Projecting the end of the Zika virus epidemic in Latin America: a modelling analysis

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: O’Reilly, Kathleen M.
Data de Publicação: 2018
Outros Autores: Lowe, Rachel, Edmunds, W. John, Mayaud, Philippe, Kucharski, Adam, Eggo, Rosalind M., Funk, Sebastian, Bhatia, Deepit, Khan, Kamran, Kraemer, Moritz U. G., Wilder-Smith, Annelies, Rodrigues, Laura C., Brasil, Patricia, Massad, Eduardo, Jaenisch, Thomas, Cauchemez, Simon, Brady, Oliver J., Yakob, Laith
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA)
Texto Completo: https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/31037
Resumo: London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. Department of Disease Control, London, United Kingdom / London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases. London, United Kingdom.
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spelling O’Reilly, Kathleen M.Lowe, RachelEdmunds, W. JohnMayaud, PhilippeKucharski, AdamEggo, Rosalind M.Funk, SebastianBhatia, DeepitKhan, KamranKraemer, Moritz U. G.Wilder-Smith, AnneliesRodrigues, Laura C.Brasil, PatriciaMassad, EduardoJaenisch, ThomasCauchemez, SimonBrady, Oliver J.Yakob, Laith2019-01-15T13:48:57Z2019-01-15T13:48:57Z2018O’Reilly, Kathleen M. et al. Projecting the end of the Zika virus epidemic in Latin America: a modelling analysis. BMC Medicine, v. 16, n. 180, p. 1-13, 2018.1741-7015https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/3103710.1186/s12916-018-1158-8engBMCProjecting the end of the Zika virus epidemic in Latin America: a modelling analysisinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleLondon School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. Department of Disease Control, London, United Kingdom / London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases. London, United Kingdom.London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases. London, United Kingdom / London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology. London, United Kingdom / Barcelona Institute for Global Health. Barcelona, Spain.London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases. London, United Kingdom / London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology. London, United Kingdom.London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. Department of Clinical Research, London, United Kingdom.London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases. London, United Kingdom / London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology. London, United Kingdom.London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases. London, United Kingdom / London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology. London, United Kingdom.London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases. London, United Kingdom / London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology. London, United Kingdom.University of Toronto. Division of Infectious Diseases. Toronto, ON, Canada / St Michael’s Hospital. Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute. Centre for Research on Inner City Health, Toronto, ON, Canada.University of Toronto. Division of Infectious Diseases. Toronto, ON, Canada / St Michael’s Hospital. Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute. Centre for Research on Inner City Health, Toronto, ON, Canada.Harvard University. Harvard Medical School. Boston, MA, United States / Boston Children’s Hospital, Boston, MA, United States / University of Oxford. Department of Zoology. Oxford, United Kingdom.London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. Department of Disease Control, London, United Kingdom / Umea University. Department of Medicine and Public Health. Umea, Sweden / University of Heidelberg. Institute of Public Health. Heidelberg, Germany.London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology. London, United Kingdom.Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Nacional de Infectologia Evandro Chagas. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.Fundação Getúlio Vargas. School of Applied Mathematics. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.University of Heidelberg. Department for Infectious Diseases and Parasitology. Department for Infectious Diseases. Heidelberg, Germany / University of Heidelberg. Department for Infectious Diseases. Heidelberg, Germany.Institut Pasteur. Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit. Paris, France / Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique. URA3012. Paris, France / Institut Pasteur. Center of Bioinformatics, Biostatistics and Integrative Biology. Paris, France.London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases. London, United Kingdom / London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology. London, United Kingdom.London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. Department of Disease Control, London, United Kingdom / London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases. London, United Kingdom.Background: Zika virus (ZIKV) emerged in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) region in 2013, with serious implications for population health in the region. In 2016, the World Health Organization declared the ZIKV outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern following a cluster of associated neurological disorders and neonatal malformations. In 2017, Zika cases declined, but future incidence in LAC remains uncertain due to gaps in our understanding, considerable variation in surveillance and the lack of a comprehensive collation of data from affected countries. Methods: Our analysis combines information on confirmed and suspected Zika cases across LAC countries and a spatio-temporal dynamic transmission model for ZIKV infection to determine key