Phenological Changes in the Southern Hemisphere
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2013 |
Outros Autores: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Institucional da UNESP |
Texto Completo: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0075514 http://hdl.handle.net/11449/76759 |
Resumo: | Current evidence of phenological responses to recent climate change is substantially biased towards northern hemisphere temperate regions. Given regional differences in climate change, shifts in phenology will not be uniform across the globe, and conclusions drawn from temperate systems in the northern hemisphere might not be applicable to other regions on the planet. We conduct the largest meta-analysis to date of phenological drivers and trends among southern hemisphere species, assessing 1208 long-term datasets from 89 studies on 347 species. Data were mostly from Australasia (Australia and New Zealand), South America and the Antarctic/subantarctic, and focused primarily on plants and birds. This meta-analysis shows an advance in the timing of spring events (with a strong Australian data bias), although substantial differences in trends were apparent among taxonomic groups and regions. When only statistically significant trends were considered, 82% of terrestrial datasets and 42% of marine datasets demonstrated an advance in phenology. Temperature was most frequently identified as the primary driver of phenological changes; however, in many studies it was the only climate variable considered. When precipitation was examined, it often played a key role but, in contrast with temperature, the direction of phenological shifts in response to precipitation variation was difficult to predict a priori. We discuss how phenological information can inform the adaptive capacity of species, their resilience, and constraints on autonomous adaptation. We also highlight serious weaknesses in past and current data collection and analyses at large regional scales (with very few studies in the tropics or from Africa) and dramatic taxonomic biases. If accurate predictions regarding the general effects of climate change on the biology of organisms are to be made, data collection policies focussing on targeting data-deficient regions and taxa need to be financially and logistically supported. © 2013 Chambers et al. |
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Phenological Changes in the Southern HemisphereCurrent evidence of phenological responses to recent climate change is substantially biased towards northern hemisphere temperate regions. Given regional differences in climate change, shifts in phenology will not be uniform across the globe, and conclusions drawn from temperate systems in the northern hemisphere might not be applicable to other regions on the planet. We conduct the largest meta-analysis to date of phenological drivers and trends among southern hemisphere species, assessing 1208 long-term datasets from 89 studies on 347 species. Data were mostly from Australasia (Australia and New Zealand), South America and the Antarctic/subantarctic, and focused primarily on plants and birds. This meta-analysis shows an advance in the timing of spring events (with a strong Australian data bias), although substantial differences in trends were apparent among taxonomic groups and regions. When only statistically significant trends were considered, 82% of terrestrial datasets and 42% of marine datasets demonstrated an advance in phenology. Temperature was most frequently identified as the primary driver of phenological changes; however, in many studies it was the only climate variable considered. When precipitation was examined, it often played a key role but, in contrast with temperature, the direction of phenological shifts in response to precipitation variation was difficult to predict a priori. We discuss how phenological information can inform the adaptive capacity of species, their resilience, and constraints on autonomous adaptation. We also highlight serious weaknesses in past and current data collection and analyses at large regional scales (with very few studies in the tropics or from Africa) and dramatic taxonomic biases. If accurate predictions regarding the general effects of climate change on the biology of organisms are to be made, data collection policies focussing on targeting data-deficient regions and taxa need to be financially and logistically supported. © 2013 Chambers et al.Macquarie UniversityNational Research FoundationCentre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Melbourne, VICKirstenbosch Research Centre South African National Biodiversity Institute, Cape TownCEBC, CNRS - UPR 1934, Villiers en BoisDepartment of Biological Sciences Macquarie University, Sydney, NSWDepartment of Environmental Affairs and Tourism, Cape TownCentre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis Department of Biosciences University of Oslo, OsloDepartment of Forest and Ecosystem Science University of Melbourne, Creswick, VICDepartment of Ecology Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, UppsalaLaboratorio de Fenologia, Departamento de Botânica Instituto de Biociências UNESP Universidade Estadual Paulista, São PauloClimate Adaptation Flagship CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Brisbane, QLDInternational Fund for Animal Welfare, Yarmouth Port, MALaboratory of Wildlife Comparative Pathology University of São Paulo, São PauloInstitute for Marine and Antarctic Studies University of Tasmania, Sandy Bay, TASJoint Nature Conservation Committee of the UK, StanleyAnimal Demography Unit University of Cape Town, RondeboschPercy FitzPatrick Institute of African Ornithology DST/NRF Centre of Excellence University of Cape Town, RondeboschLaboratorio de Fenologia, Departamento de Botânica Instituto de Biociências UNESP Universidade Estadual Paulista, São PauloCentre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchSouth African National Biodiversity InstituteCEBC, CNRS - UPR 1934Macquarie UniversityUniversity of OsloUniversity of MelbourneSwedish University of Agricultural SciencesUniversidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp)CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric ResearchInternational Fund for Animal WelfareUniversidade de São Paulo (USP)University of TasmaniaJoint Nature Conservation Committee of the UKUniversity of Cape TownChambers, Lynda E.Altwegg, ResBarbraud, ChristopheBarnard, PhoebeBeaumont, Linda J.Crawford, Robert J. M.Durant, Joel M.Hughes, LesleyKeatley, Marie R.Low, MattMorellato, Patricia C. [UNESP]Poloczanska, Elvira S.Ruoppolo, ValeriaVanstreels, Ralph E. T.Woehler, Eric J.Wolfaardt, Anton C.2014-05-27T11:30:49Z2014-05-27T11:30:49Z2013-10-01info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0075514PLoS ONE, v. 8, n. 10, 2013.1932-6203http://hdl.handle.net/11449/7675910.1371/journal.pone.0075514WOS:0003254271000192-s2.0-848850534372-s2.0-84885053437.pdfScopusreponame:Repositório Institucional da UNESPinstname:Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP)instacron:UNESPengPLOS ONE2.7661,164info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess2023-10-25T06:06:36Zoai:repositorio.unesp.br:11449/76759Repositório InstitucionalPUBhttp://repositorio.unesp.br/oai/requestopendoar:29462024-08-05T15:52:57.404257Repositório Institucional da UNESP - Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Phenological Changes in the Southern Hemisphere |
