Interiorization of Covid-19: An analysis of the evolution of cases / 10 thousand inhabitants in municipalities in the Microregion of Garanhuns in the State of Pernambuco, using non-linear regression models
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2020 |
Outros Autores: | , , , , , , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | por |
Título da fonte: | Research, Society and Development |
Texto Completo: | https://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/article/view/6582 |
Resumo: | The internalization of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the state of Pernambuco has raised concerns among the population. Thus, it was analyzed the official data provided by the daily bulletins of the municipal health secretariats of the municipalities, in the period from 23/04/2020 to 06/25/2020, collected weekly and the objective was to adjust different non-linear models in the analysis of cases / 10 thousand inhabitants of COVID-19 in the Pernambuco municipalities of Lajedo, Bom Conselho and Garanhuns, in addition to checking the inflection point of the disease, the period that informs about the decrease in the evolution of cases. For the comparison between the models, the adjusted determination coefficient, mean absolute deviation and Akaike information criterion were used. The verification of the assumptions of the residues was carried out through the Shapiro-Wilk tests for normality, Durbin-Watson tests for independence and Breush-Pagan tests for homoscedasticity, the assumptions were met. The best adjustments were Von Bertalanffy for the municipalities of Garanhuns and Bom Conselho and Gompertz for the municipality of Lajedo, despite overestimating the number of cases in the asymptotic limit. In calculating the absolute growth rate (ACT) it was found that the inflection points of all models occurred within the period of 64 days after the start of the pandemic. However, it is not possible to make reliable predictions of when the numbers of confirmed cases will be minimized due to being in an initial stage of interiorization. However, these results can be important in controlling the spread, guiding the authorities and the population to preventive care. |
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Interiorization of Covid-19: An analysis of the evolution of cases / 10 thousand inhabitants in municipalities in the Microregion of Garanhuns in the State of Pernambuco, using non-linear regression modelsInteriorización de Covid-19: un análisis de la evolución de casos / 10 mil habitantes en municipios de la Microrregión de Garanhuns en el Estado de Pernambuco, utilizando modelos de regresión no linealInteriorização do Covid-19: Uma análise da evolução dos casos/10 mil habitantes em municípios da Microrregião de Garanhuns no Estado de Pernambuco, através de modelos de Regressão não linearVirusesForecastPropagationPopulation.VírusPrevisãoPropagaçãoPopulação.ViruspronósticopropagaciónpoblaciónThe internalization of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the state of Pernambuco has raised concerns among the population. Thus, it was analyzed the official data provided by the daily bulletins of the municipal health secretariats of the municipalities, in the period from 23/04/2020 to 06/25/2020, collected weekly and the objective was to adjust different non-linear models in the analysis of cases / 10 thousand inhabitants of COVID-19 in the Pernambuco municipalities of Lajedo, Bom Conselho and Garanhuns, in addition to checking the inflection point of the disease, the period that informs about the decrease in the evolution of cases. For the comparison between the models, the adjusted determination coefficient, mean absolute deviation and Akaike information criterion were used. The verification of the assumptions of the residues was carried out through the Shapiro-Wilk tests for normality, Durbin-Watson tests for independence and Breush-Pagan tests for homoscedasticity, the assumptions were met. The best adjustments were Von Bertalanffy for the municipalities of Garanhuns and Bom Conselho and Gompertz for the municipality of Lajedo, despite overestimating the number of cases in the asymptotic limit. In calculating the absolute growth rate (ACT) it was found that the inflection points of all models occurred within the period of 64 days after the start of the pandemic. However, it is not possible to make reliable predictions of when the numbers of confirmed cases will be minimized due to being in an initial stage of interiorization. However, these results can be important in controlling the spread, guiding the authorities and the population to preventive care.La internalización de casos confirmados de COVID-19 en el estado de Pernambuco ha generado preocupación entre la población. Así, se analizaron los datos oficiales proporcionados por los boletines diarios de las secretarías municipales de salud de los municipios, en el período del 23/04/2020 al 25/06/2020, recogidos semanalmente y el objetivo fue ajustar diferentes modelos no lineales en el análisis de casos. / 10 mil habitantes del COVID-19 en los municipios de Pernambuco de Lajedo, Bom Conselho y Garanhuns, además de verificar el punto de inflexión de la enfermedad, período que informa sobre la disminución en la evolución de los casos. Para la comparación entre los modelos se utilizó el coeficiente de determinación ajustado, la desviación media absoluta y el criterio de información de Akaike. La verificación de los supuestos de los residuos se realizó mediante las pruebas de