Analysis of the maximum precipitation data in northwestern São Paulo by theory of extreme values
Autor(a) principal: | |
---|---|
Data de Publicação: | 2020 |
Outros Autores: | , , , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | por |
Título da fonte: | Research, Society and Development |
Texto Completo: | https://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/article/view/9396 |
Resumo: | Predicting the behavior of extreme phenomena becomes extremely important for the entire population, due to the consequences caused by global warming, which makes the study of Extreme Value Theory (TVE) increasingly essential in studies of environmental variables. Applied for the purpose of describing the behavior of rare events, it has been applied in meteorology to maximum rainfall, minimum temperatures, maximum winds, since such information is of great importance for urban, industrial, agronomic planning and mitigation public policies of impulse and development of cities and society. Considering the importance of knowing the possible maximum monthly rainfall, this study aims to estimate the probability of maximum expected monthly rainfall for different periods using a historical series of rainfall data from Ilha Solteira region, as well as to verify the level of rainfall. of data adjustment to the Generalized Extreme Values (GEV) model using the maximum likelihood method for estimating the model parameters and verification of the adjustment in all considered rainfall periods, respectively. Gumbel distribution was the most appropriate for this case study, except in the dry season of the region. |
id |
UNIFEI_2c8d8b620d46793baac7922ca005ac29 |
---|---|
oai_identifier_str |
oai:ojs.pkp.sfu.ca:article/9396 |
network_acronym_str |
UNIFEI |
network_name_str |
Research, Society and Development |
repository_id_str |
|
spelling |
Analysis of the maximum precipitation data in northwestern São Paulo by theory of extreme valuesAnálisis de datos de precipitación máxima en el noroeste de São Paulo utilizando la teoría de valores extremosAnálise dos dados de precipitação máxima no noroeste paulista pela teoria dos valores extremosModelos de previsãoPrecipitaçãoIlha SolteiraPrecipitationIlha SolteiraModelos de pronósticoPrecipitaciónIlha SolteiraPredicting the behavior of extreme phenomena becomes extremely important for the entire population, due to the consequences caused by global warming, which makes the study of Extreme Value Theory (TVE) increasingly essential in studies of environmental variables. Applied for the purpose of describing the behavior of rare events, it has been applied in meteorology to maximum rainfall, minimum temperatures, maximum winds, since such information is of great importance for urban, industrial, agronomic planning and mitigation public policies of impulse and development of cities and society. Considering the importance of knowing the possible maximum monthly rainfall, this study aims to estimate the probability of maximum expected monthly rainfall for different periods using a historical series of rainfall data from Ilha Solteira region, as well as to verify the level of rainfall. of data adjustment to the Generalized Extreme Values (GEV) model using the maximum likelihood method for estimating the model parameters and verification of the adjustment in all considered rainfall periods, respectively. Gumbel distribution was the most appropriate for this case study, except in the dry season of the region.La predicción del comportamiento de los fenómenos extremos adquiere una gran importancia para toda la población, debido a las consecuencias que provoca el calentamiento global, lo que hace que el estudio de la Teoría de los Valores Extremos (TVE) sea cada vez más imprescindible en los estudios de variables ambientales. Aplicado con el propósito de describir el comportamiento de eventos raros, se ha aplicado en meteorología a máxima precipitación, temperaturas mínimas, vientos máximos, dado que información de este tipo es de gran importancia para la planificación urbana, industrial, agronómica y las políticas públicas que mitigan impacto y desarrollo de las ciudades y la sociedad. Dada la importancia del conocimiento de la posible precipitación máxima mensual, este trabajo tiene como objetivo estimar la probabilidad de precipitación máxima mensual esperada para diferentes períodos utilizando una serie histórica de datos de precipitación de la región de Ilha Solteira, así como verificar el nivel de ajuste de datos al modelo de Valores Extremos Generalizados (GEV) utilizando el método de máxima verosimilitud para estimar los parámetros del modelo y verificar el ajuste en todos los períodos de lluvia considerados, respectivamente. La distribución de Gumbel fue la más adecuada para este estudio de caso, excepto en la estación seca en la región.A previsão do comportamento de fenômenos extremos torna-se de suma importância para toda população, devido às consequências causadas pelo aquecimento global, o que torna o estudo da Teoria de Valores Extremos (TVE) cada dia mais imprescindível em estudos de variáveis ambientais. Aplicada com a finalidade de descrever o comportamento de eventos raros, tem sido aplicada em meteorologia nas precipitações máximas, temperaturas mínimas, ventos máximos, haja vista que informações do tipo são de grande importância para o planejamento urbano, industrial, agronômico e políticas públicas mitigadoras de impacto e de desenvolvimento das cidades e da sociedade. Tendo em vista a importância do conhecimento das possíveis precipitações mensais máximas, este trabalho tem como objetivo estimar a probabilidade de precipitação pluvial mensal máxima esperada para diferentes períodos utilizando-se uma série histórica de dados pluviométricos da região de Ilha Solteira, bem como verificar o nível de ajuste dos dados ao modelo Generalized Extreme Values (GEV) utilizando o método de máxima verossimilhança para estimação dos parâmetros do modelo e verificação do ajuste em todos os períodos de chuva considerados, respectivamente. A distribuição de Gumbel foi a mais adequada para esse estudo de caso, exceto no período de estiagem da região.Research, Society and