The fiscal consequences of deflation : evidence from the golden age of globalization
Autor(a) principal: | |
---|---|
Data de Publicação: | 2016 |
Outros Autores: | |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
Texto Completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/12305 |
Resumo: | We study the fiscal consequences of deflation on a panel of 17 economies in the first wave of globalization, between 1870 and 1914. By means of impulse response analyses and panel regressions, we find that a 1 percent fall in the price level leads to an increase in the public debt ratio of about 0.23- 0.32 pp. and accounting for trade openness, monetary policy and the exchange rate raises the absolute value of the coefficient on deflation. Moreover, the public debt ratio increases when deflation is also associated with a period of economic recession. For government revenue, lagged deflation comes out with a statistically significant negative coefficient, while government primary expenditure seems relatively invariant to changes in prices. |
id |
RCAP_6108b6aed8b9693338a2173931c23d81 |
---|---|
oai_identifier_str |
oai:www.repository.utl.pt:10400.5/12305 |
network_acronym_str |
RCAP |
network_name_str |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
repository_id_str |
7160 |
spelling |
The fiscal consequences of deflation : evidence from the golden age of globalizationDebtDeflationLocal ProjectionImpulse Response FunctionsGMMRecessionsExpansionsWe study the fiscal consequences of deflation on a panel of 17 economies in the first wave of globalization, between 1870 and 1914. By means of impulse response analyses and panel regressions, we find that a 1 percent fall in the price level leads to an increase in the public debt ratio of about 0.23- 0.32 pp. and accounting for trade openness, monetary policy and the exchange rate raises the absolute value of the coefficient on deflation. Moreover, the public debt ratio increases when deflation is also associated with a period of economic recession. For government revenue, lagged deflation comes out with a statistically significant negative coefficient, while government primary expenditure seems relatively invariant to changes in prices.ISEG - Departamento de EconomiaRepositório da Universidade de LisboaAfonso, AntónioJalles, João Tovar2016-10-14T14:47:39Z20162016-01-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/12305engAfonso, António e João Tovar Jalles .2016. "The fiscal consequences of deflation : evidence from the golden age of globalization". Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão. DE Working papers nº 23-2016/DE/UECE2183-1815info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2023-03-06T14:42:30Zoai:www.repository.utl.pt:10400.5/12305Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T16:58:27.333303Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
The fiscal consequences of deflation : evidence from the golden age of globalization |
title |
The fiscal consequences of deflation : evidence from the golden age of globalization |
spellingShingle |
The fiscal consequences of deflation : evidence from the golden age of globalization Afonso, António Debt Deflation Local Projection Impulse Response Functions GMM Recessions Expansions |
title_short |
The fiscal consequences of deflation : evidence from the golden age of globalization |
title_full |
The fiscal consequences of deflation : evidence from the golden age of globalization |
title_fullStr |
The fiscal consequences of deflation : evidence from the golden age of globalization |
title_full_unstemmed |
The fiscal consequences of deflation : evidence from the golden age of globalization |
title_sort |
The fiscal consequences of deflation : evidence from the golden age of globalization |
author |
Afonso, António |
author_facet |
Afonso, António Jalles, João Tovar |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Jalles, João Tovar |
author2_role |
author |
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
Repositório da Universidade de Lisboa |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Afonso, António Jalles, João Tovar |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Debt Deflation Local Projection Impulse Response Functions GMM Recessions Expansions |
topic |
Debt Deflation Local Projection Impulse Response Functions GMM Recessions Expansions |
description |
We study the fiscal consequences of deflation on a panel of 17 economies in the first wave of globalization, between 1870 and 1914. By means of impulse response analyses and panel regressions, we find that a 1 percent fall in the price level leads to an increase in the public debt ratio of about 0.23- 0.32 pp. and accounting for trade openness, monetary policy and the exchange rate raises the absolute value of the coefficient on deflation. Moreover, the public debt ratio increases when deflation is also associated with a period of economic recession. For government revenue, lagged deflation comes out with a statistically significant negative coefficient, while government primary expenditure seems relatively invariant to changes in prices. |
publishDate |
2016 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2016-10-14T14:47:39Z 2016 2016-01-01T00:00:00Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/12305 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/12305 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
Afonso, António e João Tovar Jalles .2016. "The fiscal consequences of deflation : evidence from the golden age of globalization". Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão. DE Working papers nº 23-2016/DE/UECE 2183-1815 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
ISEG - Departamento de Economia |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
ISEG - Departamento de Economia |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação instacron:RCAAP |
instname_str |
Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
instacron_str |
RCAAP |
institution |
RCAAP |
reponame_str |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
collection |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
|
_version_ |
1799131070516428800 |