MDIR Monthly Ignition Risk Maps, an Integrated Open-Source Strategy for Wildfire Prevention
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2022 |
Outros Autores: | , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
Texto Completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/10316/103248 https://doi.org/10.3390/f13030408 |
Resumo: | Countries unaccustomed to wildfires are currently experiencing wildfire as a new climatechange reality. Understanding how fire ignition and propagation are correlated with temperature, orography, humidity, wind, and the mixture and age of individual plants must be considered when designing prevention strategies. While wildfire prevention focuses on fire ignition avoidance, firefighting success depends on early ignition detection, meaning that, in either case, ignition plays a major role. The current case study considered three Portuguese municipalities that annually observe frequent fire ignitions (Tomar, Ourém, and Ferreira do Zêzere) as the testing ground for the Modernized Dynamic Ignition Risk (MDIR) strategy, thus evaluating the efficiency of MDIR and the efficacy of the variables used. This methodology uses geographic information systems technology sustained by open-source satellite imagery, along with the Habitat Risk Assessment model from the InVEST software package, as drivers for the MDIR application. The MDIR approach grants frequent update capabilities and fully open-sourced high ignition risk area identification, producing monthly ignition risk maps. The advantage of using this method is the ease of adaptation to any current monitoring strategy, awarding further efficiency and efficacy in reducing ignitions. The approach delivered adequate results in estimating ignitions for the three Portuguese municipalities, achieving, for several months, prediction accuracy percentages of over 70%. For the studied area, MDIR clearly identifies areas of high ignition risk and delivers an average of 62% success in predicting ignitions, thus showing potential for analyzing the impact of policy implementation and monitoring through the strategy design. |
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MDIR Monthly Ignition Risk Maps, an Integrated Open-Source Strategy for Wildfire Preventionfire ignitionfire hazardQGISInVESTNDVIS2 NDWIriskCountries unaccustomed to wildfires are currently experiencing wildfire as a new climatechange reality. Understanding how fire ignition and propagation are correlated with temperature, orography, humidity, wind, and the mixture and age of individual plants must be considered when designing prevention strategies. While wildfire prevention focuses on fire ignition avoidance, firefighting success depends on early ignition detection, meaning that, in either case, ignition plays a major role. The current case study considered three Portuguese municipalities that annually observe frequent fire ignitions (Tomar, Ourém, and Ferreira do Zêzere) as the testing ground for the Modernized Dynamic Ignition Risk (MDIR) strategy, thus evaluating the efficiency of MDIR and the efficacy of the variables used. This methodology uses geographic information systems technology sustained by open-source satellite imagery, along with the Habitat Risk Assessment model from the InVEST software package, as drivers for the MDIR application. The MDIR approach grants frequent update capabilities and fully open-sourced high ignition risk area identification, producing monthly ignition risk maps. The advantage of using this method is the ease of adaptation to any current monitoring strategy, awarding further efficiency and efficacy in reducing ignitions. The approach delivered adequate results in estimating ignitions for the three Portuguese municipalities, achieving, for several months, prediction accuracy percentages of over 70%. For the studied area, MDIR clearly identifies areas of high ignition risk and delivers an average of 62% success in predicting ignitions, thus showing potential for analyzing the impact of policy implementation and monitoring through the strategy design.2022info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articlehttp://hdl.handle.net/10316/103248http://hdl.handle.net/10316/103248https://doi.org/10.3390/f13030408eng1999-4907Santos, LuísLopes, VascoBaptista, Cecíliainfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2022-10-26T20:32:32Zoai:estudogeral.uc.pt:10316/103248Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T21:20:06.973995Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
MDIR Monthly Ignition Risk Maps, an Integrated Open-Source Strategy for Wildfire Prevention |
title |
MDIR Monthly Ignition Risk Maps, an Integrated Open-Source Strategy for Wildfire Prevention |
spellingShingle |
MDIR Monthly Ignition Risk Maps, an Integrated Open-Source Strategy for Wildfire Prevention Santos, Luís fire ignition fire hazard QGIS InVEST NDVI S2 NDWI risk |
title_short |
MDIR Monthly Ignition Risk Maps, an Integrated Open-Source Strategy for Wildfire Prevention |
title_full |
MDIR Monthly Ignition Risk Maps, an Integrated Open-Source Strategy for Wildfire Prevention |
title_fullStr |
MDIR Monthly Ignition Risk Maps, an Integrated Open-Source Strategy for Wildfire Prevention |
title_full_unstemmed |
MDIR Monthly Ignition Risk Maps, an Integrated Open-Source Strategy for Wildfire Prevention |
title_sort |
MDIR Monthly Ignition Risk Maps, an Integrated Open-Source Strategy for Wildfire Prevention |
author |
Santos, Luís |
author_facet |
Santos, Luís Lopes, Vasco Baptista, Cecília |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Lopes, Vasco Baptista, Cecília |
author2_role |
author author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Santos, Luís Lopes, Vasco Baptista, Cecília |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
fire ignition fire hazard QGIS InVEST NDVI S2 NDWI risk |
topic |
fire ignition fire hazard QGIS InVEST NDVI S2 NDWI risk |
description |
Countries unaccustomed to wildfires are currently experiencing wildfire as a new climatechange reality. Understanding how fire ignition and propagation are correlated with temperature, orography, humidity, wind, and the mixture and age of individual plants must be considered when designing prevention strategies. While wildfire prevention focuses on fire ignition avoidance, firefighting success depends on early ignition detection, meaning that, in either case, ignition plays a major role. The current case study considered three Portuguese municipalities that annually observe frequent fire ignitions (Tomar, Ourém, and Ferreira do Zêzere) as the testing ground for the Modernized Dynamic Ignition Risk (MDIR) strategy, thus evaluating the efficiency of MDIR and the efficacy of the variables used. This methodology uses geographic information systems technology sustained by open-source satellite imagery, along with the Habitat Risk Assessment model from the InVEST software package, as drivers for the MDIR application. The MDIR approach grants frequent update capabilities and fully open-sourced high ignition risk area identification, producing monthly ignition risk maps. The advantage of using this method is the ease of adaptation to any current monitoring strategy, awarding further efficiency and efficacy in reducing ignitions. The approach delivered adequate results in estimating ignitions for the three Portuguese municipalities, achieving, for several months, prediction accuracy percentages of over 70%. For the studied area, MDIR clearly identifies areas of high ignition risk and delivers an average of 62% success in predicting ignitions, thus showing potential for analyzing the impact of policy implementation and monitoring through the strategy design. |
publishDate |
2022 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2022 |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/10316/103248 http://hdl.handle.net/10316/103248 https://doi.org/10.3390/f13030408 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10316/103248 https://doi.org/10.3390/f13030408 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
1999-4907 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação instacron:RCAAP |
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Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
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RCAAP |
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RCAAP |
reponame_str |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
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Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
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Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
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