Temporal trend, distribution and spatial autocorrelation of leprosy in Brazil: ecological study, 2011 to 2021
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2022 |
Outros Autores: | , , , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Revista brasileira de epidemiologia (Online) |
Texto Completo: | http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S1415-790X2022000100434 |
Resumo: | ABSTRACT Objective: To characterize the temporal trend and spatial behavior of leprosy in Brazil, from 2011 to 2021. Methods: This is an ecological study, with data from the Notifiable Diseases Information System, obtained in June 2022. The annual detection rate of new leprosy cases per 100 thousand inhabitants was calculated. To estimate the trend of the 2011–2019 and 2011–2021 series, the polynomial regression model was used, testing first-, second-, and third-order polynomials. For spatiality, natural breaks were used and, later, the univariate global and local Moran’s indexes. A significance level of 5% was adopted and the analyses were performed using SPSS®, GeoDa®, and QGIS® software. Results: The findings indicated an upward trend in the incidence of leprosy in Brazilian regions and in 20 federative units between 2011 and 2019. However, there was a decrease in most of the country when considering the COVID-19 pandemic years. Spatiality showed that the highest detection rates throughout the period were observed in the North, Midwest, and Northeast regions, with high-risk clusters, and the lowest detection rates in the South and Southeast regions, with low-risk clusters. Conclusion: The leprosy detection rate showed an upward trend in Brazil between 2011 and 2019, with greater spatial concentration in the North, Northeast, and Midwest regions. Nevertheless, the study raises an alert for the programmatic sustainability of leprosy control in Brazil, considering the drop in the COVID-19 pandemic, presumably due to the influence of the reorganization of the development of initiatives and provision of services in face of COVID-19. |
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Temporal trend, distribution and spatial autocorrelation of leprosy in Brazil: ecological study, 2011 to 2021Ecological studiesLeprosySpatio-temporal analysisPublic healthABSTRACT Objective: To characterize the temporal trend and spatial behavior of leprosy in Brazil, from 2011 to 2021. Methods: This is an ecological study, with data from the Notifiable Diseases Information System, obtained in June 2022. The annual detection rate of new leprosy cases per 100 thousand inhabitants was calculated. To estimate the trend of the 2011–2019 and 2011–2021 series, the polynomial regression model was used, testing first-, second-, and third-order polynomials. For spatiality, natural breaks were used and, later, the univariate global and local Moran’s indexes. A significance level of 5% was adopted and the analyses were performed using SPSS®, GeoDa®, and QGIS® software. Results: The findings indicated an upward trend in the incidence of leprosy in Brazilian regions and in 20 federative units between 2011 and 2019. However, there was a decrease in most of the country when considering the COVID-19 pandemic years. Spatiality showed that the highest detection rates throughout the period were observed in the North, Midwest, and Northeast regions, with high-risk clusters, and the lowest detection rates in the South and Southeast regions, with low-risk clusters. Conclusion: The leprosy detection rate showed an upward trend in Brazil between 2011 and 2019, with greater spatial concentration in the North, Northeast, and Midwest regions. Nevertheless, the study raises an alert for the programmatic sustainability of leprosy control in Brazil, considering the drop in the COVID-19 pandemic, presumably due to the influence of the reorganization of the development of initiatives and provision of services in face of COVID-19.Associação Brasileira de Saúde Coletiva2022-01-01info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersiontext/htmlhttp://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S1415-790X2022000100434Revista Brasileira de Epidemiologia v.25 2022reponame:Revista brasileira de epidemiologia (Online)instname:Associação Brasileira de Saúde Coletiva (ABRASCO)instacron:ABRASCO10.1590/1980-549720220040info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessLima,Lucas Vinícius dePavinati,GabrielSilva,Isadora Gabriella PascholottoMoura,Débora Regina de OliveiraGil,Nelly Lopes de MoraesMagnabosco,Gabriela Tavareseng2022-12-08T00:00:00Zoai:scielo:S1415-790X2022000100434Revistahttp://www.scielo.br/rbepidhttps://old.scielo.br/oai/scielo-oai.php||revbrepi@usp.br1980-54971415-790Xopendoar:2022-12-08T00:00Revista brasileira de epidemiologia (Online) - Associação Brasileira de Saúde Coletiva (ABRASCO)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Temporal trend, distribution and spatial autocorrelation of leprosy in Brazil: ecological study, 2011 to 2021 |
