Análise harmônica dos totais de chuvas mensais de regiões homogêneas do Estado do Rio Grande do Sul

• Autor(a) principal: Cardoso, Daniel Souza
• Data de Publicação: 2010
• Tipo de documento: Dissertação
• Idioma: por
• Título da fonte: Repositório Institucional da UFPel - Guaiaca
• Texto Completo: http://repositorio.ufpel.edu.br/handle/ri/2199
• topic: Climatologia; Precipitação pluvial; Normalidade; Homogeneidade de variâncias; Estacionariedade; Análise harmônica; Previsão; Climatology; Rainfall; Normality; Homogeneity of variances; Stationarity; Harmonic analysis; Forecast; CNPQ::CIENCIAS EXATAS E DA TERRA::GEOCIENCIAS::METEOROLOGIA

Whereas the State of Rio Grande do Sul (RS), have an economy directly dependent on agriculture and livestock sectors, which in different studies are reported as dependent on the variability of certain climatological elements, and the RS element water is regarded as fundamental. We conducted a study of the monthly total rainfall, to long 60 years (1948/2007), collected from 31 meteorological stations (EMs) and distributed geographically in the state. In the interest of contributing to the local society to predict possible shortages, and / or development of public policies for the use of water resources in urban and rural areas. In order to obtain a model that can provide an approximation of the behavior of the average rainfall for each of the six homogeneous regions, as defined in the literature (Marques, 2005), held has an harmonic analysis of the data previously adjusted to 30-day months. Before the analisys, the properties were checked for normality, homogeneity of variance and stationarity. The data tested for normality and homogeneity of variances, have not passed satisfactory in these tests and, hence, there was a transformation of data, generating new data sets that met the conditions of homogeneity of variance and normality. The relative increase in the trend, to long 60 years, ranged from 2,7 to 13,3% in the six homogeneous regions. Through harmonic analysis was obtained models that adequately represent the behavior of the average rainfall for the six homogeneous regions of RS, consisting of 3 or 4 sine waves, with one representation from 81 to 95% of the variability of the data. It was possible to found that some harmonics stood out, by have higher representation of the variability of the observed data, and the harmonic half stood out, in 50% of the models, and the harmonics quarterly and annual stood out, in 33,33% and 16,66% of, respectively. The models were tested to forecast, within the interval of 2003/2007, evolving in time according to the trend of time series of each region, being validated in residual analysis, by of residuals autocorrelation . Showing up as appropriate for forecast of future values.