Panicum maximum cv. Tanzânia: climate trends and regional pasture production in Brazil.
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2016 |
Outros Autores: | , , , , , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Institucional da EMBRAPA (Repository Open Access to Scientific Information from EMBRAPA - Alice) |
Texto Completo: | http://www.alice.cnptia.embrapa.br/alice/handle/doc/1064731 |
Resumo: | Abstracts: Projected change in forage production under a range of climate scenarios is important for the evaluation of the impacts of global climate change on pasture-based livestock production systems in Brazil. We evaluated the effects of regional climate trends on Panicum maximum cv. Tanzânia production, predicted by agro-meteorological model considering the sum of degree days and corrected by a water availa bility index. Data from Brazilian weather stations (1963-2009) were considered as the current climate (baseline), and future scenarios, based on contrasting scenarios interms of increased temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentrations (high and low increases), were determined for 2013?2040 (2025 scenario) and for 2043-2070 (2055 scenario). Predicted baseline scenarios indicated that there are regional and seasonal variations in P. maximum production related to variation intemperature and water availability during the year. Production was lower in the Northeast region and higher in the rainforest area. Total annual productionunder future climate scenarios was predicted toincrease by up to 20% for most of the Brazilian area, mainly due to temperature increase, according to each climate model and scenario evaluated. The highest increase in forage production is expected to be in the South, Southeast and Central-west areas of Brazil. In these regions, future climate scenarios will not lead to changes in the seasonal production, with largerincreases in productivity during the summer. Climate risk is expected to decrease, as the probability of occurrence of low forage productions will be lower. Due to the predicted increase in temperature and decrease in rainfall in the Northeast area, P. maximum production is expected to decrease, mainly when considering scenarios based on the PRECIS model for the 2055 scenario. |
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Panicum maximum cv. Tanzânia: climate trends and regional pasture production in Brazil.ETA modelGlobal climate changesGrowing degree daysPRECIS modelGeoprocessamentoFeed cropsGeographical information systemsAgricultura de precisãoPlanta forrageiraBalanço hídricoImpacto ambientalSistema de Informação GeográficaPrecision agricultureEnvironmental impactWater balanceBrazilAbstracts: Projected change in forage production under a range of climate scenarios is important for the evaluation of the impacts of global climate change on pasture-based livestock production systems in Brazil. We evaluated the effects of regional climate trends on Panicum maximum cv. Tanzânia production, predicted by agro-meteorological model considering the sum of degree days and corrected by a water availa bility index. Data from Brazilian weather stations (1963-2009) were considered as the current climate (baseline), and future scenarios, based on contrasting scenarios interms of increased temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentrations (high and low increases), were determined for 2013?2040 (2025 scenario) and for 2043-2070 (2055 scenario). Predicted baseline scenarios indicated that there are regional and seasonal variations in P. maximum production related to variation intemperature and water availability during the year. Production was lower in the Northeast region and higher in the rainforest area. Total annual productionunder future climate scenarios was predicted toincrease by up to 20% for most of the Brazilian area, mainly due to temperature increase, according to each climate model and scenario evaluated. The highest increase in forage production is expected to be in the South, Southeast and Central-west areas of Brazil. In these regions, future climate scenarios will not lead to changes in the seasonal production, with largerincreases in productivity during the summer. Climate risk is expected to decrease, as the probability of occurrence of low forage productions will be lower. Due to the predicted increase in temperature and decrease in rainfall in the Northeast area, P. maximum production is expected to decrease, mainly when considering scenarios based on the PRECIS model for the 2055 scenario.JOSE RICARDO MACEDO PEZZOPANE, CPPSE; PATRICIA MENEZES SANTOS, CPPSE; SILVIO ROBERTO MEDEIROS EVANGELISTA, CNPTIA; Cristiam Bosi, Luiz de Queiroz College of Agriculture, University of São Paulo (USP) - Piracicaba, SP, Brazil; ANA CLARA RODRIGUES CAVALCANTE, CNPC; GIOVANA MARANHAO BETTIOL, CPAC; CARLOS AUGUSTO DE MIRANDA GOMIDE, CNPGL; GIAMPAOLO QUEIROZ PELLEGRINO, CNPTIA.PEZZOPANE, J. R. M.SANTOS, P. M.EVANGELISTA, S. R. M.BOSI, C.CAVALCANTE, A. C. R.BETTIOL, G. M.GOMIDE, C. A. de M.PELLEGRINO, G. Q.2018-10-17T01:39:15Z2018-10-17T01:39:15Z2017-02-2020162018-10-17T01:39:15Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleGrass and Forage Science, v. 72, n. 1, p. 104-117, 2016.http://www.alice.cnptia.embrapa.br/alice/handle/doc/106473110.1111/gfs.12229enginfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Institucional da EMBRAPA (Repository Open Access to Scientific Information from EMBRAPA - Alice)instname:Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária (Embrapa)instacron:EMBRAPA2018-10-17T01:39:21Zoai:www.alice.cnptia.embrapa.br:doc/1064731Repositório InstitucionalPUBhttps://www.alice.cnptia.embrapa.br/oai/requestopendoar:21542018-10-17T01:39:21falseRepositório InstitucionalPUBhttps://www.alice.cnptia.embrapa.br/oai/requestcg-riaa@embrapa.bropendoar:21542018-10-17T01:39:21Repositório Institucional da EMBRAPA (Repository Open Access to Scientific Information from EMBRAPA - Alice) - Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária (Embrapa)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Panicum maximum cv. Tanzânia: climate trends and regional pasture production in Brazil. |
