BRAZILIAN INDUSTRIAL PROFILE AND THE DEINDUSTRIALIZATION HYPOTHESIS

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Coronel, Daniel Arruda
Data de Publicação: 2021
Outros Autores: Copetti, Leonardo Sangoi
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: por
Título da fonte: Estudos do CEPE
Texto Completo: https://online.unisc.br/seer/index.php/cepe/article/view/16119
Resumo: The present research purpose is to analyze the Brazilian industrial profile, aiming to answer the following question: is a deindustrialization process taking place in the Brazilian economy? In this sense, two Error Vector Correction (EVC) models were adjusted, with the following dependent variables: industrial physical production in the Brazilian manufacturing industry (high intensity, medium-high, medium-low, and low intensity) and the industrial physical production in the extractive industry. The independent variables were the effective real exchange rate; commodity price index; and coefficient of the degree of commercial openness. The results indicated a significant reduction in the participation of the manufacturing industry in the Brazilian GDP. Regarding exports of non-industrial products, there was a greater increase than products due to technological intensity. In contrast, the imports of non-industrial products presented a fall and an increase in products due to technological intensity. Considering the estimation of the EVC, the results indicated that the exchange rate devaluation stimulates exports, that the opening of trade was extremely harmful. Finally, can be concluded that there is a strong evidence of the Brazilian deindustrialization process.
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spelling BRAZILIAN INDUSTRIAL PROFILE AND THE DEINDUSTRIALIZATION HYPOTHESISPERFIL INDUSTRIAL BRASILEIRO E A HIPÓTESE DE DESINDUSTRIALIZAÇÃOIndústria de TransformaçãoTaxa de CâmbioVetor de Correção de Erros.The present research purpose is to analyze the Brazilian industrial profile, aiming to answer the following question: is a deindustrialization process taking place in the Brazilian economy? In this sense, two Error Vector Correction (EVC) models were adjusted, with the following dependent variables: industrial physical production in the Brazilian manufacturing industry (high intensity, medium-high, medium-low, and low intensity) and the industrial physical production in the extractive industry. The independent variables were the effective real exchange rate; commodity price index; and coefficient of the degree of commercial openness. The results indicated a significant reduction in the participation of the manufacturing industry in the Brazilian GDP. Regarding exports of non-industrial products, there was a greater increase than products due to technological intensity. In contrast, the imports of non-industrial products presented a fall and an increase in products due to technological intensity. Considering the estimation of the EVC, the results indicated that the exchange rate devaluation stimulates exports, that the opening of trade was extremely harmful. Finally, can be concluded that there is a strong evidence of the Brazilian deindustrialization process.Este trabalho tem como objetivo analisar o perfil industrial brasileiro, visando responder à seguinte questão: está ocorrendo um processo de desindustrialização na economia brasileira? Nesse sentido, foram ajustados dois modelos Vetorial de Correção de Erro (VEC), com as seguintes variáveis dependentes: produção física industrial da indústria de transformação (alta intensidade, média-alta, média-baixa e baixa intensidade) brasileira e produção física industrial da indústria extrativa. As variáveis independentes foram taxa de câmbio real efetiva; índice de preços das commodities; e coeficiente do grau de abertura comercial. Os resultados indicaram uma redução expressiva da participação da indústria de transformação no PIB brasileiro. Em relação às exportações dos produtos não industriais, verificou-se um maior aumento em relação aos produtos por intensidade tecnológica. Já sobre as importações dos produtos não industriais, constatou-se uma queda e um aumento dos produtos por intensidade tecnológica. Quanto à estimação do VEC, os resultados indicaram que a desvalorização cambial estimula as exportações e que a abertura comercial foi extremamente prejudicial. Por fim, conclui-se que há fortes evidências do processo de desindustrialização brasileira.Universidade de Santa Cruz do Sul2021-11-11info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttps://online.unisc.br/seer/index.php/cepe/article/view/16119Estudos do CEPE; n. 51 (2020); 71-891982-6729reponame:Estudos do CEPEinstname:Universidade de Santa Cruz do Sul (UNISC)instacron:UNISCporhttps://online.unisc.br/seer/index.php/cepe/article/view/16119/10069Copyright (c) 2021 Estudos do CEPEinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessCoronel, Daniel ArrudaCopetti, Leonardo Sangoi2021-11-11T14:12:56Zoai:ojs.online.unisc.br:article/16119Revistahttp://online.unisc.br/seer/index.php/cepePUBhttp://online.unisc.br/seer/index.php/cepe/oaianadapper@mx2.unisc.br||ralievi@unisc.br|| carolina_haas@hotmail.com1982-67291413-4128opendoar:2021-11-11T14:12:56Estudos do CEPE - Universidade de Santa Cruz do Sul (UNISC)false
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv BRAZILIAN INDUSTRIAL PROFILE AND THE DEINDUSTRIALIZATION HYPOTHESIS
PERFIL INDUSTRIAL BRASILEIRO E A HIPÓTESE DE DESINDUSTRIALIZAÇÃO
title BRAZILIAN INDUSTRIAL PROFILE AND THE DEINDUSTRIALIZATION HYPOTHESIS
spellingShingle BRAZILIAN INDUSTRIAL PROFILE AND THE DEINDUSTRIALIZATION HYPOTHESIS
Coronel, Daniel Arruda
Indústria de Transformação
Taxa de Câmbio
Vetor de Correção de Erros.
