A Bayesian Hierarchical Model for Estimation of Abundance and Spatial Density of Aedes aegypti

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Villela, Daniel A. M.
Data de Publicação: 2015
Outros Autores: Codeço, Claudia T., Figueiredo, Felipe, Garcia, Gabriela A., Freitas, Rafael Maciel de, Struchiner, Claudio J.
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA)
Texto Completo: https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/12713
Resumo: Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Presidência. Programa de Computação Científica. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.
id CRUZ_2d9e53fefb2186bcd73a082f67d41b3f
oai_identifier_str oai:www.arca.fiocruz.br:icict/12713
network_acronym_str CRUZ
network_name_str Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA)
repository_id_str 2135
spelling Villela, Daniel A. M.Codeço, Claudia T.Figueiredo, FelipeGarcia, Gabriela A.Freitas, Rafael Maciel deStruchiner, Claudio J.2016-02-11T12:51:58Z2016-02-11T12:51:58Z2015VILLELA, Daniel A. M. et al. A Bayesian Hierarchical Model for Estimation of Abundance and Spatial Density of Aedes aegypti. Plos One, v. 10, n. 4, p. 1-17, Apr. 2015.1932-6203https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/1271310.1371/journal.pone.0123794engPublic Library of ScienceA Bayesian Hierarchical Model for Estimation of Abundance and Spatial Density of Aedes aegyptiinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleFundação Oswaldo Cruz. Presidência. Programa de Computação Científica. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Presidência. Programa de Computação Científica. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Presidência. Programa de Computação Científica. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Oswaldo Cruz. Departamento de Entomologia. Laboratório de Transmissores de Hematozoários. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Departamento de Entomologia. Laboratório de Transmissores de Hematozoários. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Presidência. Programa de Computação Científica. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.Strategies to minimize dengue transmission commonly rely on vector control, which aims to maintain Ae. aegypti density below a theoretical threshold. Mosquito abundance is traditionally estimated from mark-release-recapture (MRR) experiments, which lack proper analysis regarding accurate vector spatial distribution and population density. Recently proposed strategies to control vector-borne diseases involve replacing the susceptible wild population by genetically modified individuals’ refractory to the infection by the pathogen. Accurate measurements of mosquito abundance in time and space are required to optimize the success of such interventions. In this paper, we present a hierarchical probabilistic model for the estimation of population abundance and spatial distribution from typical mosquito MRR experiments, with direct application to the planning of these new control strategies. We perform a Bayesian analysis using the model and data from two MRR experiments performed in a neighborhood of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, during both low- and high-dengue transmission seasons. The hierarchical model indicates that mosquito spatial distribution is clustered during the winter (0.99 mosquitoes/premise 95% CI: 0.80–1.23) and more homogeneous during the high abundance period (5.2 mosquitoes/premise 95% CI: 4.3–5.9). The hierarchical model also performed better than the commonly used Fisher-Ford’s method, when using simulated data. The proposed model provides a formal treatment of the sources of uncertainty associated with the estimation of mosquito abundance imposed by the sampling design. Our approach is useful in strategies such as population suppression or the displacement of wild vector populations by refractory Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes, since the invasion dynamics have been shown to follow threshold conditions dictated by mosquito abundance. The presence of spatially distributed abundance hotspots is also formally addressed under this modeling framework and its knowledge deemed crucial to predict the fate of transmission control strategies based on the replacement of vector populations.Aedes aegyptiDengueBayesian Hierarchical ModelAedesDengueTeorema de Bayesinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA)instname:Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ)instacron:FIOCRUZLICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-82991https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/bitstream/icict/12713/1/license.txt5a560609d32a3863062d77ff32785d58MD51ORIGINALdaniel_villela_etal_IOC_2015.pdfdaniel_villela_etal_IOC_2015.pdfapplication/pdf542115https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/bitstream/icict/12713/2/daniel_villela_etal_IOC_2015.pdfa1b00c1b16fc315fe5fb1fe73669abf8MD52TEXTdaniel_villela_etal_IOC_2015.pdf.txtdaniel_villela_etal_IOC_2015.pdf.txtExtracted texttext/plain61992https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/bitstream/icict/12713/3/daniel_villela_etal_IOC_2015.pdf.txt0a8ef809262de1d5e27bc041304c2666MD53icict/127132019-06-23 15:43:57.797oai:www.arca.fiocruz.br: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ório InstitucionalPUBhttps://www.arca.fiocruz.br/oai/requestrepositorio.arca@fiocruz.bropendoar:21352019-06-23T18:43:57Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA) - Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ)false
dc.title.pt_BR.fl_str_mv A Bayesian Hierarchical Model for Estimation of Abundance and Spatial Density of Aedes aegypti
title A Bayesian Hierarchical Model for Estimation of Abundance and Spatial Density of Aedes aegypti
spellingShingle A Bayesian Hierarchical Model for Estimation of Abundance and Spatial Density of Aedes aegypti
Villela, Daniel A. M.