Development2020-10-29info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttps://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/article/view/939610.33448/rsd-v9i10.9396Research, Society and Development; Vol. 9 No. 10; e9709109396Research, Society and Development; Vol. 9 Núm. 10; e9709109396Research, Society and Development; v. 9 n. 10; e97091093962525-3409reponame:Research, Society and Developmentinstname:Universidade Federal de Itajubá (UNIFEI)instacron:UNIFEIporhttps://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/article/view/9396/8423Copyright (c) 2020 Vinicius Affonso; Glaucia Amorim Faria; Beatriz Garcia Lopes; Nayra Yumi Tsutsumoto; Arieli Daieny da Fonseca; Lucas Menezes Felizardohttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessAffonso, ViniciusFaria, Glaucia Amorim Lopes, Beatriz Garcia Tsutsumoto, Nayra YumiFonseca, Arieli Daieny da Felizardo, Lucas Menezes 2020-10-31T12:03:23Zoai:ojs.pkp.sfu.ca:article/9396Revistahttps://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/indexPUBhttps://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/oairsd.articles@gmail.com2525-34092525-3409opendoar:2024-01-17T09:31:41.343901Research, Society and Development - Universidade Federal de Itajubá (UNIFEI)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Analysis of the maximum precipitation data in northwestern São Paulo by theory of extreme values Análisis de datos de precipitación máxima en el noroeste de São Paulo utilizando la teoría de valores extremos Análise dos dados de precipitação máxima no noroeste paulista pela teoria dos valores extremos |
title |
Analysis of the maximum precipitation data in northwestern São Paulo by theory of extreme values |
spellingShingle |
Analysis of the maximum precipitation data in northwestern São Paulo by theory of extreme values Affonso, Vinicius Modelos de previsão Precipitação Ilha Solteira Precipitation Ilha Solteira Modelos de pronóstico Precipitación Ilha Solteira |
title_short |
Analysis of the maximum precipitation data in northwestern São Paulo by theory of extreme values |
title_full |
Analysis of the maximum precipitation data in northwestern São Paulo by theory of extreme values |
title_fullStr |
Analysis of the maximum precipitation data in northwestern São Paulo by theory of extreme values |
title_full_unstemmed |
Analysis of the maximum precipitation data in northwestern São Paulo by theory of extreme values |
title_sort |
Analysis of the maximum precipitation data in northwestern São Paulo by theory of extreme values |
author |
Affonso, Vinicius |
author_facet |
Affonso, Vinicius Faria, Glaucia Amorim Lopes, Beatriz Garcia Tsutsumoto, Nayra Yumi Fonseca, Arieli Daieny da Felizardo, Lucas Menezes |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Faria, Glaucia Amorim Lopes, Beatriz Garcia Tsutsumoto, Nayra Yumi Fonseca, Arieli Daieny da Felizardo, Lucas Menezes |
author2_role |
author author author author author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Affonso, Vinicius Faria, Glaucia Amorim Lopes, Beatriz Garcia Tsutsumoto, Nayra Yumi Fonseca, Arieli Daieny da Felizardo, Lucas Menezes |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Modelos de previsão Precipitação Ilha Solteira Precipitation Ilha Solteira Modelos de pronóstico Precipitación Ilha Solteira |
topic |
Modelos de previsão Precipitação Ilha Solteira Precipitation Ilha Solteira Modelos de pronóstico Precipitación Ilha Solteira |
description |
Predicting the behavior of extreme phenomena becomes extremely important for the entire population, due to the consequences caused by global warming, which makes the study of Extreme Value Theory (TVE) increasingly essential in studies of environmental variables. Applied for the purpose of describing the behavior of rare events, it has been applied in meteorology to maximum rainfall, minimum temperatures, maximum winds, since such information is of great importance for urban, industrial, agronomic planning and mitigation public policies of impulse and development of cities and society. Considering the importance of knowing the possible maximum monthly rainfall, this study aims to estimate the probability of maximum expected monthly rainfall for different periods using a historical series of rainfall data from Ilha Solteira region, as well as to verify the level of rainfall. of data adjustment to the Generalized Extreme Values (GEV) model using the maximum likelihood method for estimating the model parameters and verification of the adjustment in all considered rainfall periods, respectively. Gumbel distribution was the most appropriate for this case study, except in the dry season of the region. |
publishDate |
2020 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2020-10-29 |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/article/view/9396 10.33448/rsd-v9i10.9396 |
url |
https://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/article/view/9396 |
identifier_str_mv |
10.33448/rsd-v9i10.9396 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
por |
language |
por |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
https://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/article/view/9396/8423 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Research, Society and Development |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Research, Society and Development |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Research, Society and Development; Vol. 9 No. 10; e9709109396 Research, Society and Development; Vol. 9 Núm. 10; e9709109396 Research, Society and Development; v. 9 n. 10; e9709109396 2525-3409 reponame:Research, Society and Development instname:Universidade Federal de Itajubá (UNIFEI) instacron:UNIFEI |
instname_str |
Universidade Federal de Itajubá (UNIFEI) |
instacron_str |
UNIFEI |
institution |
UNIFEI |
reponame_str |
Research, Society and Development |
collection |
Research, Society and Development |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Research, Society and Development - Universidade Federal de Itajubá (UNIFEI) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
rsd.articles@gmail.com |
_version_ |
1797052741987598336 |