title_short BRAZILIAN INDUSTRIAL PROFILE AND THE DEINDUSTRIALIZATION HYPOTHESIS
title_full BRAZILIAN INDUSTRIAL PROFILE AND THE DEINDUSTRIALIZATION HYPOTHESIS
title_fullStr BRAZILIAN INDUSTRIAL PROFILE AND THE DEINDUSTRIALIZATION HYPOTHESIS
title_full_unstemmed BRAZILIAN INDUSTRIAL PROFILE AND THE DEINDUSTRIALIZATION HYPOTHESIS
title_sort BRAZILIAN INDUSTRIAL PROFILE AND THE DEINDUSTRIALIZATION HYPOTHESIS
author Coronel, Daniel Arruda
author_facet Coronel, Daniel Arruda
Copetti, Leonardo Sangoi
author_role author
author2 Copetti, Leonardo Sangoi
author2_role author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Coronel, Daniel Arruda
Copetti, Leonardo Sangoi
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Indústria de Transformação
Taxa de Câmbio
Vetor de Correção de Erros.
topic Indústria de Transformação
Taxa de Câmbio
Vetor de Correção de Erros.
description The present research purpose is to analyze the Brazilian industrial profile, aiming to answer the following question: is a deindustrialization process taking place in the Brazilian economy? In this sense, two Error Vector Correction (EVC) models were adjusted, with the following dependent variables: industrial physical production in the Brazilian manufacturing industry (high intensity, medium-high, medium-low, and low intensity) and the industrial physical production in the extractive industry. The independent variables were the effective real exchange rate; commodity price index; and coefficient of the degree of commercial openness. The results indicated a significant reduction in the participation of the manufacturing industry in the Brazilian GDP. Regarding exports of non-industrial products, there was a greater increase than products due to technological intensity. In contrast, the imports of non-industrial products presented a fall and an increase in products due to technological intensity. Considering the estimation of the EVC, the results indicated that the exchange rate devaluation stimulates exports, that the opening of trade was extremely harmful. Finally, can be concluded that there is a strong evidence of the Brazilian deindustrialization process.
publishDate 2021
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2021-11-11
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv https://online.unisc.br/seer/index.php/cepe/article/view/16119
url https://online.unisc.br/seer/index.php/cepe/article/view/16119
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv por
language por
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv https://online.unisc.br/seer/index.php/cepe/article/view/16119/10069
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv Copyright (c) 2021 Estudos do CEPE
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv Copyright (c) 2021 Estudos do CEPE
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Universidade de Santa Cruz do Sul
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Universidade de Santa Cruz do Sul
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Estudos do CEPE; n. 51 (2020); 71-89
1982-6729
reponame:Estudos do CEPE
instname:Universidade de Santa Cruz do Sul (UNISC)
instacron:UNISC
instname_str Universidade de Santa Cruz do Sul (UNISC)
instacron_str UNISC
institution UNISC
reponame_str Estudos do CEPE
collection Estudos do CEPE
repository.name.fl_str_mv Estudos do CEPE - Universidade de Santa Cruz do Sul (UNISC)
repository.mail.fl_str_mv anadapper@mx2.unisc.br||ralievi@unisc.br|| carolina_haas@hotmail.com
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