Rentabilidade e Risco da Produção de Milho Safrinha Geneticamente Modificado e Convencional na Região de Guaíra/sp

• Autor(a) principal: Miguel, Fernando Bergantini
• Data de Publicação: 2014
• Outros Autores: Grizotto, Regina Kitagawa, Esperancini, Maura Seiko Tsutsui [UNESP]
• Tipo de documento: Artigo
• Idioma: por
• Título da fonte: Repositório Institucional da UNESP
• Texto Completo: http://dx.doi.org/10.17224/EnergAgric.2014v29n1p64-75; http://hdl.handle.net/11449/137348
• topic: Transgenic corn; Hybrid; Economic return; Risk analysis; Milho transgênico; Híbrido; Retorno econômico; Análise de risco

The objective of this study was to dimension the economic risks and returns on adopters of genetically modified (GM) maize in one of the major corn producing regions of São Paulo state. We performed analysis of variation of the quantities and prices of insecticides used, productivity gains, and variation in the price differentials between GM maize and conventional hybrids seeds, according to account to the maize prices oscillation during the period studied. The net benefits methodology was used, in other words, the economic gains minus the costs of GM technology under risk conditions were calculated. The net benefits was calculated as a function of four critical variables: 1) GM maize productivity; 2) costs of pest control; 3) maize price; 4) GM seeds cost. The probability distribution functions of these critical variables were estimated and included in the net benefit equation. Using the Monte Carlo simulation methodology, the following indicator sets were estimated: central tendency measurements, variability in net benefits (total benefits minus total costs), sensitivity analysis of the net benefits in relation to the critical variables, and finally, a map of the risk to GM technology adopters. These indicators allow one to design economic scenarios associated with their probability of occurring. The results showed probability of 85% to positive gains to the farmers who adopted the transgenic maize seed cultivation. The variable with the greatest impact on the farmers' income was the reduction in productivity loss, that means, as higher is the maize productivity, higher will be the net income. The average gain was US$ 137,41 (R$ 2.45/US$)per hectare with the adoption of transgenic maize seed when compared to conventional maize seed.