Aedes aegypti
Dengue
Bayesian Hierarchical Model
Aedes
Dengue
Teorema de Bayes
title_short A Bayesian Hierarchical Model for Estimation of Abundance and Spatial Density of Aedes aegypti
title_full A Bayesian Hierarchical Model for Estimation of Abundance and Spatial Density of Aedes aegypti
title_fullStr A Bayesian Hierarchical Model for Estimation of Abundance and Spatial Density of Aedes aegypti
title_full_unstemmed A Bayesian Hierarchical Model for Estimation of Abundance and Spatial Density of Aedes aegypti
title_sort A Bayesian Hierarchical Model for Estimation of Abundance and Spatial Density of Aedes aegypti
author Villela, Daniel A. M.
author_facet Villela, Daniel A. M.
Codeço, Claudia T.
Figueiredo, Felipe
Garcia, Gabriela A.
Freitas, Rafael Maciel de
Struchiner, Claudio J.
author_role author
author2 Codeço, Claudia T.
Figueiredo, Felipe
Garcia, Gabriela A.
Freitas, Rafael Maciel de
Struchiner, Claudio J.
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Villela, Daniel A. M.
Codeço, Claudia T.
Figueiredo, Felipe
Garcia, Gabriela A.
Freitas, Rafael Maciel de
Struchiner, Claudio J.
dc.subject.en.pt_BR.fl_str_mv Aedes aegypti
Dengue
Bayesian Hierarchical Model
topic Aedes aegypti
Dengue
Bayesian Hierarchical Model
Aedes
Dengue
Teorema de Bayes
dc.subject.decs.pt_BR.fl_str_mv Aedes
Dengue
Teorema de Bayes
description Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Presidência. Programa de Computação Científica. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.
publishDate 2015
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv 2015
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv 2016-02-11T12:51:58Z
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv 2016-02-11T12:51:58Z
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.citation.fl_str_mv VILLELA, Daniel A. M. et al. A Bayesian Hierarchical Model for Estimation of Abundance and Spatial Density of Aedes aegypti. Plos One, v. 10, n. 4, p. 1-17, Apr. 2015.
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/12713
dc.identifier.issn.none.fl_str_mv 1932-6203
dc.identifier.doi.none.fl_str_mv 10.1371/journal.pone.0123794
identifier_str_mv VILLELA, Daniel A. M. et al. A Bayesian Hierarchical Model for Estimation of Abundance and Spatial Density of Aedes aegypti. Plos One, v. 10, n. 4, p. 1-17, Apr. 2015.
1932-6203
10.1371/journal.pone.0123794
url https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/12713
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Public Library of Science
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Public Library of Science
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA)
instname:Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ)
instacron:FIOCRUZ
instname_str Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ)
instacron_str FIOCRUZ
institution FIOCRUZ
reponame_str Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA)
collection Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA)
bitstream.url.fl_str_mv https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/bitstream/icict/12713/1/license.txt
https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/bitstream/icict/12713/2/daniel_villela_etal_IOC_2015.pdf
https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/bitstream/icict/12713/3/daniel_villela_etal_IOC_2015.pdf.txt
bitstream.checksum.fl_str_mv 5a560609d32a3863062d77ff32785d58
a1b00c1b16fc315fe5fb1fe73669abf8
0a8ef809262de1d5e27bc041304c2666
bitstream.checksumAlgorithm.fl_str_mv MD5
MD5
MD5
repository.name.fl_str_mv Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA) - Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ)
repository.mail.fl_str_mv repositorio.arca@fiocruz.br
_version_ 1798324763920171008

Registros relacionados