Malaria time series in the extra-Amazon region of Brazil: epidemiological scenario and a two-year prediction model

Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Garcia, Klauss Kleydmann Sabino
Publication Date: 2022
Other Authors: Abrahão, Amanda Amaral, Oliveira, Ana Flávia de Morais, Henriques, Karina Medeiros de Deus, Pina-Costa, Anielle de, Siqueira, André Machado, Ramalho, Walter Massa
Format: Article
Language: eng
Source: Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA)
Download full: https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/55310
Summary: University of Brasilia. Tropical Medicine Center. Brasília, DF, Brazil.
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spelling Garcia, Klauss Kleydmann SabinoAbrahão, Amanda AmaralOliveira, Ana Flávia de MoraisHenriques, Karina Medeiros de DeusPina-Costa, Anielle deSiqueira, André MachadoRamalho, Walter Massa2022-10-25T16:37:37Z2022-10-25T16:37:37Z2022GARCIA, Klauss Kleydmann Sabino et al. Malaria time series in the extra-Amazon region of Brazil: epidemiological scenario and a two-year prediction model. Malaria journal, v. 21, n. 1, p. 1-11, 2022.1475-2875https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/5531010.1186/s12936-022-04162-1engBMCMalaria time series in the extra-Amazon region of Brazil: epidemiological scenario and a two-year prediction modelinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleUniversity of Brasilia. Tropical Medicine Center. Brasília, DF, Brazil.Health Ministry of Brazil. Brasilia, DF, Brazil.Federal Institute of Education, Science and Technology of Tocantins. Araguaína, TO, Brazil.Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Nacional de Infectologia Evandro Chagas. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.Centro Universitário Serra Dos Órgãos. School of Medicine. Teresópolis, RJ, Brazil.Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Nacional de Infectologia Evandro Chagas. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.University of Brasilia. Tropical Medicine Center. Brasília, DF, Brazil.Background: In Brazil, malaria is caused mainly by the Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum species. Its transmission occurs in endemic and non-endemic areas. Malaria geography in Brazil has retracted and is now concentrated in the North region. The Brazilian Amazon region accounts for 99% of Brazil's cases. Brazil's extra-Amazon region has a high frequency of imported cases and in 2019 presented a mortality rate 123 times higher than the Amazon region. Extra-Amazon cases present risks of reintroduction. This study aims to characterize the epidemiological scenario for malaria in the extra-Amazon region of Brazil from 2011 to 2020 with a two-year forecast. Methods: Time-series study with description of malaria cases and deaths registered in Brazilian extra-Amazon region from 2011 to 2020. Public data from the Notifiable Diseases Information System (Sinan) and the Mortality Information System (SIM) were used. Descriptive analysis, incidence, and notification rates were calculated. Flow charts analysed the flux between Places of Probable Infection (PI) and places of notification. The prediction model utilized a multiplicative Holt-winters model for trend and seasonality components. Results: A total of 6849 cases were registered. Cases were predominantly white males with 9 to 11 years of education, mostly between 30 and 39 years old. Imported cases accounted for 78.9% of cases. Most frequent occupations for imported cases are related to travelling and tourism activities. Among autochthonous cases, there is a higher frequency of agriculture and domestic economic activities. In the period there were 118 deaths due to malaria, of which 34.7% were caused by P. falciparum infections and 48.3% were not specified. The most intense flows of imported cases are from Amazonas and Rondônia to São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, and Paraná. The prediction estimates around 611 cases for each of the following two years. Conclusion: The time series allows a vast epidemiological visualization with a short-term prediction analysis that supports public health planning. Government actions need to be better directed in the extra-Amazon region so the objective of eliminating malaria in Brazil is achieved. Carrying out quality assessments for information systems and qualifying personnel is advisable. Malaria outside the Amazon region is mainly due to imported cases and delay in diagnosis is associated with a higher fatality rate. Better strategies to diagnose and treat suspected cases can lead to lower risk of deaths and local outbreaks that will be important for achieving malaria elimination in Brazil.ControlEliminationEpidemiologyExtra-AmazonMalariaMalaria