50 years (1970–2019) were used, and the analyses were carried out at two spatial scales (grid and regional) and four temporal scales (monthly, quarterly, half-yearly and annual). Hierarchical cluster analysis procedures were applied to identify zones with similar behaviors, and the relationship between the level of exposure and the physical characteristics of each region was investigated using the Fisher test. The results show high variability in the spatiotemporal behavior of precipitation, such that the Northern region is the rainiest in Brazil, while the Central-West, Southeast, and Northeast regions are less rainy. Moreover, the characterization of drought events indicates that the number and average intensity of events are higher at the monthly and quarterly levels, while events are longer and more severe at the half-yearly and annual levels. Additionally, the data indicate that several regions have been affected by severe drought events in recent years, and the trend is for these events to be more frequent and significant in much of the country. The results indicate that the Northeast is the region with the highest level of exposure to the action of meteorological droughts, especially at the quarterly and half-yearly levels. The results of the hierarchical cluster analysis reveal high variability in the regionalization relative to the level of exposure to the action of droughts, but the pattern of the Northern and Southern regions differs from the other regions. Finally, the relationship between the NIFT values and the characteristics of each region suggests that areas with high precipitation variability have higher levels of exposure, while higher and rainier regions are less exposed. In conclusion, the NIFT has proven to be a powerful tool to assist in the monitoring process of meteorological droughts, and it is expected that its use will be disseminated to support decision-makers in various regions of the planet. |
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Índice de exposição à ação das secas meteorológicas: NIFT (Number/Intensity/Frequency/Trend) IndexSecas - ÍndicesSecas - MonitoramentoÍndices de exposição – Regiões - BrasilNIFTSPIDroughts - IndicesDroughts - MonitoringExposure indices – Regions - BrazilCNPQ::ENGENHARIAS::ENGENHARIA CIVILDrought is a natural phenomenon, originated from the absence of precipitation over a certain period, capable of causing damage to different sectors of society. Thus, monitoring the spatiotemporal behavior and the level of exposure to the action of this phenomenon is a task of extreme importance for water resource management. In this sense, the objective of this work is to develop an index to quantify the level of exposure to the action of meteorological droughts: the NIFT (Number/Intensity/Frequency/Trend) Index. For its creation, ten parameters were used, which include information related to the quantity, intensity, frequency, and trends of droughts (behavior, duration, and severity) computed based on the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Three thousand and ninety precipitation series from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) distributed throughout Brazil over 50 years (1970–2019) were used, and the analyses were carried out at two spatial scales (grid and regional) and four temporal scales (monthly, quarterly, half-yearly and annual). Hierarchical cluster analysis procedures were applied to identify zones with similar behaviors, and the relationship between the level of exposure and the physical characteristics of each region was investigated using the Fisher test. The results show high variability in the spatiotemporal behavior of precipitation, such that the Northern region is the rainiest in Brazil, while the Central-West, Southeast, and Northeast regions are less rainy. Moreover, the characterization of drought events indicates that the number and average intensity of events are higher at the monthly and quarterly levels, while events are longer and more severe at the half-yearly and annual levels. Additionally, the data indicate that several regions have been affected by severe drought events in recent years, and the trend is for these events to be more frequent and significant in much of the country. The results indicate that the Northeast is the region with the highest level of exposure to the action of meteorological droughts, especially at the quarterly and half-yearly levels. The results of the hierarchical cluster analysis reveal high variability in the regionalization relative to the level of exposure to the action of droughts, but the pattern of the Northern and Southern regions differs from the other regions. Finally, the relationship between the NIFT values and the characteristics of each region suggests that areas with high precipitation variability have higher levels of exposure, while higher and rainier regions are less exposed. In conclusion, the NIFT has proven to be a powerful tool to assist in the monitoring process of meteorological droughts, and it is expected that its use will be disseminated to support decision-makers in various regions of the planet.Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPESA seca é um fenômeno natural, originado a partir da ausência de precipitação ao longo de certo período, capaz de causar prejuízos a diferentes setores da sociedade. Dessa forma, monitorar o comportamento espaço-temporal e o nível de exposição à ação desse fenômeno é uma tarefa de extrema importância para o gerenciamento dos recursos hídricos. Nesse sentido, o objetivo deste trabalho é desenvolver um índice para quantificar o nível de exposição à ação das secas meteorológicas: o NIFT (Number/Intensity/Frequency/Trend) Index. Para sua criação, foram utilizados dez parâmetros que contemplam informações relacionadas à quantidade, intensidade, frequência e tendências das secas (comportamento, duração e severidade) computadas com base no Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Três mil e noventa séries de precipitação do Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) distribuídas pelo Brasil ao longo de 50 anos (1970– 2019) foram utilizadas, e as análises foram feitas em duas escalas espaciais (grid e regional) e em quatro escalas temporais (mensal, trimestral, semestral e anual). Procedimentos de análise de clusters hierárquicas foram aplicados para identificar zonas com comportamentos similares e a relação entre o nível de exposição e as características físicas de cada região foi investigada a partir do teste de Fisher. Os resultados mostram alta variabilidade no comportamento espaçotemporal da precipitação, tal que a região Norte é a mais chuvosa do Brasil, enquanto as regiões Centro-Oeste, Sudeste e Nordeste são menos chuvosas. De resto, a caracterização dos eventos de seca indica que o número e a intensidade média dos eventos são maiores a níveis mensal e trimestral, enquanto os eventos são mais longos e severos a níveis semestral e anual. Outrossim, os dados apontam que várias regiões foram atingidas por eventos de seca severos nos últimos anos, e a tendência é de que esses eventos sejam mais frequentes e relevantes em grande parte do país. Os resultados assinalam que o Nordeste é a região com o maior nível de exposição à ação das secas meteorológicas, especialmente a nível trimestral e semestral. Os resultados das análises de clusters hierárquicas revelam que há alta variabilidade na regionalização relativa ao nível de exposição à ação das secas, mas o padrão das regiões Norte e Sul diferem das outras regiões. Por fim, a relação entre os valores NIFT e as características de cada região sugere que áreas que têm elevada variabilidade de precipitação apresentam níveis de exposição mais altos, enquanto regiões mais elevadas e chuvosas são as menos expostas. Conclui-se, por fim, que o NIFT se mostrou uma ferramenta poderosa para auxiliar o processo de monitoramento das secas meteorológicas e espera-se que seu uso seja difundido para auxiliar os tomadores de decisões em várias regiões do planeta.Universidade Federal da ParaíbaBrasilEngenharia Civil e AmbientalPrograma de Pós-Graduação em Engenharia Civil e AmbientalUFPBSantos, Celso Augusto Guimarãeshttp://lattes.cnpq.br/4223859537570442Brasil Neto, Reginaldo Moura2024-04-16T17:41:14Z2023-07-312024-04-16T17:41:14Z2023-04-20info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesishttps://repositorio.ufpb.br/jspui/handle/123456789/30011porAttribution-NoDerivs 3.0 Brazilhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/3.0/br/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da UFPBinstname:Universidade Federal da Paraíba (UFPB)instacron:UFPB2024-04-17T06:08:30Zoai:repositorio.ufpb.br:123456789/30011Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertaçõeshttps://repositorio.ufpb.br/PUBhttp://tede.biblioteca.ufpb.br:8080/oai/requestdiretoria@ufpb.br|| diretoria@ufpb.bropendoar:2024-04-17T06:08:30Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da UFPB - Universidade Federal da Paraíba (UFPB)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Índice de exposição à ação das secas meteorológicas: NIFT (Number/Intensity/Frequency/Trend) Index |
title |
Índice de exposição à ação das secas meteorológicas: NIFT (Number/Intensity/Frequency/Trend) Index |
spellingShingle |
Índice de exposição à ação das secas meteorológicas: NIFT (Number/Intensity/Frequency/Trend) Index Brasil Neto, Reginaldo Moura Secas - Índices Secas - Monitoramento Índices de exposição – Regiões - Brasil NIFT SPI Droughts - Indices Droughts - Monitoring Exposure indices – Regions - Brazil CNPQ::ENGENHARIAS::ENGENHARIA CIVIL |
title_short |
Índice de exposição à ação das secas meteorológicas: NIFT (Number/Intensity/Frequency/Trend) Index |
title_full |
Índice de exposição à ação das secas meteorológicas: NIFT (Number/Intensity/Frequency/Trend) Index |
title_fullStr |
Índice de exposição à ação das secas meteorológicas: NIFT (Number/Intensity/Frequency/Trend) Index |
title_full_unstemmed |
Índice de exposição à ação das secas meteorológicas: NIFT (Number/Intensity/Frequency/Trend) Index |
title_sort |
Índice de exposição à ação das secas meteorológicas: NIFT (Number/Intensity/Frequency/Trend) Index |
author |
Brasil Neto, Reginaldo Moura |
author_facet |
Brasil Neto, Reginaldo Moura |
author_role |
author |
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