title |
Panicum maximum cv. Tanzânia: climate trends and regional pasture production in Brazil. |
spellingShingle |
Panicum maximum cv. Tanzânia: climate trends and regional pasture production in Brazil. PEZZOPANE, J. R. M. ETA model Global climate changes Growing degree days PRECIS model Geoprocessamento Feed crops Geographical information systems Agricultura de precisão Planta forrageira Balanço hídrico Impacto ambiental Sistema de Informação Geográfica Precision agriculture Environmental impact Water balance Brazil |
title_short |
Panicum maximum cv. Tanzânia: climate trends and regional pasture production in Brazil. |
title_full |
Panicum maximum cv. Tanzânia: climate trends and regional pasture production in Brazil. |
title_fullStr |
Panicum maximum cv. Tanzânia: climate trends and regional pasture production in Brazil. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Panicum maximum cv. Tanzânia: climate trends and regional pasture production in Brazil. |
title_sort |
Panicum maximum cv. Tanzânia: climate trends and regional pasture production in Brazil. |
author |
PEZZOPANE, J. R. M. |
author_facet |
PEZZOPANE, J. R. M. SANTOS, P. M. EVANGELISTA, S. R. M. BOSI, C. CAVALCANTE, A. C. R. BETTIOL, G. M. GOMIDE, C. A. de M. PELLEGRINO, G. Q. |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
SANTOS, P. M. EVANGELISTA, S. R. M. BOSI, C. CAVALCANTE, A. C. R. BETTIOL, G. M. GOMIDE, C. A. de M. PELLEGRINO, G. Q. |
author2_role |
author author author author author author author |
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
JOSE RICARDO MACEDO PEZZOPANE, CPPSE; PATRICIA MENEZES SANTOS, CPPSE; SILVIO ROBERTO MEDEIROS EVANGELISTA, CNPTIA; Cristiam Bosi, Luiz de Queiroz College of Agriculture, University of São Paulo (USP) - Piracicaba, SP, Brazil; ANA CLARA RODRIGUES CAVALCANTE, CNPC; GIOVANA MARANHAO BETTIOL, CPAC; CARLOS AUGUSTO DE MIRANDA GOMIDE, CNPGL; GIAMPAOLO QUEIROZ PELLEGRINO, CNPTIA. |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
PEZZOPANE, J. R. M. SANTOS, P. M. EVANGELISTA, S. R. M. BOSI, C. CAVALCANTE, A. C. R. BETTIOL, G. M. GOMIDE, C. A. de M. PELLEGRINO, G. Q. |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
ETA model Global climate changes Growing degree days PRECIS model Geoprocessamento Feed crops Geographical information systems Agricultura de precisão Planta forrageira Balanço hídrico Impacto ambiental Sistema de Informação Geográfica Precision agriculture Environmental impact Water balance Brazil |
topic |
ETA model Global climate changes Growing degree days PRECIS model Geoprocessamento Feed crops Geographical information systems Agricultura de precisão Planta forrageira Balanço hídrico Impacto ambiental Sistema de Informação Geográfica Precision agriculture Environmental impact Water balance Brazil |
description |
Abstracts: Projected change in forage production under a range of climate scenarios is important for the evaluation of the impacts of global climate change on pasture-based livestock production systems in Brazil. We evaluated the effects of regional climate trends on Panicum maximum cv. Tanzânia production, predicted by agro-meteorological model considering the sum of degree days and corrected by a water availa bility index. Data from Brazilian weather stations (1963-2009) were considered as the current climate (baseline), and future scenarios, based on contrasting scenarios interms of increased temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentrations (high and low increases), were determined for 2013?2040 (2025 scenario) and for 2043-2070 (2055 scenario). Predicted baseline scenarios indicated that there are regional and seasonal variations in P. maximum production related to variation intemperature and water availability during the year. Production was lower in the Northeast region and higher in the rainforest area. Total annual productionunder future climate scenarios was predicted toincrease by up to 20% for most of the Brazilian area, mainly due to temperature increase, according to each climate model and scenario evaluated. The highest increase in forage production is expected to be in the South, Southeast and Central-west areas of Brazil. In these regions, future climate scenarios will not lead to changes in the seasonal production, with largerincreases in productivity during the summer. Climate risk is expected to decrease, as the probability of occurrence of low forage productions will be lower. Due to the predicted increase in temperature and decrease in rainfall in the Northeast area, P. maximum production is expected to decrease, mainly when considering scenarios based on the PRECIS model for the 2055 scenario. |
publishDate |
2016 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2016 2017-02-20 2018-10-17T01:39:15Z 2018-10-17T01:39:15Z 2018-10-17T01:39:15Z |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
Grass and Forage Science, v. 72, n. 1, p. 104-117, 2016. http://www.alice.cnptia.embrapa.br/alice/handle/doc/1064731 10.1111/gfs.12229 |
identifier_str_mv |
Grass and Forage Science, v. 72, n. 1, p. 104-117, 2016. 10.1111/gfs.12229 |
url |
http://www.alice.cnptia.embrapa.br/alice/handle/doc/1064731 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Repositório Institucional da EMBRAPA (Repository Open Access to Scientific Information from EMBRAPA - Alice) instname:Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária (Embrapa) instacron:EMBRAPA |
instname_str |
Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária (Embrapa) |
instacron_str |
EMBRAPA |
institution |
EMBRAPA |
reponame_str |
Repositório Institucional da EMBRAPA (Repository Open Access to Scientific Information from EMBRAPA - Alice) |
collection |
Repositório Institucional da EMBRAPA (Repository Open Access to Scientific Information from EMBRAPA - Alice) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Repositório Institucional da EMBRAPA (Repository Open Access to Scientific Information from EMBRAPA - Alice) - Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária (Embrapa) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
cg-riaa@embrapa.br |
_version_ |
1794503463701315584 |