Exploring spatial patterns and drivers of forest fires in Portugal (1980–2014)
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2016 |
Outros Autores: | , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
Texto Completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/10400.22/9265 |
Resumo: | Information on the spatial incidence of fire ignition density and burnt area, trends and drivers of wildfires is vitally important in providing support for environmental and civil protection policies, designing appropriate prevention measures and allocating firefighting resources. The key objectives of this study were to analyse the geographical incidence and temporal trends for wildfires, as well as the main drivers of fire ignition and burnt area in Portugal on a municipal level. The results show that fires are not distributed uniformly throughout Portuguese territory, both in terms of ignition density and burnt area. One spot in the north-western area is well defined, covering 10% of the municipalities where more than one third of the total fire ignitions are concentrated. In > 80% of Portuguese municipalities, ignition density has registered a positive trend since the 1980s. With regard to burnt area, 60% of the municipalities had a nil annual trend, 35% showed a positive trend and 5%, located mainly in the central region, revealed negative trends. Geographically weighted regression proved more efficient in identifying the most relevant physical and anthropogenic drivers of municipal wildfires in comparison with simple linear regression models. Topography, density of population, land cover and livestock were found to be significant in both ignition density and burnt area, although considerable variations were observed in municipal explanatory power. |
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Exploring spatial patterns and drivers of forest fires in Portugal (1980–2014)Forest firesSpatial incidenceTemporal trendsGeographically weighted regressionMunicipal driversPortugalInformation on the spatial incidence of fire ignition density and burnt area, trends and drivers of wildfires is vitally important in providing support for environmental and civil protection policies, designing appropriate prevention measures and allocating firefighting resources. The key objectives of this study were to analyse the geographical incidence and temporal trends for wildfires, as well as the main drivers of fire ignition and burnt area in Portugal on a municipal level. The results show that fires are not distributed uniformly throughout Portuguese territory, both in terms of ignition density and burnt area. One spot in the north-western area is well defined, covering 10% of the municipalities where more than one third of the total fire ignitions are concentrated. In > 80% of Portuguese municipalities, ignition density has registered a positive trend since the 1980s. With regard to burnt area, 60% of the municipalities had a nil annual trend, 35% showed a positive trend and 5%, located mainly in the central region, revealed negative trends. Geographically weighted regression proved more efficient in identifying the most relevant physical and anthropogenic drivers of municipal wildfires in comparison with simple linear regression models. Topography, density of population, land cover and livestock were found to be significant in both ignition density and burnt area, although considerable variations were observed in municipal explanatory power.ElsevierRepositório Científico do Instituto Politécnico do PortoNunes, ANLourenço, LMeira Castro, Ana C.20162116-01-01T00:00:00Z2016-01-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.22/9265eng0048-969710.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.03.121metadata only accessinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2023-03-13T12:50:33ZPortal AgregadorONG |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Exploring spatial patterns and drivers of forest fires in Portugal (1980–2014) |
title |
Exploring spatial patterns and drivers of forest fires in Portugal (1980–2014) |
spellingShingle |
Exploring spatial patterns and drivers of forest fires in Portugal (1980–2014) Nunes, AN Forest fires Spatial incidence Temporal trends Geographically weighted regression Municipal drivers Portugal |
title_short |
Exploring spatial patterns and drivers of forest fires in Portugal (1980–2014) |
title_full |
Exploring spatial patterns and drivers of forest fires in Portugal (1980–2014) |
title_fullStr |
Exploring spatial patterns and drivers of forest fires in Portugal (1980–2014) |
title_full_unstemmed |
Exploring spatial patterns and drivers of forest fires in Portugal (1980–2014) |
title_sort |
Exploring spatial patterns and drivers of forest fires in Portugal (1980–2014) |
author |
Nunes, AN |
author_facet |
Nunes, AN Lourenço, L Meira Castro, Ana C. |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Lourenço, L Meira Castro, Ana C. |
author2_role |
author author |
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
Repositório Científico do Instituto Politécnico do Porto |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Nunes, AN Lourenço, L Meira Castro, Ana C. |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Forest fires Spatial incidence Temporal trends Geographically weighted regression Municipal drivers Portugal |
topic |
Forest fires Spatial incidence Temporal trends Geographically weighted regression Municipal drivers Portugal |
description |
Information on the spatial incidence of fire ignition density and burnt area, trends and drivers of wildfires is vitally important in providing support for environmental and civil protection policies, designing appropriate prevention measures and allocating firefighting resources. The key objectives of this study were to analyse the geographical incidence and temporal trends for wildfires, as well as the main drivers of fire ignition and burnt area in Portugal on a municipal level. The results show that fires are not distributed uniformly throughout Portuguese territory, both in terms of ignition density and burnt area. One spot in the north-western area is well defined, covering 10% of the municipalities where more than one third of the total fire ignitions are concentrated. In > 80% of Portuguese municipalities, ignition density has registered a positive trend since the 1980s. With regard to burnt area, 60% of the municipalities had a nil annual trend, 35% showed a positive trend and 5%, located mainly in the central region, revealed negative trends. Geographically weighted regression proved more efficient in identifying the most relevant physical and anthropogenic drivers of municipal wildfires in comparison with simple linear regression models. Topography, density of population, land cover and livestock were found to be significant in both ignition density and burnt area, although considerable variations were observed in municipal explanatory power. |
publishDate |
2016 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2016 2016-01-01T00:00:00Z 2116-01-01T00:00:00Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/10400.22/9265 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10400.22/9265 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
0048-9697 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.03.121 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
metadata only access info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
metadata only access |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Elsevier |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Elsevier |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação instacron:RCAAP |
instname_str |
Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
instacron_str |
RCAAP |
institution |
RCAAP |
reponame_str |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
collection |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
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repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
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1777302319586607104 |