Modeling the non-stationary climate dependent temporal dynamics of Aedes aegypti

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Simões, Taynãna C.
Data de Publicação: 2013
Outros Autores: Codeço, Cláudia T., Nobre, Aline A., Eiras, Alvaro E.
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA)
Texto Completo: https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/35546
Resumo: Oswaldo Cruz Foundation. Sergio Arouca National School of Public Health. Department of Epidemiology and Quantitative Methods in Health. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil.
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spelling Simões, Taynãna C.Codeço, Cláudia T.Nobre, Aline A.Eiras, Alvaro E.2019-09-12T17:17:19Z2013SIMÕES, Taynãna C. et al. Modeling the non-stationary climate dependent temporal dynamics of Aedes aegypti. Plos One, v. 8, n. 8, p. 1-10, Aug. 2013.https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/3554610.1371/journal.pone.0064773Modeling the non-stationary climate dependent temporal dynamics of Aedes aegyptiinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleOswaldo Cruz Foundation. Sergio Arouca National School of Public Health. Department of Epidemiology and Quantitative Methods in Health. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil.Oswaldo Cruz Foundation. Scientific Computing Program. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil.Oswaldo Cruz Foundation. Scientific Computing Program. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil.Federal University of Minas Gerais. Institute of Biological Sciences. Department of Parasitology. Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil.Background: Temperature and humidity strongly affect the physiology, longevity, fecundity and dispersal behavior of Aedes aegypti, vector of dengue fever. Contrastingly, the statistical associations measured between time series of mosquito abundance and meteorological variables are often weak and contradictory. Here, we investigated the significance of these relationships at different time scales. Methods and Findings: A time series of the adult mosquito abundance from a medium-sized city in Brazil, lasting 109 weeks was analyzed. Meteorological variables included temperature, precipitation, wind velocity and humidity. As analytical tools, generalized linear models (GLM) with time lags and interaction terms were used to identify average effects while the wavelet analysis was complementarily used to identify transient associations. The fitted GLM showed that mosquito abundance is significantly affected by the interaction between lagged temperature and humidity, and also by the mosquito abundance a week earlier. Extreme meteorological variables were the best predictors, and the mosquito population tended to increase at values above 180 C and 54% humidity. The wavelet analysis identified non-stationary local effects of these meteorological variables on abundance throughout the study period, with peaks in the spring-summer period. The wavelet detected weak but significant effects for precipitation and wind velocity. Conclusion: Our results support the presence of transient relationships between meteorological variables and mosquito abundance. Such transient association may be explained by the ability of Ae. aegypti to buffer part of its response to climate, for example, by choosing sites with proper microclimate. We also observed enough coupling between the abundance and meteorological variables to develop a model with good predictive power. Extreme values of meteorological variables with time lags, interaction terms and previous mosquito abundance are strong predictors and should be considered when understanding the climate effect on mosquito abundance and population growth.Modeling the Non-StationaryClimateAedes aegyptiinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessengreponame:Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA)instname:Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ)instacron:FIOCRUZLICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-82991https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/bitstream/icict/35546/1/license.txt5a560609d32a3863062d77ff32785d58MD51ORIGINALModeling the Non-Stationary Climate Dependent temporal dynamics of Aedes Aegypti.pdfModeling the Non-Stationary Climate Dependent temporal dynamics of Aedes Aegypti.pdfapplication/pdf1641190https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/bitstream/icict/35546/2/Modeling%20the%20Non-Stationary%20Climate%20Dependent%20temporal%20dynamics%20of%20Aedes%20Aegypti.pdf12e82ec9a05d3f5bfa810f99b86231aeMD52TEXTModeling the 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dc.title.pt_BR.fl_str_mv Modeling the non-stationary climate dependent temporal dynamics of Aedes aegypti
title Modeling the non-stationary climate dependent temporal dynamics of Aedes aegypti
spellingShingle Modeling the non-stationary climate dependent temporal dynamics of Aedes aegypti
Simões, Taynãna C.
Modeling the Non-Stationary
Climate
Aedes aegypti
title_short Modeling the non-stationary climate dependent temporal dynamics of Aedes aegypti
title_full Modeling the non-stationary climate dependent temporal dynamics of Aedes aegypti
title_fullStr Modeling the non-stationary climate dependent temporal dynamics of Aedes aegypti
title_full_unstemmed Modeling the non-stationary climate dependent temporal dynamics of Aedes aegypti
title_sort Modeling the non-stationary climate dependent temporal dynamics of Aedes aegypti
author Simões, Taynãna C.
author_facet Simões, Taynãna C.
Codeço, Cláudia T.
Nobre, Aline A.
Eiras, Alvaro E.
author_role author
author2 Codeço, Cláudia T.
Nobre, Aline A.
Eiras, Alvaro E.
author2_role author
author
author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Simões, Taynãna C.
Codeço, Cláudia T.
Nobre, Aline A.
Eiras, Alvaro E.
dc.subject.en.pt_BR.fl_str_mv Modeling the Non-Stationary
Climate
Aedes aegypti
topic Modeling the Non-Stationary
Climate
Aedes aegypti
description Oswaldo Cruz Foundation. Sergio Arouca National School of Public Health. Department of Epidemiology and Quantitative Methods in Health. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil.
publishDate 2013
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv 2013
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv 2019-09-12T17:17:19Z
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.citation.fl_str_mv SIMÕES, Taynãna C. et al. Modeling the non-stationary climate dependent temporal dynamics of Aedes aegypti. Plos One, v. 8, n. 8, p. 1-10, Aug. 2013.
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/35546
dc.identifier.doi.pt_BR.fl_str_mv 10.1371/journal.pone.0064773
identifier_str_mv SIMÕES, Taynãna C. et al. Modeling the non-stationary climate dependent temporal dynamics of Aedes aegypti. Plos One, v. 8, n. 8, p. 1-10, Aug. 2013.
10.1371/journal.pone.0064773
url https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/35546
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
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instname:Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ)
instacron:FIOCRUZ
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instacron_str FIOCRUZ
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reponame_str Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA)
collection Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA)
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