CasePublic Healthinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA)instname:Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ)instacron:FIOCRUZORIGINALMalaria_Andre_Siqueira_etal_INI_2022.pdfMalaria_Andre_Siqueira_etal_INI_2022.pdfapplication/pdf2693866https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/bitstream/icict/55310/2/Malaria_Andre_Siqueira_etal_INI_2022.pdff5c5c06ff0bb56ede7db869d93fca1b4MD52LICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-82991https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/bitstream/icict/55310/1/license.txt5a560609d32a3863062d77ff32785d58MD51icict/553102022-10-25 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dc.title.en_US.fl_str_mv Malaria time series in the extra-Amazon region of Brazil: epidemiological scenario and a two-year prediction model
title Malaria time series in the extra-Amazon region of Brazil: epidemiological scenario and a two-year prediction model
spellingShingle Malaria time series in the extra-Amazon region of Brazil: epidemiological scenario and a two-year prediction model
Garcia, Klauss Kleydmann Sabino
Control
Elimination
Epidemiology
Extra-Amazon
Malaria
Malaria Case
Public Health
title_short Malaria time series in the extra-Amazon region of Brazil: epidemiological scenario and a two-year prediction model
title_full Malaria time series in the extra-Amazon region of Brazil: epidemiological scenario and a two-year prediction model
title_fullStr Malaria time series in the extra-Amazon region of Brazil: epidemiological scenario and a two-year prediction model
title_full_unstemmed Malaria time series in the extra-Amazon region of Brazil: epidemiological scenario and a two-year prediction model
title_sort Malaria time series in the extra-Amazon region of Brazil: epidemiological scenario and a two-year prediction model
author Garcia, Klauss Kleydmann Sabino
author_facet Garcia, Klauss Kleydmann Sabino
Abrahão, Amanda Amaral
Oliveira, Ana Flávia de Morais
Henriques, Karina Medeiros de Deus
Pina-Costa, Anielle de
Siqueira, André Machado
Ramalho, Walter Massa
author_role author
author2 Abrahão, Amanda Amaral
Oliveira, Ana Flávia de Morais
Henriques, Karina Medeiros de Deus
Pina-Costa, Anielle de
Siqueira, André Machado
Ramalho, Walter Massa
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Garcia, Klauss Kleydmann Sabino
Abrahão, Amanda Amaral
Oliveira, Ana Flávia de Morais
Henriques, Karina Medeiros de Deus
Pina-Costa, Anielle de
Siqueira, André Machado
Ramalho, Walter Massa
dc.subject.en.en_US.fl_str_mv Control
Elimination
Epidemiology
Extra-Amazon
Malaria
Malaria Case
Public Health
topic Control
Elimination
Epidemiology
Extra-Amazon
Malaria
Malaria Case
Public Health
description University of Brasilia. Tropical Medicine Center. Brasília, DF, Brazil.
publishDate 2022
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv 2022-10-25T16:37:37Z
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv 2022-10-25T16:37:37Z
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv 2022
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.citation.fl_str_mv GARCIA, Klauss Kleydmann Sabino et al. Malaria time series in the extra-Amazon region of Brazil: epidemiological scenario and a two-year prediction model. Malaria journal, v. 21, n. 1, p. 1-11, 2022.
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/55310
dc.identifier.issn.en_US.fl_str_mv 1475-2875
dc.identifier.doi.none.fl_str_mv 10.1186/s12936-022-04162-1
identifier_str_mv GARCIA, Klauss Kleydmann Sabino et al. Malaria time series in the extra-Amazon region of Brazil: epidemiological scenario and a two-year prediction model. Malaria journal, v. 21, n. 1, p. 1-11, 2022.
1475-2875
10.1186/s12936-022-04162-1
url https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/55310
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv BMC
publisher.none.fl_str_mv BMC
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA)
instname:Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ)
instacron:FIOCRUZ
instname_str Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ)
instacron_str FIOCRUZ
institution FIOCRUZ
reponame_str Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA)
collection Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA)
bitstream.url.fl_str_mv https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/bitstream/icict/55310/2/Malaria_Andre_Siqueira_etal_INI_2022.pdf
https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/bitstream/icict/55310/1/license.txt
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repository.name.fl_str_mv Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA) - Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ)
repository.mail.fl_str_mv repositorio.arca@fiocruz.br
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