title |
Temporal trend, distribution and spatial autocorrelation of leprosy in Brazil: ecological study, 2011 to 2021 |
spellingShingle |
Temporal trend, distribution and spatial autocorrelation of leprosy in Brazil: ecological study, 2011 to 2021 Lima,Lucas Vinícius de Ecological studies Leprosy Spatio-temporal analysis Public health |
title_short |
Temporal trend, distribution and spatial autocorrelation of leprosy in Brazil: ecological study, 2011 to 2021 |
title_full |
Temporal trend, distribution and spatial autocorrelation of leprosy in Brazil: ecological study, 2011 to 2021 |
title_fullStr |
Temporal trend, distribution and spatial autocorrelation of leprosy in Brazil: ecological study, 2011 to 2021 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Temporal trend, distribution and spatial autocorrelation of leprosy in Brazil: ecological study, 2011 to 2021 |
title_sort |
Temporal trend, distribution and spatial autocorrelation of leprosy in Brazil: ecological study, 2011 to 2021 |
author |
Lima,Lucas Vinícius de |
author_facet |
Lima,Lucas Vinícius de Pavinati,Gabriel Silva,Isadora Gabriella Pascholotto Moura,Débora Regina de Oliveira Gil,Nelly Lopes de Moraes Magnabosco,Gabriela Tavares |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Pavinati,Gabriel Silva,Isadora Gabriella Pascholotto Moura,Débora Regina de Oliveira Gil,Nelly Lopes de Moraes Magnabosco,Gabriela Tavares |
author2_role |
author author author author author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Lima,Lucas Vinícius de Pavinati,Gabriel Silva,Isadora Gabriella Pascholotto Moura,Débora Regina de Oliveira Gil,Nelly Lopes de Moraes Magnabosco,Gabriela Tavares |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Ecological studies Leprosy Spatio-temporal analysis Public health |
topic |
Ecological studies Leprosy Spatio-temporal analysis Public health |
description |
ABSTRACT Objective: To characterize the temporal trend and spatial behavior of leprosy in Brazil, from 2011 to 2021. Methods: This is an ecological study, with data from the Notifiable Diseases Information System, obtained in June 2022. The annual detection rate of new leprosy cases per 100 thousand inhabitants was calculated. To estimate the trend of the 2011–2019 and 2011–2021 series, the polynomial regression model was used, testing first-, second-, and third-order polynomials. For spatiality, natural breaks were used and, later, the univariate global and local Moran’s indexes. A significance level of 5% was adopted and the analyses were performed using SPSS®, GeoDa®, and QGIS® software. Results: The findings indicated an upward trend in the incidence of leprosy in Brazilian regions and in 20 federative units between 2011 and 2019. However, there was a decrease in most of the country when considering the COVID-19 pandemic years. Spatiality showed that the highest detection rates throughout the period were observed in the North, Midwest, and Northeast regions, with high-risk clusters, and the lowest detection rates in the South and Southeast regions, with low-risk clusters. Conclusion: The leprosy detection rate showed an upward trend in Brazil between 2011 and 2019, with greater spatial concentration in the North, Northeast, and Midwest regions. Nevertheless, the study raises an alert for the programmatic sustainability of leprosy control in Brazil, considering the drop in the COVID-19 pandemic, presumably due to the influence of the reorganization of the development of initiatives and provision of services in face of COVID-19. |
publishDate |
2022 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2022-01-01 |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S1415-790X2022000100434 |
url |
http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S1415-790X2022000100434 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
10.1590/1980-549720220040 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
text/html |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Associação Brasileira de Saúde Coletiva |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Associação Brasileira de Saúde Coletiva |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Revista Brasileira de Epidemiologia v.25 2022 reponame:Revista brasileira de epidemiologia (Online) instname:Associação Brasileira de Saúde Coletiva (ABRASCO) instacron:ABRASCO |
instname_str |
Associação Brasileira de Saúde Coletiva (ABRASCO) |
instacron_str |
ABRASCO |
institution |
ABRASCO |
reponame_str |
Revista brasileira de epidemiologia (Online) |
collection |
Revista brasileira de epidemiologia (Online) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Revista brasileira de epidemiologia (Online) - Associação Brasileira de Saúde Coletiva (ABRASCO) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
||revbrepi@usp.br |
_version_ |
1754212957192978432 |