Development of a Prediction Model for COVID-19 Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome in Patients With Rheumatic Diseases
| Autor(a) principal: | |
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| Data de Publicação: | 2022 |
| Outros Autores: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
| Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
| Idioma: | eng |
| Título da fonte: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
| Texto Completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/10362/143544 |
Resumo: | Funding Information: We acknowledge financial support from the ACR and EULAR. The ACR and EULAR were not involved in the design and conduct of the study; collection, management, analysis, and interpretation of the data; preparation, review, or approval of the manuscript; and decision to submit the manuscript for publication. Publisher Copyright: © 2022 The Authors. ACR Open Rheumatology published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American College of Rheumatology. |
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Development of a Prediction Model for COVID-19 Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome in Patients With Rheumatic DiseasesResults From the Global Rheumatology Alliance RegistryRheumatologyFunding Information: We acknowledge financial support from the ACR and EULAR. The ACR and EULAR were not involved in the design and conduct of the study; collection, management, analysis, and interpretation of the data; preparation, review, or approval of the manuscript; and decision to submit the manuscript for publication. Publisher Copyright: © 2022 The Authors. ACR Open Rheumatology published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American College of Rheumatology.Objective: Some patients with rheumatic diseases might be at higher risk for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). We aimed to develop a prediction model for COVID-19 ARDS in this population and to create a simple risk score calculator for use in clinical settings. Methods: Data were derived from the COVID-19 Global Rheumatology Alliance Registry from March 24, 2020, to May 12, 2021. Seven machine learning classifiers were trained on ARDS outcomes using 83 variables obtained at COVID-19 diagnosis. Predictive performance was assessed in a US test set and was validated in patients from four countries with independent registries using area under the curve (AUC), accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity. A simple risk score calculator was developed using a regression model incorporating the most influential predictors from the best performing classifier. Results: The study included 8633 patients from 74 countries, of whom 523 (6%) had ARDS. Gradient boosting had the highest mean AUC (0.78; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.67-0.88) and was considered the top performing classifier. Ten predictors were identified as key risk factors and were included in a regression model. The regression model that predicted ARDS with 71% (95% CI: 61%-83%) sensitivity in the test set, and with sensitivities ranging from 61% to 80% in countries with independent registries, was used to develop the risk score calculator. Conclusion: We were able to predict ARDS with good sensitivity using information readily available at COVID-19 diagnosis. The proposed risk score calculator has the potential to guide risk stratification for treatments, such as monoclonal antibodies, that have potential to reduce COVID-19 disease progression.NOVA Medical School|Faculdade de Ciências Médicas (NMS|FCM)Centro de Estudos de Doenças Crónicas (CEDOC)RUNIzadi, ZaraGianfrancesco, Milena A.Aguirre, AlfredoStrangfeld, AnjaMateus, Elsa F.Hyrich, Kimme L.Gossec, LaureCarmona, LoretoLawson-Tovey, SaskiaKearsley-Fleet, LianneSchaefer, MartinSeet, Andrea M.Schmajuk, GabrielaJacobsohn, LindsayKatz, PatriciaRush, StephanieAl-Emadi, SamarSparks, Jeffrey A.Hsu, Tiffany Y.T.Patel, Naomi J.Wise, LeannaGilbert, EmilyDuarte-García, AlíValenzuela-Almada, Maria O.Ugarte-Gil, Manuel F.Ribeiro, Sandra Lúcia Euzébiode Oliveira Marinho, Adrianade Azevedo Valadares, Lilian DavidGiuseppe, Daniela DiHasseli, RebeccaRichter, Jutta G.Pfeil, AlexanderSchmeiser, TimIsnardi, Carolina A.Reyes Torres, Alvaro A.Alle, GelsominaSaurit, VerónicaZanetti, AnnaCarrara, GretaLabreuche, JulienBarnetche, ThomasHerasse, MurielPlassart, SamiraSantos, Maria JoséMaria Rodrigues, AnaRobinson, Philip C.Machado, Pedro M.Sirotich, EmilyLiew, Jean W.Hausmann, Jonathan S.2022-09-06T22:38:09Z2022-102022-10-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10362/143544eng2578-5745PURE: 46125353https://doi.org/10.1002/acr2.11481info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2024-03-11T05:21:58Zoai:run.unl.pt:10362/143544Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-20T03:51:00.329651Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse |
| dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Development of a Prediction Model for COVID-19 Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome in Patients With Rheumatic Diseases Results From the Global Rheumatology Alliance Registry |
| title |
Development of a Prediction Model for COVID-19 Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome in Patients With Rheumatic Diseases |
| spellingShingle |