normalidad de Shapiro-Wilk, pruebas de independencia de Durbin-Watson y pruebas de homocedasticidad de Breush-Pagan, se cumplieron los supuestos. Los mejores ajustes fueron Von Bertalanffy para los municipios de Garanhuns y Bom Conselho y Gompertz para el municipio de Lajedo, a pesar de sobrestimar el número de casos en el límite asintótico. Al calcular la tasa de crecimiento absoluto (TCA), se encontró que los puntos de inflexión de todos los modelos ocurrieron dentro del período de 64 días después del inicio de la pandemia. Sin embargo, no es posible hacer predicciones confiables de cuándo se minimizará el número de casos confirmados debido a que se encuentra en una etapa inicial de interiorización. Sin embargo, estos resultados pueden ser importantes para controlar la propagación, orientando a las autoridades y la población hacia la atención preventiva.A interiorização dos casos confirmados de COVID-19 no estado de Pernambuco trouxe preocupação a população. Sendo assim analisou-se os dados oficiais disponibilizados pelos boletins diários das secretarias municipais de saúde dos municípios, no período de 23/04/2020 a 25/06/2020, coletados semanalmente e objetivou-se ajustar diferentes modelos não lineares na análise de casos / 10 mil habitantes de COVID - 19 nos municípios pernambucanos de Lajedo, Bom Conselho e Garanhuns, além de verificar o ponto de inflexão da doença, o período que informa sobre a diminuição da evolução dos casos. Para comparação entre os modelos empregaram-se o coeficiente de determinação ajustado, desvio médio absoluto e critério de informação de Akaike. A verificação dos pressupostos dos resíduos foi realizada por meio dos testes de Shapiro-Wilk para a normalidade, de Durbin-Watson para a independência e o de Breush-Pagan para a homocedasticidade, os pressupostos foram atendidos. Os melhores ajustes foram o Von Bertalanffy para os municípios de Garanhuns e Bom Conselho e o Gompertz para o município de Lajedo, apesar de superestimarem o número de casos no limite assintótico. No cálculo da taxa de crescimento absoluto (TCA) verificou-se que os pontos de inflexões de todos os modelos ocorreram dentro do período de 64 dias após o início da pandemia. Todavia, não é possível realizar previsões seguras de quando os números de casos confirmados minimizarão por razão de estar-se em um estágio inicial da interiorização. No entanto, esses resultados podem ser importantes no controle da propagação, norteando as autoridades e a população aos cuidados de prevençãoResearch, Society and Development2020-08-30info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttps://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/article/view/658210.33448/rsd-v9i9.6582Research, Society and Development; Vol. 9 No. 9; e293996582Research, Society and Development; Vol. 9 Núm. 9; e293996582Research, Society and Development; v. 9 n. 9; e2939965822525-3409reponame:Research, Society and Developmentinstname:Universidade Federal de Itajubá (UNIFEI)instacron:UNIFEIporhttps://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/article/view/6582/6785Copyright (c) 2020 Lucas Silva do Amaral, André Luiz Pinto dos Santos, Marcela Portela Santos de Figueiredo, Denise Stéphanie de Almeida Ferreira, José Eduardo Silva, Henrique Correa Torres Santos, João Silva Rocha, Diego Alves Gomes, Guilherme Rocha Guilhermehttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessAmaral, Lucas Silva doSantos, André Luiz Pinto dosFigueiredo, Marcela Portela Santos deFerreira, Denise Stéphanie de AlmeidaSilva, José EduardoSantos, Henrique Correa Torres dosRocha, João SilvaGomes, Diego AlvesMoreira, Guilherme Rocha2020-09-18T01:42:11Zoai:ojs.pkp.sfu.ca:article/6582Revistahttps://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/indexPUBhttps://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/oairsd.articles@gmail.com2525-34092525-3409opendoar:2024-01-17T09:29:39.731498Research, Society and Development - Universidade Federal de Itajubá (UNIFEI)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Interiorization of Covid-19: An analysis of the evolution of cases / 10 thousand inhabitants in municipalities in the Microregion of Garanhuns in the State of Pernambuco, using non-linear regression models Interiorización de Covid-19: un análisis de la evolución de casos / 10 mil habitantes en municipios de la Microrregión de Garanhuns en el Estado de Pernambuco, utilizando modelos de regresión no lineal Interiorização do Covid-19: Uma análise da evolução dos casos/10 mil habitantes em municípios da Microrregião de Garanhuns no Estado de Pernambuco, através de modelos de Regressão não linear |
title |
Interiorization of Covid-19: An analysis of the evolution of cases / 10 thousand inhabitants in municipalities in the Microregion of Garanhuns in the State of Pernambuco, using non-linear regression models |
spellingShingle |
Interiorization of Covid-19: An analysis of the evolution of cases / 10 thousand inhabitants in municipalities in the Microregion of Garanhuns in the State of Pernambuco, using non-linear regression models Amaral, Lucas Silva do Viruses Forecast Propagation Population. Vírus Previsão Propagação População. Virus pronóstico propagación población |
title_short |
Interiorization of Covid-19: An analysis of the evolution of cases / 10 thousand inhabitants in municipalities in the Microregion of Garanhuns in the State of Pernambuco, using non-linear regression models |
title_full |
Interiorization of Covid-19: An analysis of the evolution of cases / 10 thousand inhabitants in municipalities in the Microregion of Garanhuns in the State of Pernambuco, using non-linear regression models |
