Scenarios for the future Brazilian power sector based on a multi-criteria assessment
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2017 |
Outros Autores: | , , , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
Texto Completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/1822/51958 |
Resumo: | The Brazilian power generation sector faces a paradigm change driven by, on one hand, a shift from a hydropower dominated mix and, on the other hand, international goals for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The objective of this work is to evaluate five scenarios for the Brazilian power sector until 2050 using a multi-criteria decision analysis tool. These scenarios include a baseline trend and low carbon policy scenarios based on carbon taxes and carbon emission limits. To support the applied methodology, a questionnaire was elaborated to integrate the perceptions of experts on the scenario evaluation process. Considering the results from multi-criteria analysis, scenario preference followed the order of increasing share of renewables in the power sector. The preferable option for the future Brazilian power sector is a scenario where wind and biomass have a major contribution. The robustness of the multi-criteria tool applied in this study was tested by a sensitivity analysis. This analysis demonstrated that, regardless of the respondents' preferences and backgrounds, scenarios with higher shares of fossil fuel sources are the least preferable option, while scenarios with major contributions from wind and biomass are the preferable option to supply electricity in Brazil through 2050. |
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Scenarios for the future Brazilian power sector based on a multi-criteria assessmentMulti-criteria decision analysisLife cycle assessmentPower generation sectorLow-carbon energy scenariosBrazilScience & TechnologyThe Brazilian power generation sector faces a paradigm change driven by, on one hand, a shift from a hydropower dominated mix and, on the other hand, international goals for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The objective of this work is to evaluate five scenarios for the Brazilian power sector until 2050 using a multi-criteria decision analysis tool. These scenarios include a baseline trend and low carbon policy scenarios based on carbon taxes and carbon emission limits. To support the applied methodology, a questionnaire was elaborated to integrate the perceptions of experts on the scenario evaluation process. Considering the results from multi-criteria analysis, scenario preference followed the order of increasing share of renewables in the power sector. The preferable option for the future Brazilian power sector is a scenario where wind and biomass have a major contribution. The robustness of the multi-criteria tool applied in this study was tested by a sensitivity analysis. This analysis demonstrated that, regardless of the respondents' preferences and backgrounds, scenarios with higher shares of fossil fuel sources are the least preferable option, while scenarios with major contributions from wind and biomass are the preferable option to supply electricity in Brazil through 2050.The research that allowed the publication of this paper has been produced with the financial assistance of the European Union in the context of the CLIMACAP project (EuropeAid/131944/C/SER/Multi) and of the U.S. Agency for International Development and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in the context of the LAMP project (under Interagency Agreements DW89923040 and DW89923951US). The contents of this publication are the sole responsibility of the authors and can in no way be taken to reflect the views of the European Union or the U.S. government. The authors would like to thank the feedback and efforts from all CLIMACAP and LAMP project partners for enabling the research results reported in this article. This research was also supported by a Marie Curie International Research Staff Exchange Scheme Fellowship within the 7th European Union Framework Programme, under project NETEP-European Brazilian Network on Energy Planning (PIRSES-GA-2013-612263).info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionElsevierUniversidade do MinhoSantos, Maria João MartinsFerreira, Paula VarandasAraújo, Maria Madalena Teixeira dePortugal-Pereira, J.Lucena, A. F. P.Schaeffer, R.20172017-01-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/1822/51958eng0959-65261879-178610.1016/j.jclepro.2017.03.145info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2023-07-21T12:26:19Zoai:repositorium.sdum.uminho.pt:1822/51958Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T19:20:41.981099Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Scenarios for the future Brazilian power sector based on a multi-criteria assessment |
title |
Scenarios for the future Brazilian power sector based on a multi-criteria assessment |
spellingShingle |
Scenarios for the future Brazilian power sector based on a multi-criteria assessment Santos, Maria João Martins Multi-criteria decision analysis Life cycle assessment Power generation sector Low-carbon energy scenarios Brazil Science & Technology |
title_short |
Scenarios for the future Brazilian power sector based on a multi-criteria assessment |
title_full |
Scenarios for the future Brazilian power sector based on a multi-criteria assessment |
title_fullStr |
Scenarios for the future Brazilian power sector based on a multi-criteria assessment |
title_full_unstemmed |
Scenarios for the future Brazilian power sector based on a multi-criteria assessment |
title_sort |
Scenarios for the future Brazilian power sector based on a multi-criteria assessment |
author |
Santos, Maria João Martins |
author_facet |
Santos, Maria João Martins Ferreira, Paula Varandas Araújo, Maria Madalena Teixeira de Portugal-Pereira, J. Lucena, A. F. P. Schaeffer, R. |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Ferreira, Paula Varandas Araújo, Maria Madalena Teixeira de Portugal-Pereira, J. Lucena, A. F. P. Schaeffer, R. |
author2_role |
author author author author author |
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade do Minho |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Santos, Maria João Martins Ferreira, Paula Varandas Araújo, Maria Madalena Teixeira de Portugal-Pereira, J. Lucena, A. F. P. Schaeffer, R. |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Multi-criteria decision analysis Life cycle assessment Power generation sector Low-carbon energy scenarios Brazil Science & Technology |
topic |
Multi-criteria decision analysis Life cycle assessment Power generation sector Low-carbon energy scenarios Brazil Science & Technology |
description |
The Brazilian power generation sector faces a paradigm change driven by, on one hand, a shift from a hydropower dominated mix and, on the other hand, international goals for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The objective of this work is to evaluate five scenarios for the Brazilian power sector until 2050 using a multi-criteria decision analysis tool. These scenarios include a baseline trend and low carbon policy scenarios based on carbon taxes and carbon emission limits. To support the applied methodology, a questionnaire was elaborated to integrate the perceptions of experts on the scenario evaluation process. Considering the results from multi-criteria analysis, scenario preference followed the order of increasing share of renewables in the power sector. The preferable option for the future Brazilian power sector is a scenario where wind and biomass have a major contribution. The robustness of the multi-criteria tool applied in this study was tested by a sensitivity analysis. This analysis demonstrated that, regardless of the respondents' preferences and backgrounds, scenarios with higher shares of fossil fuel sources are the least preferable option, while scenarios with major contributions from wind and biomass are the preferable option to supply electricity in Brazil through 2050. |
publishDate |
2017 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2017 2017-01-01T00:00:00Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/1822/51958 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/1822/51958 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
0959-6526 1879-1786 10.1016/j.jclepro.2017.03.145 |
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info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Elsevier |
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Elsevier |
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reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação instacron:RCAAP |
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Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
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RCAAP |
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RCAAP |
reponame_str |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
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Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
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Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
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