Adaptation of the Fórmula de Monte Alegre for the danger prediction of forest fires in the central region of São Paulo state
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Data de Publicação: | 2021 |
Outros Autores: | , , , , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Ciência Florestal (Online) |
Texto Completo: | https://periodicos.ufsm.br/cienciaflorestal/article/view/52851 |
Resumo: | Considering that the formulation of fire danger index helps in the planning of prevention and combat activities, revealing, in advance, the probability of occurrence and spread of forest fires. This work aimed to adjust and to validate the Fórmula de Monte Alegre for areas of eucalypt cultivation in the state of São Paulo. Data on relative humidity, rainfall and records of forest fires from 10/11/2003 to 4/29/2016 were used. For the analysis, the data set was divided into two parts, with the observations between years 2003 and 2013 (75%) being used to adjust FMA, while the data referring to the years 2014 to 2016 (25%) were used to validate the new classification generated according to the establishment of the new threshold values of distinction among the fire danger classes. The results showed that the establishment of new thresholds for the definition of the danger classes provided improvements in the efficiency of the Fórmula de Monte Alegre in predicting the occurrence of fires in the study region. |
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Adaptation of the Fórmula de Monte Alegre for the danger prediction of forest fires in the central region of São Paulo stateAdaptação da Fórmula de Monte Alegre para previsão do perigo de incêndios florestais na região central do estado de São PauloForest weatherHazard indexForest protectionMeteorologia florestalÍndice de perigoProteção florestalConsidering that the formulation of fire danger index helps in the planning of prevention and combat activities, revealing, in advance, the probability of occurrence and spread of forest fires. This work aimed to adjust and to validate the Fórmula de Monte Alegre for areas of eucalypt cultivation in the state of São Paulo. Data on relative humidity, rainfall and records of forest fires from 10/11/2003 to 4/29/2016 were used. For the analysis, the data set was divided into two parts, with the observations between years 2003 and 2013 (75%) being used to adjust FMA, while the data referring to the years 2014 to 2016 (25%) were used to validate the new classification generated according to the establishment of the new threshold values of distinction among the fire danger classes. The results showed that the establishment of new thresholds for the definition of the danger classes provided improvements in the efficiency of the Fórmula de Monte Alegre in predicting the occurrence of fires in the study region.Considerando que a formulação de índices de perigo de incêndios auxilia no planejamento das atividades de prevenção e combate, refletindo de forma antecipada a probabilidade de ocorrência e de propagação dos incêndios florestais, o presente trabalho teve por objetivo realizar o ajuste e validação da Fórmula de Monte Alegre para áreas de cultivo de eucalipto no Estado de São Paulo. Foram utilizados dados de umidade relativa do ar, precipitação pluviométrica e registros de ocorrência de incêndios florestais no período de 11/10/2003 a 29/04/2016. Para a análise, o conjunto de dados foi dividido em duas partes, sendo que as observações entre os anos de 2003 e 2013 (75%) foram utilizadas para o ajuste da FMA, enquanto os dados referentes aos anos de 2014 a 2016 (25%) foram utilizados para validar a nova classificação gerada conforme o estabelecimento dos novos valores limiares de distinção entre a classes de perigo de incêndios. Os resultados demonstraram que o estabelecimento de novos limiares para as definições das classes de perigo proporcionou melhorias na eficiência da Fórmula de Monte Alegre em prever a ocorrência de incêndios na região de estudo.Universidade Federal de Santa Maria2021-11-17info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdftext/htmltext/xmlhttps://periodicos.ufsm.br/cienciaflorestal/article/view/5285110.5902/1980509852851Ciência Florestal; Vol. 31 No. 4 (2021); 1867-1884Ciência Florestal; v. 31 n. 4 (2021); 1867-18841980-50980103-9954reponame:Ciência Florestal (Online)instname:Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM)instacron:UFSMenghttps://periodicos.ufsm.br/cienciaflorestal/article/view/52851/pdfhttps://periodicos.ufsm.br/cienciaflorestal/article/view/52851/49133https://periodicos.ufsm.br/cienciaflorestal/article/view/52851/52468Copyright (c) 2021 Ciência Florestalhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessSantos, João Francisco Labres dosKovalsyki, BrunaFerreira, Tiago de SouzaPajewski, FrancianeBatista, Antonio CarlosTetto, Alexandre FrançaSoares, Ronaldo Viana2023-04-20T18:09:56Zoai:ojs.pkp.sfu.ca:article/52851Revistahttp://www.ufsm.br/cienciaflorestal/ONGhttps://old.scielo.br/oai/scielo-oai.php||cienciaflorestal@ufsm.br|| cienciaflorestal@gmail.com|| cf@smail.ufsm.br1980-50980103-9954opendoar:2023-04-20T18:09:56Ciência Florestal (Online) - Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Adaptation of the Fórmula de Monte Alegre for the danger prediction of forest fires in the central region of São Paulo state Adaptação da Fórmula de Monte Alegre para previsão do perigo de incêndios florestais na região central do estado de São Paulo |