title_fullStr |
Interiorization of Covid-19: An analysis of the evolution of cases / 10 thousand inhabitants in municipalities in the Microregion of Garanhuns in the State of Pernambuco, using non-linear regression models |
title_full_unstemmed |
Interiorization of Covid-19: An analysis of the evolution of cases / 10 thousand inhabitants in municipalities in the Microregion of Garanhuns in the State of Pernambuco, using non-linear regression models |
title_sort |
Interiorization of Covid-19: An analysis of the evolution of cases / 10 thousand inhabitants in municipalities in the Microregion of Garanhuns in the State of Pernambuco, using non-linear regression models |
author |
Amaral, Lucas Silva do |
author_facet |
Amaral, Lucas Silva do Santos, André Luiz Pinto dos Figueiredo, Marcela Portela Santos de Ferreira, Denise Stéphanie de Almeida Silva, José Eduardo Santos, Henrique Correa Torres dos Rocha, João Silva Gomes, Diego Alves Moreira, Guilherme Rocha |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Santos, André Luiz Pinto dos Figueiredo, Marcela Portela Santos de Ferreira, Denise Stéphanie de Almeida Silva, José Eduardo Santos, Henrique Correa Torres dos Rocha, João Silva Gomes, Diego Alves Moreira, Guilherme Rocha |
author2_role |
author author author author author author author author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Amaral, Lucas Silva do Santos, André Luiz Pinto dos Figueiredo, Marcela Portela Santos de Ferreira, Denise Stéphanie de Almeida Silva, José Eduardo Santos, Henrique Correa Torres dos Rocha, João Silva Gomes, Diego Alves Moreira, Guilherme Rocha |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Viruses Forecast Propagation Population. Vírus Previsão Propagação População. Virus pronóstico propagación población |
topic |
Viruses Forecast Propagation Population. Vírus Previsão Propagação População. Virus pronóstico propagación población |
description |
The internalization of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the state of Pernambuco has raised concerns among the population. Thus, it was analyzed the official data provided by the daily bulletins of the municipal health secretariats of the municipalities, in the period from 23/04/2020 to 06/25/2020, collected weekly and the objective was to adjust different non-linear models in the analysis of cases / 10 thousand inhabitants of COVID-19 in the Pernambuco municipalities of Lajedo, Bom Conselho and Garanhuns, in addition to checking the inflection point of the disease, the period that informs about the decrease in the evolution of cases. For the comparison between the models, the adjusted determination coefficient, mean absolute deviation and Akaike information criterion were used. The verification of the assumptions of the residues was carried out through the Shapiro-Wilk tests for normality, Durbin-Watson tests for independence and Breush-Pagan tests for homoscedasticity, the assumptions were met. The best adjustments were Von Bertalanffy for the municipalities of Garanhuns and Bom Conselho and Gompertz for the municipality of Lajedo, despite overestimating the number of cases in the asymptotic limit. In calculating the absolute growth rate (ACT) it was found that the inflection points of all models occurred within the period of 64 days after the start of the pandemic. However, it is not possible to make reliable predictions of when the numbers of confirmed cases will be minimized due to being in an initial stage of interiorization. However, these results can be important in controlling the spread, guiding the authorities and the population to preventive care. |
publishDate |
2020 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2020-08-30 |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/article/view/6582 10.33448/rsd-v9i9.6582 |
url |
https://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/article/view/6582 |
identifier_str_mv |
10.33448/rsd-v9i9.6582 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
por |
language |
por |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
https://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/article/view/6582/6785 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
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application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Research, Society and Development |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Research, Society and Development |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Research, Society and Development; Vol. 9 No. 9; e293996582 Research, Society and Development; Vol. 9 Núm. 9; e293996582 Research, Society and Development; v. 9 n. 9; e293996582 2525-3409 reponame:Research, Society and Development instname:Universidade Federal de Itajubá (UNIFEI) instacron:UNIFEI |
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Universidade Federal de Itajubá (UNIFEI) |
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UNIFEI |
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UNIFEI |
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Research, Society and Development |
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Research, Society and Development |
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Research, Society and Development - Universidade Federal de Itajubá (UNIFEI) |
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rsd.articles@gmail.com |
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1797052738415099904 |