Santos, Celso Augusto Guimarães http://lattes.cnpq.br/4223859537570442 |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Brasil Neto, Reginaldo Moura |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Secas - Índices Secas - Monitoramento Índices de exposição – Regiões - Brasil NIFT SPI Droughts - Indices Droughts - Monitoring Exposure indices – Regions - Brazil CNPQ::ENGENHARIAS::ENGENHARIA CIVIL |
topic |
Secas - Índices Secas - Monitoramento Índices de exposição – Regiões - Brasil NIFT SPI Droughts - Indices Droughts - Monitoring Exposure indices – Regions - Brazil CNPQ::ENGENHARIAS::ENGENHARIA CIVIL |
description |
Drought is a natural phenomenon, originated from the absence of precipitation over a certain period, capable of causing damage to different sectors of society. Thus, monitoring the spatiotemporal behavior and the level of exposure to the action of this phenomenon is a task of extreme importance for water resource management. In this sense, the objective of this work is to develop an index to quantify the level of exposure to the action of meteorological droughts: the NIFT (Number/Intensity/Frequency/Trend) Index. For its creation, ten parameters were used, which include information related to the quantity, intensity, frequency, and trends of droughts (behavior, duration, and severity) computed based on the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Three thousand and ninety precipitation series from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) distributed throughout Brazil over 50 years (1970–2019) were used, and the analyses were carried out at two spatial scales (grid and regional) and four temporal scales (monthly, quarterly, half-yearly and annual). Hierarchical cluster analysis procedures were applied to identify zones with similar behaviors, and the relationship between the level of exposure and the physical characteristics of each region was investigated using the Fisher test. The results show high variability in the spatiotemporal behavior of precipitation, such that the Northern region is the rainiest in Brazil, while the Central-West, Southeast, and Northeast regions are less rainy. Moreover, the characterization of drought events indicates that the number and average intensity of events are higher at the monthly and quarterly levels, while events are longer and more severe at the half-yearly and annual levels. Additionally, the data indicate that several regions have been affected by severe drought events in recent years, and the trend is for these events to be more frequent and significant in much of the country. The results indicate that the Northeast is the region with the highest level of exposure to the action of meteorological droughts, especially at the quarterly and half-yearly levels. The results of the hierarchical cluster analysis reveal high variability in the regionalization relative to the level of exposure to the action of droughts, but the pattern of the Northern and Southern regions differs from the other regions. Finally, the relationship between the NIFT values and the characteristics of each region suggests that areas with high precipitation variability have higher levels of exposure, while higher and rainier regions are less exposed. In conclusion, the NIFT has proven to be a powerful tool to assist in the monitoring process of meteorological droughts, and it is expected that its use will be disseminated to support decision-makers in various regions of the planet. |
publishDate |
2023 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2023-07-31 2023-04-20 2024-04-16T17:41:14Z 2024-04-16T17:41:14Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesis |
format |
doctoralThesis |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://repositorio.ufpb.br/jspui/handle/123456789/30011 |
url |
https://repositorio.ufpb.br/jspui/handle/123456789/30011 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
por |
language |
por |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
Attribution-NoDerivs 3.0 Brazil http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/3.0/br/ info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
Attribution-NoDerivs 3.0 Brazil http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/3.0/br/ |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade Federal da Paraíba Brasil Engenharia Civil e Ambiental Programa de Pós-Graduação em Engenharia Civil e Ambiental UFPB |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade Federal da Paraíba Brasil Engenharia Civil e Ambiental Programa de Pós-Graduação em Engenharia Civil e Ambiental UFPB |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da UFPB instname:Universidade Federal da Paraíba (UFPB) instacron:UFPB |
instname_str |
Universidade Federal da Paraíba (UFPB) |
instacron_str |
UFPB |
institution |
UFPB |
reponame_str |
Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da UFPB |
collection |
Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da UFPB |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da UFPB - Universidade Federal da Paraíba (UFPB) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
diretoria@ufpb.br|| diretoria@ufpb.br |
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1801843026028396544 |