Quantifying the uncertainty in the Soil Conservation Service flood hydropraphs: a case study in the Azores Islands
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2013 |
Outros Autores: | , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
Texto Completo: | http://repositorio.lnec.pt:8080/jspui/handle/123456789/1006380 |
Resumo: | Flash flooding is characterised by a rapid flooding phenomenon caused by intense rainfall. Despite being an extreme event with high uncertainty, the rainfall-run-off process is often regarded as deterministic (rather than stochastic). In this paper, the Soil Conservation Service (SCS) flood hydrograph uncertainty is quantified based on the Total Error Framework (TEF), and introduced into the model by applying perturbation in the input data and model parameters. The random perturbation component is stochastically modelled. A sensitivity analysis was carried out on the stochastic model parameters, using a real case study in the Azores (Portugal). The results showed that the flood hydrograph uncertainty varies over time, with its largest deviations occurring at the beginning of the flooding because of the uncertainty associated with the SCS method curve number parameter (correlation coefficient R2 of 0.86). Rainfall uncertainty was responsible for the uncertainty in the hydrograph peaks’ magnitude (R2 = 0.93) while uncertainty in the propagation velocity was responsible for the uncertainty in the peaks’ time (R2 = 0.97). |
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spelling |
Quantifying the uncertainty in the Soil Conservation Service flood hydropraphs: a case study in the Azores IslandsFlash floodingLack of dataScs methodStochastic modelsUncertaintyFlash flooding is characterised by a rapid flooding phenomenon caused by intense rainfall. Despite being an extreme event with high uncertainty, the rainfall-run-off process is often regarded as deterministic (rather than stochastic). In this paper, the Soil Conservation Service (SCS) flood hydrograph uncertainty is quantified based on the Total Error Framework (TEF), and introduced into the model by applying perturbation in the input data and model parameters. The random perturbation component is stochastically modelled. A sensitivity analysis was carried out on the stochastic model parameters, using a real case study in the Azores (Portugal). The results showed that the flood hydrograph uncertainty varies over time, with its largest deviations occurring at the beginning of the flooding because of the uncertainty associated with the SCS method curve number parameter (correlation coefficient R2 of 0.86). Rainfall uncertainty was responsible for the uncertainty in the hydrograph peaks’ magnitude (R2 = 0.93) while uncertainty in the propagation velocity was responsible for the uncertainty in the peaks’ time (R2 = 0.97).2014-08-22T15:15:20Z2014-10-20T12:58:27Z2017-04-12T14:45:49Z2013-09-01T00:00:00Z2013-09info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://repositorio.lnec.pt:8080/jspui/handle/123456789/1006380eng1753-318XLeandro, J.Leitão, J. P.Lima, J.info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2024-01-13T03:02:15Zoai:localhost:123456789/1006380Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-20T01:38:29.783492Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Quantifying the uncertainty in the Soil Conservation Service flood hydropraphs: a case study in the Azores Islands |
title |
Quantifying the uncertainty in the Soil Conservation Service flood hydropraphs: a case study in the Azores Islands |
spellingShingle |
Quantifying the uncertainty in the Soil Conservation Service flood hydropraphs: a case study in the Azores Islands Leandro, J. Flash flooding Lack of data Scs method Stochastic models Uncertainty |
title_short |
Quantifying the uncertainty in the Soil Conservation Service flood hydropraphs: a case study in the Azores Islands |
title_full |
Quantifying the uncertainty in the Soil Conservation Service flood hydropraphs: a case study in the Azores Islands |
title_fullStr |
Quantifying the uncertainty in the Soil Conservation Service flood hydropraphs: a case study in the Azores Islands |
title_full_unstemmed |
Quantifying the uncertainty in the Soil Conservation Service flood hydropraphs: a case study in the Azores Islands |
title_sort |
Quantifying the uncertainty in the Soil Conservation Service flood hydropraphs: a case study in the Azores Islands |
author |
Leandro, J. |
author_facet |
Leandro, J. Leitão, J. P. Lima, J. |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Leitão, J. P. Lima, J. |
author2_role |
author author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Leandro, J. Leitão, J. P. Lima, J. |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Flash flooding Lack of data Scs method Stochastic models Uncertainty |
topic |
Flash flooding Lack of data Scs method Stochastic models Uncertainty |
description |
Flash flooding is characterised by a rapid flooding phenomenon caused by intense rainfall. Despite being an extreme event with high uncertainty, the rainfall-run-off process is often regarded as deterministic (rather than stochastic). In this paper, the Soil Conservation Service (SCS) flood hydrograph uncertainty is quantified based on the Total Error Framework (TEF), and introduced into the model by applying perturbation in the input data and model parameters. The random perturbation component is stochastically modelled. A sensitivity analysis was carried out on the stochastic model parameters, using a real case study in the Azores (Portugal). The results showed that the flood hydrograph uncertainty varies over time, with its largest deviations occurring at the beginning of the flooding because of the uncertainty associated with the SCS method curve number parameter (correlation coefficient R2 of 0.86). Rainfall uncertainty was responsible for the uncertainty in the hydrograph peaks’ magnitude (R2 = 0.93) while uncertainty in the propagation velocity was responsible for the uncertainty in the peaks’ time (R2 = 0.97). |
publishDate |
2013 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2013-09-01T00:00:00Z 2013-09 2014-08-22T15:15:20Z 2014-10-20T12:58:27Z 2017-04-12T14:45:49Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://repositorio.lnec.pt:8080/jspui/handle/123456789/1006380 |
url |
http://repositorio.lnec.pt:8080/jspui/handle/123456789/1006380 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
1753-318X |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação instacron:RCAAP |
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Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
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RCAAP |
institution |
RCAAP |
reponame_str |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
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Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
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Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
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1799136868810358784 |