Projecting influenza vaccine effectiveness: A simulation study
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2020 |
Outros Autores: | , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Institucional da UNESP |
Texto Completo: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0241549 http://hdl.handle.net/11449/209641 |
Resumo: | The impact of influenza vaccination is largely measured by estimating vaccine effectiveness (VE), which vary in different seasons. Strain mutations and waning immunity present two key mechanisms affecting VE. We sought to quantify the relative effect of these mechanisms by projecting VE and the reduction of illness due to vaccination. We developed a stochastic age-structured agent-based simulation model of influenza transmission dynamics to encapsulate intraseason waning of immunity post-vaccination, and mutation-induced antigenic distance between circulating strains and vaccine strains. Parameterizing the model with published estimates, we projected the temporal and overall VE during an epidemic season, and estimated the reduction of infection for high (70%) and low (30%) vaccine efficacies to reflect the levels of vaccine-induced protection in randomized control trials. Both temporal and overall VE decreased as the attack rate increased, with lower median values for epidemics starting with strains that were antigenically more distant from vaccine strains. We observed a higher rate of temporal decline with considerably lower median values of the overall VE in the presence of intraseason waning of immunity compared with only the antigenic distance effect. The highest benefit of vaccination in preventing influenza infection was achieved at moderate attack rates in the range of 6%-15%. The results show that even when VE is relatively low in the population and almost negligible for older age groups (i.e., 50+ years), vaccination can still prevent significant illness in high-risk individuals; thereby reducing healthcare resource utilization and economic burden. Our study indicates that early vaccination remains an important strategy for alleviating the burden of seasonal influenza. Policy discussions on optimal timing of vaccination to reduce the effect of intraseason waning of immunity should be considered in the context of strain mutations within the epidemic course. |
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spelling |
Projecting influenza vaccine effectiveness: A simulation studyThe impact of influenza vaccination is largely measured by estimating vaccine effectiveness (VE), which vary in different seasons. Strain mutations and waning immunity present two key mechanisms affecting VE. We sought to quantify the relative effect of these mechanisms by projecting VE and the reduction of illness due to vaccination. We developed a stochastic age-structured agent-based simulation model of influenza transmission dynamics to encapsulate intraseason waning of immunity post-vaccination, and mutation-induced antigenic distance between circulating strains and vaccine strains. Parameterizing the model with published estimates, we projected the temporal and overall VE during an epidemic season, and estimated the reduction of infection for high (70%) and low (30%) vaccine efficacies to reflect the levels of vaccine-induced protection in randomized control trials. Both temporal and overall VE decreased as the attack rate increased, with lower median values for epidemics starting with strains that were antigenically more distant from vaccine strains. We observed a higher rate of temporal decline with considerably lower median values of the overall VE in the presence of intraseason waning of immunity compared with only the antigenic distance effect. The highest benefit of vaccination in preventing influenza infection was achieved at moderate attack rates in the range of 6%-15%. The results show that even when VE is relatively low in the population and almost negligible for older age groups (i.e., 50+ years), vaccination can still prevent significant illness in high-risk individuals; thereby reducing healthcare resource utilization and economic burden. Our study indicates that early vaccination remains an important strategy for alleviating the burden of seasonal influenza. Policy discussions on optimal timing of vaccination to reduce the effect of intraseason waning of immunity should be considered in the context of strain mutations within the epidemic course.Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC)Mathematics of Information Technology and Complex Systems (Mitacs)Canadian Foundation for InnovationFundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)Univ Estadual Campinas, Inst Math Stat & Sci Comp, Campinas, SP, BrazilYale Univ, Ctr Infect Dis Modeling & Anal, Sch Publ Hlth, New Haven, CT USASao Paulo State Univ, Inst Biosci, Dept Biostat, Botucatu, SP, BrazilYork Univ, Agent Based Modelling Lab, Toronto, ON, CanadaSao Paulo State Univ, Inst Biosci, Dept Biostat, Botucatu, SP, BrazilFAPESP: 18/24390-6FAPESP: 2018/24811-1Public Library ScienceUniversidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP)Yale UnivUniversidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp)York UnivVilches, Thomas N.Shoukat, AffanFerreira, Claudia Pio [UNESP]Moghadas, Seyed M.2021-06-25T12:24:45Z2021-06-25T12:24:45Z2020-11-03info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/article12http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0241549Plos One. San Francisco: Public Library Science, v. 15, n. 11, 12 p., 2020.1932-6203http://hdl.handle.net/11449/20964110.1371/journal.pone.0241549WOS:00058837670004820527496982046170000-0002-9404-6098Web of Sciencereponame:Repositório Institucional da UNESPinstname:Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP)instacron:UNESPengPlos Oneinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess2021-11-18T16:54:00Zoai:repositorio.unesp.br:11449/209641Repositório InstitucionalPUBhttp://repositorio.unesp.br/oai/requestopendoar:29462024-08-05T19:49:35.626905Repositório Institucional da UNESP - Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Projecting influenza vaccine effectiveness: A simulation study |
