Forecast spectral wave model for the West Portuguese Coast

• Autor(a) principal: Fernandes, André Filipe Morgado
• Data de Publicação: 2020
• Tipo de documento: Dissertação
• Idioma: eng
• Título da fonte: Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
• Texto Completo: http://hdl.handle.net/10773/29837

This work consists in the validation of a 3rd generation spectral model for the West Coast of Portugal, through a comparative analysis between the observations made by wave buoys and the results of a model. In particular, it is intended to assess in detail the performance of the model under more energetic conditions, to propose possible solutions and improvements that allow for more accurate prediction of extreme events.. The three meteo-oceanographic platforms maintained by the Hydrographic Institute (IH), the Alfredo Ramalho buoy in Leix˜oes, the MONICAN1 buoy in Nazar´e and the maritime buoy in Leix˜oes are the observation points considered for model validation. The modelling system used is based on the WAVEWATCH III ocean spectral model and is characterized by a nested domain configuration, forced globally by the GFS model produced by the NCEP and locally by the European Centre for MediumRange Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The method used is to compare observations and model results, using various statistical parameters that allowed quantifying the model accuracy. During energetic conditions, forecasts have strong correlations with observations (above 0.80). Overall, the model predictions underestimate significant wave height values of approximately 0.3 m, and the model makes a better prediction when the waves are from the N-NW quadrant. To improve the forecasting method and its validation, it is necessary to use data assimilation methodologies, such as obtained through remote sensing.