Critical analysis of CMIPs past climate model projections in a regional context: The Iberian climate

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Soares, Pedro M.M.
Data de Publicação: 2022
Outros Autores: Lemos, Gil, André Lima, Daniela Catarina
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
Texto Completo: http://hdl.handle.net/10451/55941
Resumo: This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Soares, P. M. M., Lemos, G., & Lima, D. C. A. (2023). Critical analysis of CMIPs past climate model projections in a regional context: The Iberian climate. International Journal of Climatology, 1– 21, which has been published in final form at https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7973. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Use of Self-Archived Versions. This article may not be enhanced, enriched or otherwise transformed into a derivative work, without express permission from Wiley or by statutory rights under applicable legislation. Copyright notices must not be removed, obscured or modified. The article must be linked to Wiley’s version of record on Wiley Online Library and any embedding, framing or otherwise making available the article or pages thereof by third parties from platforms, services and websites other than Wiley Online Library must be prohibited.
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spelling Critical analysis of CMIPs past climate model projections in a regional context: The Iberian climateClimate changeGlobal climate modelsIberian PeninsulaThis is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Soares, P. M. M., Lemos, G., & Lima, D. C. A. (2023). Critical analysis of CMIPs past climate model projections in a regional context: The Iberian climate. International Journal of Climatology, 1– 21, which has been published in final form at https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7973. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Use of Self-Archived Versions. This article may not be enhanced, enriched or otherwise transformed into a derivative work, without express permission from Wiley or by statutory rights under applicable legislation. Copyright notices must not be removed, obscured or modified. The article must be linked to Wiley’s version of record on Wiley Online Library and any embedding, framing or otherwise making available the article or pages thereof by third parties from platforms, services and websites other than Wiley Online Library must be prohibited.The Iberian Peninsula is a known climate change hotspot. In the last decades, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) has allowed for thousands of Global Climate Model (GCM) simulations to be conducted, an important tool to assess and understand future changes in Earth's climate. The comparison of past future projections with observations provides a robust evaluation of the models’ skill according to different emission scenarios. Here, a comprehensive performance assessment of GCM-simulated mean, maximum, and minimum temperatures, and accumulated precipitation is conducted for Iberia, by retrospectively comparing historical simulations and past future projections from CMIPs 1 to 6 with reference datasets. From means to extremes, and multi-year intra-annual cycles to inter-annual trends, GCM simulations are compared with Iberia0.1 and E-OBS observational gridded datasets, and ERA5 reanalysis. The matching between the variables’ distributions is assessed through the distribution added values (DAVs), a measure of gain or loss in performance between CMIPs. Results show relevant improvements in the description of the Iberian climate throughout the CMIP effort, for historical and past future periods. While the representation of intra-annual cycles (inter-annual trends) is enhanced after CMIP3 (CMIP2), GCMs from all CMIPs are generally able to depict the observed warming trend. Nevertheless, until 2021, a slight detrimental effect in the performance of CMIP6 models is found, in comparison with CMIP5 ones, with positive DAVs obtained only for past future temperature projections (less than 2%). A continuous monitorization of modelling accuracy for Iberia is needed, considering the increasing relevance of climate change information for adaptation strategies.WileyRepositório da Universidade de LisboaSoares, Pedro M.M.Lemos, GilAndré Lima, Daniela Catarina2023-12-24T01:32:20Z2022-12-232022-12-23T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10451/55941engSoares, P. M. M., Lemos, G., & Lima, D. C. A. (2023). Critical analysis of CMIPs past climate model projections in a regional context: The Iberian climate. International Journal of Climatology, 1– 21. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.797310.1002/joc.7973info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2023-12-25T01:17:46Zoai:repositorio.ul.pt:10451/55941Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T22:06:31.288459Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Critical analysis of CMIPs past climate model projections in a regional context: The Iberian climate
title Critical analysis of CMIPs past climate model projections in a regional context: The Iberian climate
spellingShingle Critical analysis of CMIPs past climate model projections in a regional context: The Iberian climate
Soares, Pedro M.M.
Climate change
Global climate models
Iberian Peninsula
title_short Critical analysis of CMIPs past climate model projections in a regional context: The Iberian climate
title_full Critical analysis of CMIPs past climate model projections in a regional context: The Iberian climate
title_fullStr Critical analysis of CMIPs past climate model projections in a regional context: The Iberian climate
title_full_unstemmed Critical analysis of CMIPs past climate model projections in a regional context: The Iberian climate
title_sort Critical analysis of CMIPs past climate model projections in a regional context: The Iberian climate
author Soares, Pedro M.M.
author_facet Soares, Pedro M.M.
Lemos, Gil
André Lima, Daniela Catarina
author_role author
author2 Lemos, Gil
André Lima, Daniela Catarina
author2_role author
author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Repositório da Universidade de Lisboa
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Soares, Pedro M.M.
Lemos, Gil
André Lima, Daniela Catarina
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Climate change
Global climate models
Iberian Peninsula
topic Climate change
Global climate models
Iberian Peninsula
description This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Soares, P. M. M., Lemos, G., & Lima, D. C. A. (2023). Critical analysis of CMIPs past climate model projections in a regional context: The Iberian climate. International Journal of Climatology, 1– 21, which has been published in final form at https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7973. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Use of Self-Archived Versions. This article may not be enhanced, enriched or otherwise transformed into a derivative work, without express permission from Wiley or by statutory rights under applicable legislation. Copyright notices must not be removed, obscured or modified. The article must be linked to Wiley’s version of record on Wiley Online Library and any embedding, framing or otherwise making available the article or pages thereof by third parties from platforms, services and websites other than Wiley Online Library must be prohibited.
publishDate 2022
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2022-12-23
2022-12-23T00:00:00Z
2023-12-24T01:32:20Z
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10451/55941
url http://hdl.handle.net/10451/55941
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv Soares, P. M. M., Lemos, G., & Lima, D. C. A. (2023). Critical analysis of CMIPs past climate model projections in a regional context: The Iberian climate. International Journal of Climatology, 1– 21. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7973
10.1002/joc.7973
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Wiley
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Wiley
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
instacron:RCAAP
instname_str Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
instacron_str RCAAP
institution RCAAP
reponame_str Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
collection Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
repository.name.fl_str_mv Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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