title |
Adaptation of the Fórmula de Monte Alegre for the danger prediction of forest fires in the central region of São Paulo state |
spellingShingle |
Adaptation of the Fórmula de Monte Alegre for the danger prediction of forest fires in the central region of São Paulo state Santos, João Francisco Labres dos Forest weather Hazard index Forest protection Meteorologia florestal Índice de perigo Proteção florestal |
title_short |
Adaptation of the Fórmula de Monte Alegre for the danger prediction of forest fires in the central region of São Paulo state |
title_full |
Adaptation of the Fórmula de Monte Alegre for the danger prediction of forest fires in the central region of São Paulo state |
title_fullStr |
Adaptation of the Fórmula de Monte Alegre for the danger prediction of forest fires in the central region of São Paulo state |
title_full_unstemmed |
Adaptation of the Fórmula de Monte Alegre for the danger prediction of forest fires in the central region of São Paulo state |
title_sort |
Adaptation of the Fórmula de Monte Alegre for the danger prediction of forest fires in the central region of São Paulo state |
author |
Santos, João Francisco Labres dos |
author_facet |
Santos, João Francisco Labres dos Kovalsyki, Bruna Ferreira, Tiago de Souza Pajewski, Franciane Batista, Antonio Carlos Tetto, Alexandre França Soares, Ronaldo Viana |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Kovalsyki, Bruna Ferreira, Tiago de Souza Pajewski, Franciane Batista, Antonio Carlos Tetto, Alexandre França Soares, Ronaldo Viana |
author2_role |
author author author author author author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Santos, João Francisco Labres dos Kovalsyki, Bruna Ferreira, Tiago de Souza Pajewski, Franciane Batista, Antonio Carlos Tetto, Alexandre França Soares, Ronaldo Viana |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Forest weather Hazard index Forest protection Meteorologia florestal Índice de perigo Proteção florestal |
topic |
Forest weather Hazard index Forest protection Meteorologia florestal Índice de perigo Proteção florestal |
description |
Considering that the formulation of fire danger index helps in the planning of prevention and combat activities, revealing, in advance, the probability of occurrence and spread of forest fires. This work aimed to adjust and to validate the Fórmula de Monte Alegre for areas of eucalypt cultivation in the state of São Paulo. Data on relative humidity, rainfall and records of forest fires from 10/11/2003 to 4/29/2016 were used. For the analysis, the data set was divided into two parts, with the observations between years 2003 and 2013 (75%) being used to adjust FMA, while the data referring to the years 2014 to 2016 (25%) were used to validate the new classification generated according to the establishment of the new threshold values of distinction among the fire danger classes. The results showed that the establishment of new thresholds for the definition of the danger classes provided improvements in the efficiency of the Fórmula de Monte Alegre in predicting the occurrence of fires in the study region. |
publishDate |
2021 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2021-11-17 |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://periodicos.ufsm.br/cienciaflorestal/article/view/52851 10.5902/1980509852851 |
url |
https://periodicos.ufsm.br/cienciaflorestal/article/view/52851 |
identifier_str_mv |
10.5902/1980509852851 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
https://periodicos.ufsm.br/cienciaflorestal/article/view/52851/pdf https://periodicos.ufsm.br/cienciaflorestal/article/view/52851/49133 https://periodicos.ufsm.br/cienciaflorestal/article/view/52851/52468 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2021 Ciência Florestal http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2021 Ciência Florestal http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0 |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf text/html text/xml |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade Federal de Santa Maria |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade Federal de Santa Maria |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Ciência Florestal; Vol. 31 No. 4 (2021); 1867-1884 Ciência Florestal; v. 31 n. 4 (2021); 1867-1884 1980-5098 0103-9954 reponame:Ciência Florestal (Online) instname:Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM) instacron:UFSM |
instname_str |
Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM) |
instacron_str |
UFSM |
institution |
UFSM |
reponame_str |
Ciência Florestal (Online) |
collection |
Ciência Florestal (Online) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Ciência Florestal (Online) - Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
||cienciaflorestal@ufsm.br|| cienciaflorestal@gmail.com|| cf@smail.ufsm.br |
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1799944135777452032 |