transmission parameters and projected incidence in 90 major cities within 35 countries. Seasonality was determined by spatio-temporal estimates of Aedes aegypti vectorial capacity. We used country and state-level data from 2015 to mid-2017 to infer key model parameters, country-specific disease reporting rates, and the 2018 projected incidence. A 10-fold cross-validation approach was used to validate parameter estimates to out-of-sample epidemic trajectories. Results: There was limited transmission in 2015, but in 2016 and 2017 there was sufficient opportunity for wide-spread ZIKV transmission in most cities, resulting in the depletion of susceptible individuals. We predict that the highest number of cases in 2018 would present within some Brazilian States (Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro), Colombia and French Guiana, but the estimated number of cases were no more than a few hundred. Model estimates of the timing of the peak in incidence were correlated (p < 0.05) with the reported peak in incidence. The reporting rate varied across countries, with lower reporting rates for those with only confirmed cases compared to those who reported both confirmed and suspected cases. Conclusions: The findings suggest that the ZIKV epidemic is by and large over within LAC, with incidence projected to be low in most cities in 2018. Local low levels of transmission are probable, but the estimated rate of infection suggests that most cities have a population with high levels of herd immunity.Zika virusEpidemicMathematical modellingLatin America and the CaribbeanConnectivityinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA)instname:Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ)instacron:FIOCRUZLICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-83104https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/bitstream/icict/31037/1/license.txt79178e5f2a0eb066867a274556814938MD51ORIGINALve_O'Reilly_Kathlenn_etal_INI_2018.pdfve_O'Reilly_Kathlenn_etal_INI_2018.pdfapplication/pdf9787699https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/bitstream/icict/31037/2/ve_O%27Reilly_Kathlenn_etal_INI_2018.pdf7e9819a37b03f772bcbb63c96fd61162MD52TEXTve_O'Reilly_Kathlenn_etal_INI_2018.pdf.txtve_O'Reilly_Kathlenn_etal_INI_2018.pdf.txtExtracted 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dc.title.pt_BR.fl_str_mv Projecting the end of the Zika virus epidemic in Latin America: a modelling analysis
title Projecting the end of the Zika virus epidemic in Latin America: a modelling analysis
spellingShingle Projecting the end of the Zika virus epidemic in Latin America: a modelling analysis
O’Reilly, Kathleen M.
Zika virus
Epidemic
Mathematical modelling
Latin America and the Caribbean
Connectivity
title_short Projecting the end of the Zika virus epidemic in Latin America: a modelling analysis
title_full Projecting the end of the Zika virus epidemic in Latin America: a modelling analysis
title_fullStr Projecting the end of the Zika virus epidemic in Latin America: a modelling analysis
title_full_unstemmed Projecting the end of the Zika virus epidemic in Latin America: a modelling analysis
title_sort Projecting the end of the Zika virus epidemic in Latin America: a modelling analysis
author O’Reilly, Kathleen M.
author_facet O’Reilly, Kathleen M.
Lowe, Rachel
Edmunds, W. John
Mayaud, Philippe
Kucharski, Adam
Eggo, Rosalind M.
Funk, Sebastian
Bhatia, Deepit
Khan, Kamran
Kraemer, Moritz U. G.
Wilder-Smith, Annelies
Rodrigues, Laura C.
Brasil, Patricia
Massad, Eduardo
Jaenisch, Thomas
Cauchemez, Simon
Brady, Oliver J.
Yakob, Laith
author_role author
author2 Lowe, Rachel
Edmunds, W. John
Mayaud, Philippe
Kucharski, Adam
Eggo, Rosalind M.
Funk, Sebastian
Bhatia, Deepit
Khan, Kamran
Kraemer, Moritz U. G.
Wilder-Smith, Annelies
Rodrigues, Laura C.
Brasil, Patricia
Massad, Eduardo
Jaenisch, Thomas
Cauchemez, Simon
Brady, Oliver J.
Yakob, Laith
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv O’Reilly, Kathleen M.
Lowe, Rachel
Edmunds, W. John
Mayaud, Philippe
Kucharski, Adam
Eggo, Rosalind M.
Funk, Sebastian
Bhatia, Deepit
Khan, Kamran
Kraemer, Moritz U. G.
Wilder-Smith, Annelies
Rodrigues, Laura C.
Brasil, Patricia
Massad, Eduardo
Jaenisch, Thomas
Cauchemez, Simon
Brady, Oliver J.
Yakob, Laith
dc.subject.en.pt_BR.fl_str_mv Zika virus
Epidemic
Mathematical modelling
Latin America and the Caribbean
Connectivity
topic Zika virus
Epidemic
Mathematical modelling
Latin America and the Caribbean
Connectivity
description London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. Department of Disease Control, London, United Kingdom / London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases. London, United Kingdom.
publishDate 2018
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv 2018
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv 2019-01-15T13:48:57Z
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv 2019-01-15T13:48:57Z
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.citation.fl_str_mv O’Reilly, Kathleen M. et al. Projecting the end of the Zika virus epidemic in Latin America: a modelling analysis. BMC Medicine, v. 16, n. 180, p. 1-13, 2018.
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/31037
dc.identifier.issn.pt_BR.fl_str_mv 1741-7015
dc.identifier.doi.none.fl_str_mv 10.1186/s12916-018-1158-8
identifier_str_mv O’Reilly, Kathleen M. et al. Projecting the end of the Zika virus epidemic in Latin America: a modelling analysis. BMC Medicine, v. 16, n. 180, p. 1-13, 2018.
1741-7015
10.1186/s12916-018-1158-8
url https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/31037
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
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dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv BMC
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