AN ANALYSIS OF THE MACROECONOMIC IMPACTS ON THE GDP OF THE BRAZILIAN SOCIAL POLICY FROM 2004 TO 2014: AN INTERPRETATION BASED ON KEYNES
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2022 |
Outros Autores: | , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | por |
Título da fonte: | Análise Econômica (Online) |
Texto Completo: | https://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/article/view/90652 |
Resumo: | In The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money (1936), Keynes identified two main problems of a monetary economy of production: i) the difficulty of achieving full employment according to the classical conception of his time, and ii) the extreme inequality of income and wealth distribution. Throughout the 1930s, he developed economic policy proposals to be carried out with state support in order to generate full employment, produce an improvement in income distribution patterns, and attenuate economic cycles. In light of this theoretical perspective, this paper aimsto analyze the macroeconomic impacts on GDP of two social programs in force in Brazil in the period from 2004 to 2014, namely: the Benefício de Prestação Continuada (BPC) and the Programa Bolsa Família (PBF). To do so, we used the Vector Autoregressive Time Series (VAR) methodology. From the analysis of impulse response functions, the main results showed that the PBF positively impacted GDP, however, the BPC showedno statistical significance in the impulse response functions, and little relevance in the decomposition of variance, thus presenting a less prominent result than the PBF. |
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AN ANALYSIS OF THE MACROECONOMIC IMPACTS ON THE GDP OF THE BRAZILIAN SOCIAL POLICY FROM 2004 TO 2014: AN INTERPRETATION BASED ON KEYNESUMA ANÁLISE DOS IMPACTOS MACROECONÔMICOS SOBRE O PIB DA POLÍTICA SOCIAL NO BRASIL NO PERÍODO DE 2004 A 2014: UMA INTERPRETAÇÃO A PARTIR DO PENSAMENTO DE KEYNESIn The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money (1936), Keynes identified two main problems of a monetary economy of production: i) the difficulty of achieving full employment according to the classical conception of his time, and ii) the extreme inequality of income and wealth distribution. Throughout the 1930s, he developed economic policy proposals to be carried out with state support in order to generate full employment, produce an improvement in income distribution patterns, and attenuate economic cycles. In light of this theoretical perspective, this paper aimsto analyze the macroeconomic impacts on GDP of two social programs in force in Brazil in the period from 2004 to 2014, namely: the Benefício de Prestação Continuada (BPC) and the Programa Bolsa Família (PBF). To do so, we used the Vector Autoregressive Time Series (VAR) methodology. From the analysis of impulse response functions, the main results showed that the PBF positively impacted GDP, however, the BPC showedno statistical significance in the impulse response functions, and little relevance in the decomposition of variance, thus presenting a less prominent result than the PBF.Na Teoria Geral do Emprego, do Juro e da Moeda (1936), Keynes identificou dois principais problemas de uma economia monetária de produção: a dificuldade de alcançar o pleno emprego segundo a concepção clássica de sua época e a extremadesigualdade de distribuição da renda e da riqueza. Ao longo dos anos 1930, ele desenvolveu propostas de política econômica a serem realizadas com o apoio do Estado, a fim de gerar o pleno emprego, produzir uma melhoria nos padrões de distribuição de renda e atenuar os ciclos econômicos. À luz dessa perspectiva teórica, este artigo visa analisar os impactos macroeconômicos sobre o PIB de dois programas sociais vigentes no Brasil no período de 2004 a 2014: o Benefício de Prestação Continuada (BPC) e o Programa Bolsa Família (PBF). Para tanto, utiliza-se a metodologia de séries temporais de vetor autorregressivo. A partir da análise das funções impulso-resposta, os principais resultados mostram que o PBF impacta positivamente o PIB, porém o BPC não apresenta significância estatística nas funções impulso-resposta, além de pouca relevância na decomposição da variância, apresentando, assim, resultado menos saliente que o PBF. UFRGS2022-03-31info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttps://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/article/view/9065210.22456/2176-5456.90652Análise Econômica; Vol. 40 No. 81 (2022): Março/2022Análise Econômica; v. 40 n. 81 (2022): Março/20222176-54560102-9924reponame:Análise Econômica (Online)instname:Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS)instacron:UFRGSporhttps://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/article/view/90652/84564https://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/article/view/90652/87166Copyright (c) 2022 Análise Econômicahttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessSalles, Alexandre Ottoni TeatiniTerra, Fábio Henrique BittesCoimbra, Reurison dos Santos2022-12-12T20:38:16Zoai:seer.ufrgs.br:article/90652Revistahttps://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomicaPUBhttps://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/oai||rae@ufrgs.br2176-54560102-9924opendoar:2022-12-12T20:38:16Análise Econômica (Online) - Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