Development of a Prediction Model for COVID-19 Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome in Patients With Rheumatic Diseases Izadi, Zara Rheumatology |
| title_short |
Development of a Prediction Model for COVID-19 Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome in Patients With Rheumatic Diseases |
| title_full |
Development of a Prediction Model for COVID-19 Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome in Patients With Rheumatic Diseases |
| title_fullStr |
Development of a Prediction Model for COVID-19 Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome in Patients With Rheumatic Diseases |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Development of a Prediction Model for COVID-19 Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome in Patients With Rheumatic Diseases |
| title_sort |
Development of a Prediction Model for COVID-19 Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome in Patients With Rheumatic Diseases |
| author |
Izadi, Zara |
| author_facet |
Izadi, Zara Gianfrancesco, Milena A. Aguirre, Alfredo Strangfeld, Anja Mateus, Elsa F. Hyrich, Kimme L. Gossec, Laure Carmona, Loreto Lawson-Tovey, Saskia Kearsley-Fleet, Lianne Schaefer, Martin Seet, Andrea M. Schmajuk, Gabriela Jacobsohn, Lindsay Katz, Patricia Rush, Stephanie Al-Emadi, Samar Sparks, Jeffrey A. Hsu, Tiffany Y.T. Patel, Naomi J. Wise, Leanna Gilbert, Emily Duarte-García, Alí Valenzuela-Almada, Maria O. Ugarte-Gil, Manuel F. Ribeiro, Sandra Lúcia Euzébio de Oliveira Marinho, Adriana de Azevedo Valadares, Lilian David Giuseppe, Daniela Di Hasseli, Rebecca Richter, Jutta G. Pfeil, Alexander Schmeiser, Tim Isnardi, Carolina A. Reyes Torres, Alvaro A. Alle, Gelsomina Saurit, Verónica Zanetti, Anna Carrara, Greta Labreuche, Julien Barnetche, Thomas Herasse, Muriel Plassart, Samira Santos, Maria José Maria Rodrigues, Ana Robinson, Philip C. Machado, Pedro M. Sirotich, Emily Liew, Jean W. Hausmann, Jonathan S. |
| author_role |
author |
| author2 |
Gianfrancesco, Milena A. Aguirre, Alfredo Strangfeld, Anja Mateus, Elsa F. Hyrich, Kimme L. Gossec, Laure Carmona, Loreto Lawson-Tovey, Saskia Kearsley-Fleet, Lianne Schaefer, Martin Seet, Andrea M. Schmajuk, Gabriela Jacobsohn, Lindsay Katz, Patricia Rush, Stephanie Al-Emadi, Samar Sparks, Jeffrey A. Hsu, Tiffany Y.T. Patel, Naomi J. Wise, Leanna Gilbert, Emily Duarte-García, Alí Valenzuela-Almada, Maria O. Ugarte-Gil, Manuel F. Ribeiro, Sandra Lúcia Euzébio de Oliveira Marinho, Adriana de Azevedo Valadares, Lilian David Giuseppe, Daniela Di Hasseli, Rebecca Richter, Jutta G. Pfeil, Alexander Schmeiser, Tim Isnardi, Carolina A. Reyes Torres, Alvaro A. Alle, Gelsomina Saurit, Verónica Zanetti, Anna Carrara, Greta Labreuche, Julien Barnetche, Thomas Herasse, Muriel Plassart, Samira Santos, Maria José Maria Rodrigues, Ana Robinson, Philip C. Machado, Pedro M. Sirotich, Emily Liew, Jean W. Hausmann, Jonathan S. |
| author2_role |
author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author |
| dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
NOVA Medical School|Faculdade de Ciências Médicas (NMS|FCM) Centro de Estudos de Doenças Crónicas (CEDOC) RUN |
| dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Izadi, Zara Gianfrancesco, Milena A. Aguirre, Alfredo Strangfeld, Anja Mateus, Elsa F. Hyrich, Kimme L. Gossec, Laure Carmona, Loreto Lawson-Tovey, Saskia Kearsley-Fleet, Lianne Schaefer, Martin Seet, Andrea M. Schmajuk, Gabriela Jacobsohn, Lindsay Katz, Patricia Rush, Stephanie Al-Emadi, Samar Sparks, Jeffrey A. Hsu, Tiffany Y.T. Patel, Naomi J. Wise, Leanna Gilbert, Emily Duarte-García, Alí Valenzuela-Almada, Maria O. Ugarte-Gil, Manuel F. Ribeiro, Sandra Lúcia Euzébio de Oliveira Marinho, Adriana de Azevedo Valadares, Lilian David Giuseppe, Daniela Di Hasseli, Rebecca Richter, Jutta G. Pfeil, Alexander Schmeiser, Tim Isnardi, Carolina A. Reyes Torres, Alvaro A. Alle, Gelsomina Saurit, Verónica Zanetti, Anna Carrara, Greta Labreuche, Julien Barnetche, Thomas Herasse, Muriel Plassart, Samira Santos, Maria José Maria Rodrigues, Ana Robinson, Philip C. Machado, Pedro M. Sirotich, Emily Liew, Jean W. Hausmann, Jonathan S. |
| dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Rheumatology |
| topic |
Rheumatology |
| description |
Funding Information: We acknowledge financial support from the ACR and EULAR. The ACR and EULAR were not involved in the design and conduct of the study; collection, management, analysis, and interpretation of the data; preparation, review, or approval of the manuscript; and decision to submit the manuscript for publication. Publisher Copyright: © 2022 The Authors. ACR Open Rheumatology published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American College of Rheumatology. |
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2022 |
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2022-09-06T22:38:09Z 2022-10 2022-10-01T00:00:00Z |
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info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
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info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
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http://hdl.handle.net/10362/143544 |
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eng |
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eng |
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2578-5745 PURE: 46125353 https://doi.org/10.1002/acr2.11481 |
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