A Synergistic Approach for Evaluating Climate Model Output for Ecological Applications
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2017 |
Outros Autores: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
Texto Completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/10316/108190 https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2017.00308 |
Resumo: | Increasing concern about the impacts of climate change on ecosystems is prompting ecologists and ecosystem managers to seek reliable projections of physical drivers of change. The use of global climate models in ecology is growing, although drawing ecologically meaningful conclusions can be problematic. The expertise required to access and interpret output fromclimate and earth systemmodels is hampering progress in utilizing them most effectively to determine the wider implications of climate change. To address this issue, we present a joint approach between climate scientists and ecologists that explores key challenges and opportunities for progress. As an exemplar, our focus is the Southern Ocean, notable for significant change with global implications, and on sea ice, given its crucial role in this dynamic ecosystem. We combined perspectives to evaluate the representation of sea ice in global climate models. With an emphasis on ecologically-relevant criteria (sea ice extent and seasonality) we selected a subset of eight models that reliably reproduce extant sea ice distributions. While the model subset shows a similar mean change to the full ensemble in sea ice extent (approximately 50% decline in winter and 30% decline in summer), there is a marked reduction in the range. This improved the precision of projected future sea ice distributions by approximately one third, and means they are more amenable to ecological interpretation. We conclude that careful multidisciplinary evaluation of climate models, in conjunction with ongoing modeling advances, should form an integral part of utilizing model output. |
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A Synergistic Approach for Evaluating Climate Model Output for Ecological ApplicationsIPCCCMIP5climate modelsSouthern Oceanmarine ecosystemsclimate changesea iceIncreasing concern about the impacts of climate change on ecosystems is prompting ecologists and ecosystem managers to seek reliable projections of physical drivers of change. The use of global climate models in ecology is growing, although drawing ecologically meaningful conclusions can be problematic. The expertise required to access and interpret output fromclimate and earth systemmodels is hampering progress in utilizing them most effectively to determine the wider implications of climate change. To address this issue, we present a joint approach between climate scientists and ecologists that explores key challenges and opportunities for progress. As an exemplar, our focus is the Southern Ocean, notable for significant change with global implications, and on sea ice, given its crucial role in this dynamic ecosystem. We combined perspectives to evaluate the representation of sea ice in global climate models. With an emphasis on ecologically-relevant criteria (sea ice extent and seasonality) we selected a subset of eight models that reliably reproduce extant sea ice distributions. While the model subset shows a similar mean change to the full ensemble in sea ice extent (approximately 50% decline in winter and 30% decline in summer), there is a marked reduction in the range. This improved the precision of projected future sea ice distributions by approximately one third, and means they are more amenable to ecological interpretation. We conclude that careful multidisciplinary evaluation of climate models, in conjunction with ongoing modeling advances, should form an integral part of utilizing model output.This paper builds on discussions that took place at a multidisciplinary workshop convened by the Integrating Climate and Ecosystem Dynamics in the Southern Ocean programme (ICED) and hosted by the British Antarctic Survey (BAS). We thank all the workshop participants. The study (and specifically RC, EM, NJ, JT, CK) was supported by ICED under a Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) International Opportunities Fund Grant NE/I029943/1, together with NERC core funding to BAS. Additional workshop funding was provided by Integrated Marine Biosphere Research (IMBeR). SC and AC were supported by the Australian Government’s Cooperative Research Centres Programme through the Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre. JX was supported by the Investigator FCT program (IF/00616/2013) and this study benefited from the strategic program of MARE, financed by FCT (MARE- UID/MAR/04292/2013). We acknowledge Tony Philips (BAS) for downloading and managing local copies of the required CMIP5 data. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling (responsible for CMIP), and we thank the climate modelling groups (Supplementary Table 4) for producing and making their model output available. For CMIP the U.S. Department of Energy’s Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison provides coordinating support and led development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals. All images belong to the British Antarctic Survey.Frontiers Media S.A.2017info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articlehttp://hdl.handle.net/10316/108190http://hdl.handle.net/10316/108190https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2017.00308eng2296-7745Cavanagh, Rachel D.Murphy, Eugene J.Bracegirdle, Thomas J.Turner, JohnKnowland, Cheryl A.Corney, Stuart P.Smith, Walker O.Waluda, Claire M.Johnston, Nadine M.Bellerby, Richard G. J.Constable, Andrew J.Costa, Daniel P.Hofmann, Eileen E.Jackson, Jennifer A.Staniland, Iain J.Wolf-Gladrow, DieterXavier, José C.info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2023-08-16T09:08:49Zoai:estudogeral.uc.pt:10316/108190Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T21:24:28.845189Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
