Vaccinating in disease-free regions: a vaccine model with application to yellow fever

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Codeço, Claudia T.
Data de Publicação: 2007
Outros Autores: Luz, Paula M., Coelho, Flavio, Galvani, Alison P., Struchiner, Claudio
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA)
Texto Completo: https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/58196
Resumo: Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Presidência. Programa de Computação Cientifica. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.
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spelling Codeço, Claudia T.Luz, Paula M.Coelho, FlavioGalvani, Alison P.Struchiner, Claudio2023-05-08T04:00:29Z2023-05-08T04:00:29Z2007CODEÇO, Claudia T. et al. Vaccinating in disease-free regions: a vaccine model with application to yellow fever. Journal of the Royal Society Interface, v. 4, p. 1119-1125, 2007.1742-5689https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/5819610.1098/rsif.2007.02341742-5662engRoyal Society InterfaceVaccinating in disease-free regions: a vaccine model with application to yellow feverinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleFundação Oswaldo Cruz. Presidência. Programa de Computação Cientifica. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.Yale School of Public Health. New Haven, CT, USA.Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Presidência. Programa de Computação Cientifica. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.Yale School of Public Health. New Haven, CT, USA.Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Presidência. Programa de Computação Cientifica. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.Concerns regarding natural or induced emergence of infectious diseases have raised a debate on the pros and cons of pre-emptive vaccination of populations under uncertain risk. In the absence of immediate risk, ethical issues arise because even smaller risks associated with the vaccine are greater than the immediate disease risk (which is zero). The model proposed here seeks to formalize the vaccination decision process looking from the perspective of the susceptible individual, and results are shown in the context of the emergence of urban yellow fever in Brazil. The model decomposes the individual’s choice about vaccinating or not into uncertain components. The choice is modelled as a function of (i) the risk of a vaccine adverse event, (ii) the risk of an outbreak and (iii) the probability of receiving the vaccine or escaping serious disease given an outbreak. Additionally, we explore how this decision varies as a function of mass vaccination strategies of varying efficiency. If disease is considered possible but unlikely (risk of outbreak less than 0.1), delay vaccination is a good strategy if a reasonably efficient campaign is expected. The advantage of waiting increases as the rate of transmission is reduced (low R0) suggesting that vector control programmes and emergency vaccination preparedness work together to favour this strategy. The opposing strategy, vaccinating pre-emptively, is favoured if the probability of yellow fever urbanization is high or if expected R0 is high and emergency action is expected to be slow. In summary, our model highlights the nonlinear dependence of an individual’s best strategy on the preparedness of a response to a yellow fever outbreak or other emergent infectious disease.Emerging infectious diseasesDecision analysisYellow feverinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA)instname:Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ)instacron:FIOCRUZORIGINALve_Claudia_Codeço_etal_PROCC_2007.pdfve_Claudia_Codeço_etal_PROCC_2007.pdfapplication/pdf394350https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/bitstream/icict/58196/2/ve_Claudia_Code%c3%a7o_etal_PROCC_2007.pdf6869c6d6111d6f7d49f187a3d89f818bMD52LICENSElicense.txttext/plain1748https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/bitstream/icict/58196/1/license.txt8a4605be74aa9ea9d79846c1fba20a33MD51icict/581962023-05-08 02:07:45.647oai:www.arca.fiocruz.br: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Repositório InstitucionalPUBhttps://www.arca.fiocruz.br/oai/requestrepositorio.arca@fiocruz.bropendoar:21352023-05-08T05:07:45Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA) - Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ)false
dc.title.en_US.fl_str_mv Vaccinating in disease-free regions: a vaccine model with application to yellow fever
title Vaccinating in disease-free regions: a vaccine model with application to yellow fever
spellingShingle Vaccinating in disease-free regions: a vaccine model with application to yellow fever
Codeço, Claudia T.
Emerging infectious diseases
Decision analysis
Yellow fever
title_short Vaccinating in disease-free regions: a vaccine model with application to yellow fever
title_full Vaccinating in disease-free regions: a vaccine model with application to yellow fever
title_fullStr Vaccinating in disease-free regions: a vaccine model with application to yellow fever
title_full_unstemmed Vaccinating in disease-free regions: a vaccine model with application to yellow fever
title_sort Vaccinating in disease-free regions: a vaccine model with application to yellow fever
author Codeço, Claudia T.
author_facet Codeço, Claudia T.
Luz, Paula M.
Coelho, Flavio
Galvani, Alison P.
Struchiner, Claudio
author_role author
author2 Luz, Paula M.
Coelho, Flavio
Galvani, Alison P.
Struchiner, Claudio
author2_role author
author
author
author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Codeço, Claudia T.
Luz, Paula M.
Coelho, Flavio
Galvani, Alison P.
Struchiner, Claudio
dc.subject.en.en_US.fl_str_mv Emerging infectious diseases
Decision analysis
Yellow fever
topic Emerging infectious diseases
Decision analysis
Yellow fever
description Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Presidência. Programa de Computação Cientifica. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.
publishDate 2007
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv 2007
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv 2023-05-08T04:00:29Z
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv 2023-05-08T04:00:29Z
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.citation.fl_str_mv CODEÇO, Claudia T. et al. Vaccinating in disease-free regions: a vaccine model with application to yellow fever. Journal of the Royal Society Interface, v. 4, p. 1119-1125, 2007.
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/58196
dc.identifier.issn.en_US.fl_str_mv 1742-5689
dc.identifier.doi.none.fl_str_mv 10.1098/rsif.2007.0234
dc.identifier.eissn.none.fl_str_mv 1742-5662
identifier_str_mv CODEÇO, Claudia T. et al. Vaccinating in disease-free regions: a vaccine model with application to yellow fever. Journal of the Royal Society Interface, v. 4, p. 1119-1125, 2007.
1742-5689
10.1098/rsif.2007.0234
1742-5662
url https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/58196
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Royal Society Interface
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Royal Society Interface
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA)
instname:Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ)
instacron:FIOCRUZ
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collection Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA)
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