AN ANALYSIS OF THE MACROECONOMIC IMPACTS ON THE GDP OF THE BRAZILIAN SOCIAL POLICY FROM 2004 TO 2014: AN INTERPRETATION BASED ON KEYNES UMA ANÁLISE DOS IMPACTOS MACROECONÔMICOS SOBRE O PIB DA POLÍTICA SOCIAL NO BRASIL NO PERÍODO DE 2004 A 2014: UMA INTERPRETAÇÃO A PARTIR DO PENSAMENTO DE KEYNES |
title |
AN ANALYSIS OF THE MACROECONOMIC IMPACTS ON THE GDP OF THE BRAZILIAN SOCIAL POLICY FROM 2004 TO 2014: AN INTERPRETATION BASED ON KEYNES |
spellingShingle |
AN ANALYSIS OF THE MACROECONOMIC IMPACTS ON THE GDP OF THE BRAZILIAN SOCIAL POLICY FROM 2004 TO 2014: AN INTERPRETATION BASED ON KEYNES Salles, Alexandre Ottoni Teatini |
title_short |
AN ANALYSIS OF THE MACROECONOMIC IMPACTS ON THE GDP OF THE BRAZILIAN SOCIAL POLICY FROM 2004 TO 2014: AN INTERPRETATION BASED ON KEYNES |
title_full |
AN ANALYSIS OF THE MACROECONOMIC IMPACTS ON THE GDP OF THE BRAZILIAN SOCIAL POLICY FROM 2004 TO 2014: AN INTERPRETATION BASED ON KEYNES |
title_fullStr |
AN ANALYSIS OF THE MACROECONOMIC IMPACTS ON THE GDP OF THE BRAZILIAN SOCIAL POLICY FROM 2004 TO 2014: AN INTERPRETATION BASED ON KEYNES |
title_full_unstemmed |
AN ANALYSIS OF THE MACROECONOMIC IMPACTS ON THE GDP OF THE BRAZILIAN SOCIAL POLICY FROM 2004 TO 2014: AN INTERPRETATION BASED ON KEYNES |
title_sort |
AN ANALYSIS OF THE MACROECONOMIC IMPACTS ON THE GDP OF THE BRAZILIAN SOCIAL POLICY FROM 2004 TO 2014: AN INTERPRETATION BASED ON KEYNES |
author |
Salles, Alexandre Ottoni Teatini |
author_facet |
Salles, Alexandre Ottoni Teatini Terra, Fábio Henrique Bittes Coimbra, Reurison dos Santos |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Terra, Fábio Henrique Bittes Coimbra, Reurison dos Santos |
author2_role |
author author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Salles, Alexandre Ottoni Teatini Terra, Fábio Henrique Bittes Coimbra, Reurison dos Santos |
description |
In The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money (1936), Keynes identified two main problems of a monetary economy of production: i) the difficulty of achieving full employment according to the classical conception of his time, and ii) the extreme inequality of income and wealth distribution. Throughout the 1930s, he developed economic policy proposals to be carried out with state support in order to generate full employment, produce an improvement in income distribution patterns, and attenuate economic cycles. In light of this theoretical perspective, this paper aimsto analyze the macroeconomic impacts on GDP of two social programs in force in Brazil in the period from 2004 to 2014, namely: the Benefício de Prestação Continuada (BPC) and the Programa Bolsa Família (PBF). To do so, we used the Vector Autoregressive Time Series (VAR) methodology. From the analysis of impulse response functions, the main results showed that the PBF positively impacted GDP, however, the BPC showedno statistical significance in the impulse response functions, and little relevance in the decomposition of variance, thus presenting a less prominent result than the PBF. |
publishDate |
2022 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2022-03-31 |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/article/view/90652 10.22456/2176-5456.90652 |
url |
https://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/article/view/90652 |
identifier_str_mv |
10.22456/2176-5456.90652 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
por |
language |
por |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
https://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/article/view/90652/84564 https://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/article/view/90652/87166 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2022 Análise Econômica http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2022 Análise Econômica http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
UFRGS |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
UFRGS |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Análise Econômica; Vol. 40 No. 81 (2022): Março/2022 Análise Econômica; v. 40 n. 81 (2022): Março/2022 2176-5456 0102-9924 reponame:Análise Econômica (Online) instname:Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS) instacron:UFRGS |
instname_str |
Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS) |
instacron_str |
UFRGS |
institution |
UFRGS |
reponame_str |
Análise Econômica (Online) |
collection |
Análise Econômica (Online) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Análise Econômica (Online) - Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
||rae@ufrgs.br |
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1799766268438380544 |