A Synergistic Approach for Evaluating Climate Model Output for Ecological Applications |
title |
A Synergistic Approach for Evaluating Climate Model Output for Ecological Applications |
spellingShingle |
A Synergistic Approach for Evaluating Climate Model Output for Ecological Applications Cavanagh, Rachel D. IPCC CMIP5 climate models Southern Ocean marine ecosystems climate change sea ice |
title_short |
A Synergistic Approach for Evaluating Climate Model Output for Ecological Applications |
title_full |
A Synergistic Approach for Evaluating Climate Model Output for Ecological Applications |
title_fullStr |
A Synergistic Approach for Evaluating Climate Model Output for Ecological Applications |
title_full_unstemmed |
A Synergistic Approach for Evaluating Climate Model Output for Ecological Applications |
title_sort |
A Synergistic Approach for Evaluating Climate Model Output for Ecological Applications |
author |
Cavanagh, Rachel D. |
author_facet |
Cavanagh, Rachel D. Murphy, Eugene J. Bracegirdle, Thomas J. Turner, John Knowland, Cheryl A. Corney, Stuart P. Smith, Walker O. Waluda, Claire M. Johnston, Nadine M. Bellerby, Richard G. J. Constable, Andrew J. Costa, Daniel P. Hofmann, Eileen E. Jackson, Jennifer A. Staniland, Iain J. Wolf-Gladrow, Dieter Xavier, José C. |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Murphy, Eugene J. Bracegirdle, Thomas J. Turner, John Knowland, Cheryl A. Corney, Stuart P. Smith, Walker O. Waluda, Claire M. Johnston, Nadine M. Bellerby, Richard G. J. Constable, Andrew J. Costa, Daniel P. Hofmann, Eileen E. Jackson, Jennifer A. Staniland, Iain J. Wolf-Gladrow, Dieter Xavier, José C. |
author2_role |
author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Cavanagh, Rachel D. Murphy, Eugene J. Bracegirdle, Thomas J. Turner, John Knowland, Cheryl A. Corney, Stuart P. Smith, Walker O. Waluda, Claire M. Johnston, Nadine M. Bellerby, Richard G. J. Constable, Andrew J. Costa, Daniel P. Hofmann, Eileen E. Jackson, Jennifer A. Staniland, Iain J. Wolf-Gladrow, Dieter Xavier, José C. |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
IPCC CMIP5 climate models Southern Ocean marine ecosystems climate change sea ice |
topic |
IPCC CMIP5 climate models Southern Ocean marine ecosystems climate change sea ice |
description |
Increasing concern about the impacts of climate change on ecosystems is prompting ecologists and ecosystem managers to seek reliable projections of physical drivers of change. The use of global climate models in ecology is growing, although drawing ecologically meaningful conclusions can be problematic. The expertise required to access and interpret output fromclimate and earth systemmodels is hampering progress in utilizing them most effectively to determine the wider implications of climate change. To address this issue, we present a joint approach between climate scientists and ecologists that explores key challenges and opportunities for progress. As an exemplar, our focus is the Southern Ocean, notable for significant change with global implications, and on sea ice, given its crucial role in this dynamic ecosystem. We combined perspectives to evaluate the representation of sea ice in global climate models. With an emphasis on ecologically-relevant criteria (sea ice extent and seasonality) we selected a subset of eight models that reliably reproduce extant sea ice distributions. While the model subset shows a similar mean change to the full ensemble in sea ice extent (approximately 50% decline in winter and 30% decline in summer), there is a marked reduction in the range. This improved the precision of projected future sea ice distributions by approximately one third, and means they are more amenable to ecological interpretation. We conclude that careful multidisciplinary evaluation of climate models, in conjunction with ongoing modeling advances, should form an integral part of utilizing model output. |
publishDate |
2017 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2017 |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/10316/108190 http://hdl.handle.net/10316/108190 https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2017.00308 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10316/108190 https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2017.00308 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
2296-7745 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Frontiers Media S.A. |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Frontiers Media S.A. |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
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Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
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Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
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Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
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Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
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