title |
Phenological Changes in the Southern Hemisphere |
spellingShingle |
Phenological Changes in the Southern Hemisphere Chambers, Lynda E. |
title_short |
Phenological Changes in the Southern Hemisphere |
title_full |
Phenological Changes in the Southern Hemisphere |
title_fullStr |
Phenological Changes in the Southern Hemisphere |
title_full_unstemmed |
Phenological Changes in the Southern Hemisphere |
title_sort |
Phenological Changes in the Southern Hemisphere |
author |
Chambers, Lynda E. |
author_facet |
Chambers, Lynda E. Altwegg, Res Barbraud, Christophe Barnard, Phoebe Beaumont, Linda J. Crawford, Robert J. M. Durant, Joel M. Hughes, Lesley Keatley, Marie R. Low, Matt Morellato, Patricia C. [UNESP] Poloczanska, Elvira S. Ruoppolo, Valeria Vanstreels, Ralph E. T. Woehler, Eric J. Wolfaardt, Anton C. |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Altwegg, Res Barbraud, Christophe Barnard, Phoebe Beaumont, Linda J. Crawford, Robert J. M. Durant, Joel M. Hughes, Lesley Keatley, Marie R. Low, Matt Morellato, Patricia C. [UNESP] Poloczanska, Elvira S. Ruoppolo, Valeria Vanstreels, Ralph E. T. Woehler, Eric J. Wolfaardt, Anton C. |
author2_role |
author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author |
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research South African National Biodiversity Institute CEBC, CNRS - UPR 1934 Macquarie University University of Oslo University of Melbourne Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp) CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research International Fund for Animal Welfare Universidade de São Paulo (USP) University of Tasmania Joint Nature Conservation Committee of the UK University of Cape Town |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Chambers, Lynda E. Altwegg, Res Barbraud, Christophe Barnard, Phoebe Beaumont, Linda J. Crawford, Robert J. M. Durant, Joel M. Hughes, Lesley Keatley, Marie R. Low, Matt Morellato, Patricia C. [UNESP] Poloczanska, Elvira S. Ruoppolo, Valeria Vanstreels, Ralph E. T. Woehler, Eric J. Wolfaardt, Anton C. |
description |
Current evidence of phenological responses to recent climate change is substantially biased towards northern hemisphere temperate regions. Given regional differences in climate change, shifts in phenology will not be uniform across the globe, and conclusions drawn from temperate systems in the northern hemisphere might not be applicable to other regions on the planet. We conduct the largest meta-analysis to date of phenological drivers and trends among southern hemisphere species, assessing 1208 long-term datasets from 89 studies on 347 species. Data were mostly from Australasia (Australia and New Zealand), South America and the Antarctic/subantarctic, and focused primarily on plants and birds. This meta-analysis shows an advance in the timing of spring events (with a strong Australian data bias), although substantial differences in trends were apparent among taxonomic groups and regions. When only statistically significant trends were considered, 82% of terrestrial datasets and 42% of marine datasets demonstrated an advance in phenology. Temperature was most frequently identified as the primary driver of phenological changes; however, in many studies it was the only climate variable considered. When precipitation was examined, it often played a key role but, in contrast with temperature, the direction of phenological shifts in response to precipitation variation was difficult to predict a priori. We discuss how phenological information can inform the adaptive capacity of species, their resilience, and constraints on autonomous adaptation. We also highlight serious weaknesses in past and current data collection and analyses at large regional scales (with very few studies in the tropics or from Africa) and dramatic taxonomic biases. If accurate predictions regarding the general effects of climate change on the biology of organisms are to be made, data collection policies focussing on targeting data-deficient regions and taxa need to be financially and logistically supported. © 2013 Chambers et al. |
publishDate |
2013 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2013-10-01 2014-05-27T11:30:49Z 2014-05-27T11:30:49Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0075514 PLoS ONE, v. 8, n. 10, 2013. 1932-6203 http://hdl.handle.net/11449/76759 10.1371/journal.pone.0075514 WOS:000325427100019 2-s2.0-84885053437 2-s2.0-84885053437.pdf |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0075514 http://hdl.handle.net/11449/76759 |
identifier_str_mv |
PLoS ONE, v. 8, n. 10, 2013. 1932-6203 10.1371/journal.pone.0075514 WOS:000325427100019 2-s2.0-84885053437 2-s2.0-84885053437.pdf |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
PLOS ONE 2.766 1,164 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
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application/pdf |
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Scopus reponame:Repositório Institucional da UNESP instname:Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP) instacron:UNESP |
instname_str |
Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP) |
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UNESP |
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UNESP |
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Repositório Institucional da UNESP |
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Repositório Institucional da UNESP |
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Repositório Institucional da UNESP - Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP) |
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1808128578159640576 |