title |
Projecting influenza vaccine effectiveness: A simulation study |
spellingShingle |
Projecting influenza vaccine effectiveness: A simulation study Vilches, Thomas N. |
title_short |
Projecting influenza vaccine effectiveness: A simulation study |
title_full |
Projecting influenza vaccine effectiveness: A simulation study |
title_fullStr |
Projecting influenza vaccine effectiveness: A simulation study |
title_full_unstemmed |
Projecting influenza vaccine effectiveness: A simulation study |
title_sort |
Projecting influenza vaccine effectiveness: A simulation study |
author |
Vilches, Thomas N. |
author_facet |
Vilches, Thomas N. Shoukat, Affan Ferreira, Claudia Pio [UNESP] Moghadas, Seyed M. |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Shoukat, Affan Ferreira, Claudia Pio [UNESP] Moghadas, Seyed M. |
author2_role |
author author author |
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP) Yale Univ Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp) York Univ |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Vilches, Thomas N. Shoukat, Affan Ferreira, Claudia Pio [UNESP] Moghadas, Seyed M. |
description |
The impact of influenza vaccination is largely measured by estimating vaccine effectiveness (VE), which vary in different seasons. Strain mutations and waning immunity present two key mechanisms affecting VE. We sought to quantify the relative effect of these mechanisms by projecting VE and the reduction of illness due to vaccination. We developed a stochastic age-structured agent-based simulation model of influenza transmission dynamics to encapsulate intraseason waning of immunity post-vaccination, and mutation-induced antigenic distance between circulating strains and vaccine strains. Parameterizing the model with published estimates, we projected the temporal and overall VE during an epidemic season, and estimated the reduction of infection for high (70%) and low (30%) vaccine efficacies to reflect the levels of vaccine-induced protection in randomized control trials. Both temporal and overall VE decreased as the attack rate increased, with lower median values for epidemics starting with strains that were antigenically more distant from vaccine strains. We observed a higher rate of temporal decline with considerably lower median values of the overall VE in the presence of intraseason waning of immunity compared with only the antigenic distance effect. The highest benefit of vaccination in preventing influenza infection was achieved at moderate attack rates in the range of 6%-15%. The results show that even when VE is relatively low in the population and almost negligible for older age groups (i.e., 50+ years), vaccination can still prevent significant illness in high-risk individuals; thereby reducing healthcare resource utilization and economic burden. Our study indicates that early vaccination remains an important strategy for alleviating the burden of seasonal influenza. Policy discussions on optimal timing of vaccination to reduce the effect of intraseason waning of immunity should be considered in the context of strain mutations within the epidemic course. |
publishDate |
2020 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2020-11-03 2021-06-25T12:24:45Z 2021-06-25T12:24:45Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0241549 Plos One. San Francisco: Public Library Science, v. 15, n. 11, 12 p., 2020. 1932-6203 http://hdl.handle.net/11449/209641 10.1371/journal.pone.0241549 WOS:000588376700048 2052749698204617 0000-0002-9404-6098 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0241549 http://hdl.handle.net/11449/209641 |
identifier_str_mv |
Plos One. San Francisco: Public Library Science, v. 15, n. 11, 12 p., 2020. 1932-6203 10.1371/journal.pone.0241549 WOS:000588376700048 2052749698204617 0000-0002-9404-6098 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
Plos One |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
12 |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Public Library Science |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Public Library Science |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Web of Science reponame:Repositório Institucional da UNESP instname:Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP) instacron:UNESP |
instname_str |
Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP) |
instacron_str |
UNESP |
institution |
UNESP |
reponame_str |
Repositório Institucional da UNESP |
collection |
Repositório Institucional da UNESP |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Repositório Institucional da UNESP - Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
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_version_ |
1808129125415649280 |