Disease burden of chronic hepatitis C in Brazil

• Autor(a) principal: Ferreira,Paulo Roberto Abrão
• Data de Publicação: 2015
• Outros Autores: Brandão-Mello,Carlos Eduardo, Estes,Chris, Gonçales Júnior,Fernando Lopes, Coelho,Henrique Sérgio Moraes, Razavi,Homie, Cheinquer,Hugo, Wolff,Fernando Herz, Ferraz,Maria Lúcia Gomes, Pessoa,Mário Guimarães, Mendes-Correa,Maria Cássia
• Tipo de documento: Artigo
• Idioma: eng
• Título da fonte: Brazilian Journal of Infectious Diseases
• Texto Completo: http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S1413-86702015000400363
• topic: HCV; Disease burden; Epidemiology; Incidence; Brazil

Background: Hepatitis C virus infection is a major cause of cirrhosis; hepatocellular carcinoma; and liver transplantation. The aim of this study was to estimate hepatitis C virus disease progression and the burden of disease from a nationwide perspective.Methods: Using a model developed to forecast hepatitis C virus disease progression and the number of cases at each stage of liver disease; hepatitis C virus-infected population and associated disease progression in Brazil were quantified. The impact of two different strategies was compared: higher sustained virological response and treatment eligibility rates (1) or higher diagnosis and treatment rates associated with increased sustained virological response rates (2).Results: The number of infected individuals is estimated to decline by 35% by 2030 (1,255,000 individuals); while the number of cases of compensated (n= 325,900) and decompen- sated (n= 45,000) cirrhosis; hepatocellular carcinoma (n= 19,100); and liver-related deaths (n= 16,700) is supposed to peak between 2028 and 2032. In strategy 2; treated cases increased over tenfold in 2020 (118,800 treated) as compared to 2013 (11,740 treated); with sustained virological response increased to 90% and treatment eligibility to 95%. Under this strategy; the number of infected individuals decreased by 90% between 2013 and 2030. Compared to the base case; liver-related deaths decreased by 70% by 2030; while hepatitis C virus-related liver cancer and decompensated cirrhosis decreased by 75 and 80%; respectively.Conclusions: While the incidence and prevalence of hepatitis C virus in Brazil are decreasing; cases of advanced liver disease continue to rise. Besides higher sustained virological response rates; new strategies focused on increasing the proportion of diagnosed patients and eligibility to treatment should be adopted in order to reduce the burden of hepatitis C virus infection in Brazil.